DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.12.168448

Authors: Mikhail V. Rodchenkov

Abstract: This study examines the impact of extreme temperatures on energy-sector companies, highlighting the financial and economic consequences of these temperatures as an important aspect of financial performance analysis. The research methodology is based on the application of regression models to corporate financial statements. This research obtained statistically significant evidence of a relationship among asset structure, financial flows, and external temperature for 55 publicly traded energy companies from 20 countries. The transformation of asset and cost structures is a necessary adaptation measure for companies operating in regions with harsh climates; the results reveal a significant excess of capital expenditures over operating expenses under such conditions. This study identified changes in the structure of financial flows that increased the financial burden and reduced investment attractiveness for these companies. The J-factor’s nonlinear function reflects greater variability in operating conditions at low temperatures than at high temperatures, explaining contradictions in capitalization between regions with hot and extremely cold climates. The forced nature of the changes and the involvement of many sectoral players heighten the challenges in finding solutions to ensure market fairness and mitigate the uneven impact of climate change on businesses in colder regions. This study’s results partially explain inconsistencies in tariff setting and product cost coordination among companies in regions with extreme climates and those in more temperate areas and outline the contours of required management decisions at the global, national, and corporate levels. The author expresses sincere gratitude to the attendees of the Lomonosov Readings in April 2025 and the 52nd EBES conference in Istanbul in July 2025 for their insightful comments. The author also thanks Professor Viktor Suyts for his continuous support and the companies that provided financial statements and valuable comments for this study.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.168943

Authors: Irina V. Kryachko, Henry I. Penikas

Abstract: In April 2025, the United States abruptly announced exceptionally high tariffs on imports from more than 180 countries (levels not seen in nearly 150 years) shocking the global economy. Within a week, most measures were postponed for 90 days (until July 9, 2025), but tariffs on Chinese goods were retained and, immediately prior to implementation, were raised to as high as 145%. China responded by increasing tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%. U.S. equity markets fell by about 10% in the week following the announcement but nearly recovered in May amid speculation that the measures might be withdrawn. By August 2025, headline U.S–China tariff rates converged to roughly 55% and 33%, respectively. Notably, neither country raised duties on Russian imports. Existing assessments (e.g., Yale Budget Lab) focus primarily on the United States. We extend the analysis to Russia and to as many large economies as global input–output tables allow. Using both aggregate and highly disaggregated inter-industry and cross-country linkages within a Leontief framework, we obtain U.S. effects comparable to prior estimates, while the estimated impact on Russian prices and output is negligible. Because substitution and trade rerouting are excluded from the baseline, our results should be interpreted as conservative, lower-bound estimates.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.146303

Authors: Heba Helmy

Abstract: We aim to show how any variants of a unified currency among BRICS Plus countries are challengeable, by probing the disparate influence of the positive and negative alterations in the crude oil’s international price on the real effective exchange rates. The paper applies the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach to separate oil price upswings from downswings and assesses how such changes asymmetrically affect the real effective exchange rates of BRICS Plus members in the short and long runs using monthly time series variables from January 2000 until July 2023. Our findings reveal that in the short run, the asymmetric impacts of the positive and negative oil price changes on the real effective exchange rates appear in all BRICS Plus countries. In the long run, Brazil and Argentina confirmed the asymmetric impact of oil price changes on their real effective exchange rates, while the symmetric impact is confirmed in Russia, the United Arab Emirates, and Ethiopia. Our findings prove that a unified currency or a unified monetary union is a very challenging idea, as continuous appreciations or depreciations of the local currencies of BRICS Plus countries will have to be implemented to preserve their alignment with the composite currency unit. Moreover, the asymmetric responses will induce diverse policy recommendations concerning the oil pricing. Our study comes to fill a vital lacuna in the literature as it is the first study to probe the asymmetric association between the oil’s international price and the real effective exchange rate in the BRICS Plus countries.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.125317

Authors: Maribel Aponte-Garcia

Abstract: In response to international sanctions, Russia has restructured its hydrocarbon commerce through trade deflection, redirecting exports from sanctioning to non-sanctioning countries. The research aimed to analyze hydrocarbon trade deflection under the Russia–Ukraine conflict within the context of the China–Russia Strategic Partnership and BRICS, and to assess the restructuring of Russia’s crude oil and natural gas supply chains from 2020 to 2023. Two questions were addressed: Whether trade deflection shifted towards non-sanctioning countries, including China and other BRICS countries; whether Russia’s oil and gas supply chains were restructured towards these regions? Design incorporates the method developed by the author which generates and utilizes an integrated database of Bill of Lading and export data to analyze supply-chain trade restructuring, identifying specific shifts in trade flows by product, country, and enterprises. Findings reflected that after sanctions were imposed in early 2022, Russian hydrocarbon exports to sanctioning countries declined sharply, while exports to non-sanctioning countries, particularly China and India, increased significantly. Findings demonstrate the effectiveness of trade deflection as a strategic response to sanctions. This strategy has mitigated the adverse impacts on Russian oil and gas industry, with significant increases in exports to China and India. The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with China has helped secure a substantial market for Russian crude oil and increased China’s energy security. This study enhances understanding of trade deflection mechanisms and provides a framework for analyzing the interplay between international trade, geopolitical strategies, and economic resilience. Geopolitical alliances and trade partnerships have ensured resilience and continuity in global trade. This shift indicates strategic diversification towards Asian markets and increased Central Asian involvement. BRICS engagement has provided Russia with a platform to advocate for energy security and challenge Western dominance in global energy governance. Future research should explore other supply-chain components and analyze trade within the BRICS+ group and Russia–China bilateral trade.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.124364

Authors: Duc Huu Nguyen, Irina P. Khominich

Abstract: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, along with the imposition of energy sanctions on Russian energy sources, has prompted a reassessment of the global energy market. Utilizing the difference in differences model, this study investigates the financial performance disparities among fossil fuel companies operating within the EU-27 bloc, Russia, and countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Qatar, Norway, India, China, UAE, and Saudi Arabia (countries that have benefitted from exporting fossil energy to the EU-27 as an alternative to Russia) during the period spanning from 2016 to 2023. The result reveals that fossil fuel companies from the United States, the United Kingdom, Qatar, Norway, India, China, UAE, and Saudi Arabia experienced significant advantages from substituting Russia in supplying oil, natural gas, and LNG to the EU-27. This is evidenced by a notable enhancement in their financial performance compared to both Russian and EU-27-based fossil fuel companies. For fossil fuel companies, the study highlights the urgency of diversifying export and import markets, broadening partnerships for fossil fuel trading and refining, transitioning to the production of lower-emission energy forms, and enhancing sustainable development practices to mitigate risks. At the national level, the research results indicate that countries reliant on imported fossil energy, akin to most countries within the EU-27, must swiftly diversify their energy sources and focus on developing renewable energy. This strategy is crucial to avoid unexpected shocks in the energy market in the era of geopolitical conflicts and uncertainty.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.112818

Authors: Tatiana G. Nefedova, Andrey I. Treivish

Abstract: This article delves into the proliferation of dacha as a second / temporary country residence for urbanites in Russia. The phenomenon is viewed from a socio-cultural and economic perspective, uncovering the reasons behind their popularity among Russian city dwellers­. These reasons are related to the geographical, historical, and economic features of the nation as well as to the evolution of rural areas and agriculture across various zones. The article analyzes the diversity of second homes, their types, quantities as well as ­preferences and activities of dacha dwellers (dachniks), their socio-economic composition­ and the challenges they face, contingent on the geographic location of these estates and the demand for them among specific urban groups. It is found that the interaction ­between dachniks who come from urban centers, local communities, and rural economies, as well as the distinctive facets of dacha life, vary markedly depending on the natural and socio-economic conditions, which are largely shaped by the remoteness of a place from cities. Special emphasis is put on the distribution and distinctiveness of dachas in the Non-Black Earth zone regions of central Russia, where their prevalence and significance are especially pronounced.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.112008

Authors: Yulia N. Nikulina

Abstract: Contributing to a discussion on rural employment forecast in Russia, this paper sys­tematizes the challenges for the rural labor market: population outflow, weak impulses to develop non-agricultural employment and rural entrepreneurship, changing labor needs in agriculture and a decline in the number of labor migrants. The results of the regional differentiation research show that the response strategies of Russian regions to stabilize employment differ significantly and include active intra-Russian labor migration or reliance on high agricultural state support, development of self-employment and jobs preservation in labor-intensive, low-productivity sectors of agricultural production. The article discusses rural development prospects associated with the return migration of urban residents to rural areas, which creates a new basis for rural employment growth. A theoretical implication of the rural employment perspectives discussion is the proposed concept of “out-of-urban employment” that actualizes the traditional approach of seeking employment only for indigenous rural people who have lost their jobs in agriculture, and includes new types and forms of employment for urban dwellers. Analysis of the current state support for rural employment in Russia shows that it is poorly aligned with the existing challenges. The scale of both financing and the number of potential participants is small; direct support measures are limited to the agricultural sector, while indirect ones — through support for rural infrastructure — create mainly public sector employment. The practical implications of the outcomes are some proposed ways of developing measures to support rural employment, taking into account non-agricultural rural economy needs.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.109490

Authors: Marina S. Petukhova, Evgeny V. Rudoy, Nadezhda V. Orlova

Abstract: This article is the first attempt by the authors to formulate key trends in the field of rural development. The main tool is a bibliometric analysis based on the Scopus database. In 2021, the priority areas of scientific research are rural tourism, environmental problems in rural areas, the creation of engineering infrastructure, sustainable rural communities as well as climate change and its impact on rural areas. In the course of the study, the authors found that the interest in rural development is growing rapidly: tenfold from 2000 to 2021. We proposed to divide the directions of scientific research into two groups: lower and upper levels. Developed countries are focused on leading research areas, less developed — on the lowest. These include problems of rural poverty, infrastructure, rural population outflow and depopulation. The authors also conducted a desk study to identify key trends in rural development. The projection of these trends onto Russian rural areas opens up new windows of opportunity for them. These are the diversification of the rural economy through rural tourism and the development of alternative types of employment, the establishment of eco-settlements, the production of environmentally friendly farm products, and the creation of new rural settlements in areas that will become climatically favorable as a result of the projected climate change.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.116841

Authors: Alexey S. Naumov

Abstract: N.a.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.83891

Authors: Henry I. Penikas, Ekaterina E. Vasilyeva

Abstract: The Basel Committee recommended the use of input-output tables to properly measure climate risks. However, the majority of previous studies only limits the use of input-output tables to carbon emissions and this is not applied in climate risk ratings. The existing climate (E) risk ratings (scores) was modified or transformed from Sustainalytics to the full climate risk scores using input-output tables. Positive relationship between credit risks and the full climate risk estimates at the industry level was identified, and this justifies the interest rate discount granted to firms in the green industries. Thus, for the purpose of lending the full degree of greenness derived from input-output tables should be considered, not substituting this by the easily observable and publicly available marginal climate risk ratings like those provided by Sustainalytics.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.90850

Authors: Ekaterina A. Galaktionova, Nataliya A. Karlova

Abstract: It is often taken for granted that food loss and waste (FLW) reduction leads to better food security on the local, national and global levels. However, in reality, relations between food security and FLW are not direct, and reduction of food losses and even the increase of food availability do not automatically mean the rise in affordability and access for the most vulnerable people. In this paper, the authors explore food losses on the example­ of grain primary production and chicken meat processing in Russia. They identify the causes of food losses in each case and provide a number of possible solutions for food loss reduction. However, it is also highlighted and explained in the paper why not every measure to reduce food loss will result in better food security overall and the increase of well-being for the most vulnerable population.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.79738

Authors: Thuy Ngoc Nguyen, Tuyen Quang Tran, Huong Van Vu

Abstract: Vietnam is a country that found itself at the center of the Indochina wars and was subjected to the most intense aerial bombing in history. However, little research has been done on the effect of unexploded ordnance (UXO) contamination on household livelihoods in rural Vietnam. In this paper, we investigate the contaminating effect of unexploded ordnance on households. Livelihood choices are classified by cluster analysis techniques, and unexploded ordnance contamination is measured at the district level by the proportion of land at risk from unexploded bombs and mines. We examine the effect of UXO contamination on livelihood choices using a multinomial logit model, controlling for various important household and regional level characteristics. It was found that households in districts with greater contamination were less likely to adopt a formal wage-earning livelihood, characterized by higher income and less poverty, than they were to engage in an agricultural livelihood. This suggests that the Indochina wars have had a long-running effect, reducing the likelihood of non-farm diversification, which in turn diminishes economic well-being among rural households in Vietnam.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.78613

Authors: Ekaterina A. Galaktionova, Melanie Kok, Hilke Bos-Brouwers

Abstract: In 2015, all 193 UN member countries agreed to halve global food loss and waste by the year 2030. At national level, the first step is usually to measure the extent of the problem and set targets. Countries that initiate the inventory of their national food loss and waste (FLW), frequently find out that first, the amount of FLW is bigger than was initially anticipated, and second, that there are massive data gaps, including quality, granularity, representativeness, collaboration and prioritization etc. Russia is no exception. In this article, we will make an overview of what is already happening in Russia regarding the FLW issue and what can be learned from international examples—mainly, the Netherlands. Despite many existing methodologies and practices being limited in their scope, reach, accuracy etc., it is more important to select what is appropriate and/or feasible now than wait for an invention of a perfect quantification methodology in an unforeseeable future.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.78331

Authors: Anton S. Strokov, Vladimir Y. Potashnikov

Abstract: The paper analyses the current ecological consequences of agricultural growth in Russia’s main regions (oblast level) during 2011–2019. Our main hypothesis was that local environ­mental risks, like waste concentration, would be closely related to global climate risks such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the production of crops, meat, milk, eggs, and from land use change (LUC) activities leading to a larger carbon footprint. We first analyze official data for agricultural waste and find that 30% of it is concentrated in just two regions (Belgorod and Kursk), while they produce only 10% of agricultural value of Russia. Next, we find that manure nutrients have a high concentration in regions where the livestock production is not balanced with appropriate nutrient use on croplands (Dagestan, Astrakhan, Leningrad, and Pskov regions) which might lead to the pollution of soils and local waters. Next, we test the GLOBIOM partial equilibrium model to evaluate proper agricultural protein production quantities in Russian regions and respective GHG emissions from crop, livestock and land use change activities. We find that 21% of the GHG emission in 2019 came from the conversion of former abandoned agricultural land into cropland (starting from 2011). While some regions such as Krasnodar, Rostov, and Stavropol increase productivity with low carbon footprint, others, like Amur and Bryansk, increase production by cropland expansion without respective productivity growth which leads to higher carbon footprint. Our results for livestock operations show that the main hypothesis did not hold up because regions which increase meat production, like Belgorod, Kursk, Pskov, and Leningrad, have a lower carbon footprint due to the production of pork meat and poultry which have lower GHG emissions due to specific digestion. On the other hand, these regions experience a higher environmental footprint due to the large concentration of waste which could be harmful for local eco­systems. Finally, we use the model to project possible future development up to 2030. Our results show the possible growth of crop and livestock products in most of the regions driven by external demand for food. The extensive scenario shows additional GHG emissions from cropland expansion, while the intensive scenario reveals a larger growth rate accompanied by productivity growth and lower carbon footprint, which is essential in harmonizing the current agricultural and climate policy of Russia.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.78314

Authors: Marina S. Petukhova

Abstract: The innovative development of the grain sector develops in a wave-like manner, with alternating periods of growth and decline in the yield indicator. The innovation activity of agricultural organizations is currently increasing. The analysis shows the industry’s transition to a new technological stage. The priority directions of scientific and technological development are the technologies of grain yield increase, such as biotechnologies of effective accelerated breeding and intensive technologies in seed production; precision farming; biological and organic farming, as well as advanced technologies’ phytomelioration.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.78430

Authors: Nadezhda V. Orlova, Dmitry V. Nikolaev

Abstract: For the last 10–15 years, Russia has become the key player in the world agricultural market. Increasing export volume up to $45 billion by 2025 is the ambitious plan of the Russian Government. Windows of opportunity that create fundamentally new prospects for increasing competitiveness are opened mainly during the period of changing technological patterns, such as the current transition of the world’s agriculture towards Agriculture 4.0 paradigm. This is crucial for further economic growth. Information for this article was prepared based on “desk research” methods and then all data and hypotheses obtained were tested by conducting detailed in-depth interviews with key industry decision makers. According to the results of research there has been a huge interest on the part of business to implement innovative solutions in agriculture. Yet significant institutional constraints, problems in the legislative and regulatory sectors, the absence of a system of transfer or commercialization of technology from research center to the final manufacturer are still present. At the same time, all the instruments of state support are currently configured only for conventional, as opposed to innovative agriculture.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.80597

Authors: Margaret M. Zeigler, Ann Steensland

Abstract: Agriculture and food systems must provide nutrition and agricultural products for nearly 10 billion people by 2050. Agriculture is a powerful economic driver, and by prioritizing agricultural productivity and innovation, food systems can become more resilient and improve the wider economy while generating employment. Yet, powerful solutions and approaches are needed that must move beyond “low-hanging fruit” when investing in low-income country agriculture systems. As part of the solution, we discuss innovations such as participatory research models from the International Potato Center (CIP) as well as how to unlock and harness existing plant genetics through the phytobiome.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.78376

Authors: Alisher Mirzabaev, Joachim von Braun

Abstract: Achievement of Sustainable Development Goals critically depends on well-functioning food systems which can provide sufficient and healthy food for all in an environmentally sustainable, economically viable and socially equitable manner. However, current food systems are failing on all of these dimensions. In fact, food systems are generating substantial amounts of environmental, health-related, social, and economic externalities negatively affecting the well-being of present and future generations of people, particularly that of the poorest and most vulnerable. True cost accounting approaches, a research frontier in sustainability sciences, seek to comprehensively measure these so far unaccounted externalities from food systems to propose solutions for addressing their negative social welfare effects. Contributing to discussions on true costs of food, this paper traces the environmental costs of ecosystems degradation due to cropland expansion during the period of 2001 to 2009 at the global level. The results show that cropland expansion caused by growing food demands has led to the degradation of 511 million hectares of higher value forest, woodland, shrubland and grassland ecosystems globally, with the total economic costs equaling 435 billion U.S. dollars. This means that each year the global community is incurring 54 billion U.S. dollars of externality costs from food systems because of cropland expansion alone. Addressing this problem requires a flexible government regulation combining incentive mechanisms such as payments for ecosystem services and carbon pricing, with legislative deterrents, e. g., environmentally friendly cadastral planning, fines, and taxes. Current research on true cost accounting is primarily focused on identifying the extent of externalities from food systems. However, knowledge does not always automatically translate into action. The key impetus for future actions for true pricing of food would come from closing knowledge gaps on transaction costs for the implementation of true pricing and the development of innovative solutions for reducing them.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.7.57933

Authors: Irina Tarasenko

Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports and imports of a range of goods between Russia and its 70 trading partners from 2004 until 2018. The goods in question fall into eight product categories, as follows: (i) agricultural raw materials­; (ii) chemicals; (iii) food; (iv) fuels; (v) manufactured goods; (vi) ores and metals­; (vii) textiles; and (viii) machinery and transport equipment. Exchange rate volatility­ is measured using the standard deviation of the first difference in the logarithmic daily nominal exchange rate. The paper concludes that exchange rate volatility had a negative impact on exports of agricultural raw materials, manufactured goods, and machinery and transport equipment. In contrast, it was found to have a positive and significant impact on trade in fuels and imports of chemicals and textiles.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.6.55450

Authors: Emre Hatipoglu, Saleh Al Muhanna, Brian Efird

Abstract: The development of renewable energy is often treated as a purely positive outcome for the world, without consideration of the challenges that come with implementation at scale, which will inevitably follow with the process of a global energy transition. Studies on the political process of the transition to a world of renewables are scarce. This article provides a review on the geopolitical, institutional, and technological aspects of the development of renewable energy sources, including transportation and delivery of energy across national borders. At scale internationally, renewable energy will present many of the same issues as other mature sources of energy. Security, export interdependence, and the availability of source materials will all become increasingly important concerns.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.6.55177

Authors: Vyatcheslav A. Kulagin, Dmitry A. Grushevenko, Nikita O. Kapustin

Abstract: The global energy sector is undergoing a global transformation under the influence of technological breakthroughs in several sectors of production and consumption, as well as profound socioeconomic changes in approaches to energy use. This process became known as “energy transition.” In this paper, the authors investigate the long-term impact of the energy transition and related processes on the markets of key fossil fuels: oil, natural gas, and coal. Research shows that all fossil fuel sectors will face a significant increase in competition, both within traditional markets and from other energy sources, due to the development of inter-fuel competition. At the same time, energy policies and efforts to combat greenhouse gas emissions will mostly determine the energy balances of the largest countries, and will have an even greater impact on the market. Natural gas, as the most environmentally friendly of fossil fuels, with a large potential to supplement the generation of new renewable energy sources (NRES), will be the least impaired by the energy transition. In the next 20 years, its consumption and production are expected to grow significantly. Oil is under serious pressure from environmental legislation and growing inter-fuel competition in the transport sector. It is highly likely that consumption will peak before 2040, yet the depletion of traditional resources is supporting prices. The coal market is set for an almost inevitable reduction in consumption. New technologies for capturing emissions can only partially mitigate the rate of coal use decline.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.6.55196

Authors: Alexey A. Makarov, Tatyana A. Mitrova, Vyacheslav A. Kulagin

Abstract: The world energy sector is entering a period of transformation, defined by the emergence of a whole range of cost-effective technologies and the formation of new state priorities that can radically change the structure of energy use. The calculations of the development of world energy markets for the period up to 2040 were made using economic and mathematical optimization modeling based on the ERI RAS SCANER model complex, for two scenarios: Conservative (maintaining key benchmarks and regulatory measures within the framework of existing energy policies, as well as incremental development of technologies without major breakthroughs) and Energy Transition (assuming ambitious goals in the field of reducing emissions, as well as accelerated technology development). The results of calculations show that the growth rate of primary energy consumption will slow down significantly. Renewable energy sources (RES) will be able to provide up to 35–50% of electricity production and up to a quarter of the world’s energy consumption by 2040, while the share of fossil fuels will decline. Oil and coal will pass the peak of consumption before 2040. This will not only lead to a radical change in the price environment of energy markets, but also to a transformation of the way they are organized and regulated, as well as to a revision of business models of most energy companies.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.6.55478

Authors: Kirsten Westphal

Abstract: Russia is the world’s largest gas exporter and Germany is its most important market. Moreover, natural gas is a centerpiece of the Russian economy and the backbone of its energy supply to the Russian population. In terms of its external gas relations, Germany has always kept a special and strategic position, both in terms of volumes, but also in substance. This contribution explores the impact of the energy transition on the bilateral gas relationship. It argues that the bilateral gas relationship has been subjected to various paradigm shifts in the past, but, until recently, the relationship has been seen as in line with the strategic energy triangle of climate change/sustainability, supply security and economic competitiveness. This perception has come into question over two issues: climate change and supply security. Moreover, Germany’s authority over the conduct and the legal framework of bilateral gas relations has been increasingly contested, by Brussels, but also horizontally by other EU member states. At this stage, it is very uncertain whether both sides will manage to maintain and redefine their close energy partnership to address climate change. Decarbonizing the gas value chain would be a centerpiece. This would require a political shift away from securitization to decarbonization, not only in Germany, but even more so in the EU, and in particular, in Russia.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.6.58683

Authors: Leonid M. Grigoryev, Dzhanneta D. Medzhidova

Abstract: The international community has become increasingly concerned with sustainable development and particularly with preventing climate change. The COVID-19 pandemic and global recession of 2020 will exacerbate the situation not just for 2020–2021, but for many years to come. Sadly, it is a game-changer. The necessity to solve problems of poverty (energy poverty) and inequality, as well as growth and climate change mitigation, now haunts intellectuals, forecasters, and politicians. These three problems constitute the global energy trilemma (GET). There is a wide range of forecasts, scenarios, and political plans emerging after the Paris Agreement in 2015. They demonstrate concerns about the slow progress on the matter; however, they still increase the goals for 2030–2050. The global capital formation is a key tool for changes while also representing the hard-budget investment constraints. This article examines practical features of recent trends in energy, poverty, and climate change mitigation, arguing that allocation and coordinated management of sufficient financial resources are vital for a simultaneous solution of GET. No group of countries can hope to solve each of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) separately. The global economy has reached the point where it has an urgent need for cooperation.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.6.55375

Authors: Manfred Hafner, Pier Paolo Raimondi

Abstract: As decarbonization and climate policy are gaining relevance in the European Union (EU) energy policy, the present paper seeks to present both priorities and challenges for of the EU energy transition. As priorities, we outline the key targets and initiatives proposed and set by the European institutions in relation to the energy matters. The EU identifies renewable energy sources, energy efficiency and reduction of the greenhouse gas (GHG) as the three pillars to achieve its carbon neutrality. The final goal for to the EU energy and climate targets is to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. Nevertheless, since given energy policy is being a “shared competence” between the EU institutions and Member States, each Member State plays a critical role for the achievement of the EU energy transition. Different socioeconomic structures and the energy mix across Europe have caused the implementation process of each EU target to develop at a different pace among European countries. We illustrate this drawing on four countries: Italy, the UK, Germany and Poland. We assess their political commitment to the energy transition and their actions regarding energy transformation. These four countries are only an example of the different pace in the implementation of the EU energy and climate targets. The last part of the paper is devoted to the ambitious plan, called Green New Deal, launched by the present Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen. It sets key priorities, reaffirming European commitments to the energy and climate transition. However, the plan faces significant obstacles. For example, division among Member States (North-South and West-East) might be a factor that could undermine the achievement of the European energy transition, due to multiple and divergent interests (also on the future role of the energy transition in the aftermath of COVID-19 and the resulting economic crisis). Another challenge is constituted by popular opposition, especially from those people that see the energy transition — and consequent economic and industrial transformation — as a potential threat to their well-being and jobs, as the French gilets jaunes show. Lastly, we explain that the European energy transition will impact also its external relations, for example with Russia, proposing how the two blocs can preserve their energy relationship in light of the energy transition, notably through the conversion of natural gas to hydrogen and storing/using the resulting CO2.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.6.55105

Authors: Jonathan Stern

Abstract: The role of gases in the energy transition is a different, and much more immediate, issue in the EU, compared with other global regions. Net zero targets for 2050 mean that in order to retain the gas market and the extensive network infrastructure which has been developed, zero carbon gases will need to be developed, and natural gas (methane) will need to be decarbonized. Maximum availability of biomethane and hydrogen from power to gas is estimated at 100–150 billion cubic meters by 2050 (or around 25–30% of gas demand in the late 2010s. Therefore, large scale hydrogen production from reforming methane with carbon capture and storage (CCS), or pyrolysis, will be needed to maintain anything close to current demand levels. Costs of biomethane and hydrogen options are several times higher than prices of natural gas in 2019–2020. Significant financial support for decarbonization technologies — from governments and regulators — will therefore be needed in the 2020s, if they are to be available on a large scale in the 2030s and 2040s. If the EU gas community fails to advance convincing decarbonized narratives backed by investments which allow for commercialization of renewable gas and methane decarbonization technologies; and/or governments fail to create the necessary legal/fiscal and regulatory frameworks to support these technologies, then energy markets will progressively move away from gases and towards electrification.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.6.50824

Authors: Natalia Karlova, Eugenia Serova

Abstract: One of the major targets of modern agri-food policy in Russia is a significant increase of agri-food exports — almost twice as much by 2024. In this projection, China is viewed as the most promising market. However, Russia’s entrance to the Chinese market faces a number of constraints. In addition to the standard difficulties associated with Russia’s agricultural and food exports (export infrastructure constraints, expensive logistics, and import bans on certain Russian products), there are fundamental constraints on supply to China in the long-term. This paper formulates a long-term view of the prospects of, and risks associated with, introducing Russian agricultural products into the Chinese market. Methodically, the paper is based on an evaluation of competitive performance by the conventional method of measuring a country’s comparative trade advantages with the Balassa index. Also the authors use trade statistics of Comtrade, Russian and Chinese national statistic agencies, estimates of international analytical centers such as World Bank, USDA, OECD, McKinsey.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.6.49746

Authors: Renata Yanbykh, Valeriy Saraikin, Zvi Lerman

Abstract: The classification of agricultural producers by legal-organizational form (agricultural enterprises, peasant (family farms), household plots and gardening associations), traditionally used by the Russian official statistics, is outdated and masks the dynamic changes that have taken place. Due to the lack of output and sales data in 2016 agricultural census, the paper uses some assumptions to calculate the so called “standard revenue” as a measure of the potential output in each census farm. The results highlight that there is only a small share of commercial production units in Russia and there is high heterogeneity of agricultural producers within each legal-organizational farm type. Contrary to a priori expectations, a large number of household plots became commercialized between the previous census in 2006 and the latest census in 2016 and they contribute 19% of the standard revenue of all commercial census units, more than the share of family farms. These results suggest that the old classification used for statistical purposes does not reflect adequately the dynamic changes stemming from the response to market signals.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.6.49749

Authors: Saule Burkitbayeva, Johan Swinnen, Nele Warrinnier

Abstract: Food and nutrition security is at the forefront of policy making around the globe. This study focuses on a number of Eurasian countries, namely the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. From under-nutrition to various forms of malnutrition and obesity, these countries face different challenges when it comes to food and nutrition security. Over the last three decades, their situations have been affected by a number of important income shocks, including through falling remittances from relatively wealthier to poorer countries. This paper analyzes these developments and discusses how these countries have introduced policies to address food and nutrition security.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.6.49756

Authors: Olga V. Shik

Abstract: This paper presents the findings of the agriculture public expenditure review (PER) for the Russian Federation. It reviews the policy instruments and historical trends in the volumes and composition of budget support and investigates their role in recent agricultural growth. The paper also analyzes the effect of public spending in 2006–2017 on growth in agriculture using the fixed effects model and find positive effect. Support for general services is the most efficient method of agricultural spending, but in the Russian agricultural budget the subsidies to individual producers prevail. While the prevalence of the subsidies in the budget benefits the largest and most successful producers, this was part of the strategy to create strong value chains in order to compete with imports. However, the efficiency of investment support is decreasing. The paper explores the distribution of support between national and sub-national levels of budgeting system, and finds that the regionalization of support leads to market disintegration and efficiency losses.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.6.50308

Authors: William M. Liefert, Olga Liefert

Abstract: Russia has moved from being a large importer of grain, soybeans, and soybean meal during the late Soviet period to a major grain exporter. The country has become the world’s top wheat exporter, supplying 20–23 percent of total world exports in 2017–2018. This article examines how Russia’s transition from a planned to a market economy that began in the early 1990s has led to substantial restructuring of its agricultural production and trade, especially in its livestock and grain sectors. The article also discusses the consequences of that restructuring for world agricultural markets, and presents outlook for Russia’s agricultural trade. Another key development is that the country’s livestock sector contracted by about half during the 1990s, a result being Russia became a big meat importer. However, since 2000 that sector has rebounded, and meat imports (especially of chicken and pork) have fallen considerably.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.5.49472

Authors: Georg Zachmann

Abstract: There is a growing worry in the EU that a rapprochement between Russia and China can have negative implications for the EU. This paper argues that energy relations between the EU and Russia and between China and Russia influence each other. To do this, the paper analyzes interactions in oil and gas trading, electricity exchanges, energy technology exports and energy investments. No evidence for a negative spillover of developing Russia–China energy relations on the EU is found.

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DOI: 10.3897/j.ruje.4.33619

Authors: Shlomo Weber, Hans Wiesmeth

Abstract: The extent of provision of a public good often relies on social awareness and public support for it. This applies, in particular, to global reduction of greenhouse gases and its relevance for mitigating climate change. We examine the concept of “public awareness” by introducing a formal model that analyzes efforts to mitigate climate change in a setting with heterogeneous countries. In the theoretical part we examine the Nash equilibrium of the contribution game. The effects of awareness and economic parameters on mitigation efforts can be disentangled, raising the possibility of linking awareness of climate change with economic wealth. The second part provides some empirical observations and offers the rankings of countries regarding awareness for climate change, as well as an empirical relationship between awareness and economic wealth.

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DOI: 10.3897/j.ruje.4.28482

Authors: Natalya Ketenci

Abstract: This study explores the relationships between carbon emissions and their main determinants such as energy consumption, real income, international trade, level of education and level of urbanization in the Russian Federation, employing data for the period 1991–2016. Support for the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis is found in this study, stating that environment pollution decreases in Russia after income achieves a certain threshold. The ARDL bounds test is employed in order to estimate short-run and long-run relationships in the estimated model. Energy consumption, real income, education and urbanization levels are found to be significant determinants of carbon emissions, while trade openness does not have an impact. The Granger causality test indicates two-way relationships between carbon emissions and energy use, real income and education. Only a single one-way causality runs from carbon emission to trade and no causality was found between carbon emissions and level of urbanization.

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