DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.12.180870

Authors: Alexander M. Karminsky, Nikolay V. Voytov

Abstract: Digital multi-sided platforms intermediate a growing share of household expenditure, yet direct cross-country measurement of platformization remains infeasible owing to the absence of publicly available data. This paper treats platformization — defined as the ratio of household consumption expenditure intermediated by platforms to total consumer spending — as a latent variable and estimates it using a Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model for a panel of 86 countries over 2000–2023, drawing on the World Bank’s World Development Indicators. The selection of causal and reflective variables is grounded in the Aghion–Howitt endogenous growth model, operationalizing the creative destruction mechanism in the context of platform economics. The methodological contribution consists in applying a Mundlak decomposition within the MIMIC specification, separating short-run (within-country) and long-run (between-country) determinants of platformization while preserving the random-effects structure required for latent variable identification. Bootstrap analysis and leave-one-country-out procedures identify a robust core of determinants: financial depth, broadband access, regulatory quality, urbanization, and R&D expenditure (the latter exhibiting a negative between-effect interpreted as a crowding-out effect: countries with lower average R&D intensity exhibit higher platformization because they are recipients of platform technologies originating in a small number of R&D-intensive exporting economies). Country-level estimates reveal conditional β-convergence alongside persistent absolute gaps among income groups, consistent with technology diffusion under institutional heterogeneity. The resulting estimates are benchmarked against independent point estimates from the literature and can serve as a basis for cross-country comparison of platformization levels and assessment of long-run regulatory effects.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.128519

Authors: Bhagirath Baria, Ria Kusumaningrum, Anggita Suryana, Devanshi Mehta

Abstract: This paper addresses a significant gap in the existing literature on financial inclusion — namely, the dynamic instability of the impacts generated by its determinants in four major emerging market economies: Brazil, Russia, India, and China. A time-varying coefficients framework is applied to examine whether the factors shaping financial inclusion at the aggregate level produce nonlinear effects over time. The analysis covers the period from 2000–2001 to 2022–2023. A composite financial inclusion index is constructed to capture inclusion across three key dimensions — availability, access, and usage — using the distance function approach. Three classes of determinants are modeled: socio-demographic, infrastructural, and macroeconomic variables. Evidence indicates structural instability in the financial inclusion process for the BRIC economies, with several determinants exerting nonlinear impacts over time. The findings challenge the conventional assumption of time-invariant relationships between financial inclusion and its dominant determinants. The results reveal considerable temporal volatility in the effects of macroeconomic factors, including growth and inflation, on financial inclusion across emerging markets. Policymakers should adjust strategies, moving beyond assumptions of linear processes and managing dynamic, nonlinear factors more effectively to achieve universal financial inclusion.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.164511

Authors: Zainab Mourad, Mert Gül

Abstract: Despite the growing emphasis on the nexus between growth and macroeconomic indicators, research on the influence of cryptocurrencies on economic performance remains limited. This study compares the impact of two leading cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum, on economic growth, alongside inflation, market uncertainty, and oil and gold prices, using panel data from 14 countries between Q3 2015 and Q3 2023. The results demonstrate robust cross-sectional dependence, indicating that economic shocks in one country affect the entire group. Therefore, second-generation tests are employed to confirm the presence of stationarity in the variables. Except for Bitcoin’s trading volume, panel fully modified ordinary least squares estimations reveal a significantly positive impact of cryptocurrencies on growth. Cointegration is present in the long run, while in the short run, strong bi- and unidirectional causality is found for all cryptocurrency proxies. The study provides insights that can help policymakers develop strategies to align economic growth with the crypto market, benefiting the broader economy.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.154180

Authors: Wasim Ullah

Abstract: Financial development plays a crucial role in shaping economic growth, yet it can introduce volatility. This study examines the relationship between financial development and economic growth volatility. Using panel data from 60 countries (30 developed and 30 developing) for 1981–2022, we employ panel-corrected standard errors and generalized method of moments to ensure robustness. Financial development is analyzed through financial institutions and financial markets across three dimensions: depth, access, and efficiency. Conceptually, the paper finds that the supply-leading hypothesis does not account for the economic growth volatility associated with excessive financialization. The results indicate that, at higher levels, financial development has a volatility-enhancing impact in developed countries, while in developing countries it has a volatility-reducing effect. Policymakers in developed countries should ensure that credit expansion is aligned with real-sector development. Regulators should monitor adverse effects of financial depth and ensure funds are directed toward real-sector growth, while improving access and efficiency. In a too‑much-finance scenario, economies need moderators — such as strong regulatory quality and well-defined rights for creditors and borrowers — to mitigate volatility-enhancing effects.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.134875

Authors: Mayya V. Dubovik, Irina P. Komarova, Dinh Trong An

Abstract: After each economic crisis, such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic, governments have used public investment as a crucial tool to help economies recover quickly. However, a significant concern is how to structure such investments to meet the intended objectives while avoiding risks during implementation. The crowding-in/out effect of public investment on private investment remains a hotly debated topic. To address this issue, the study utilized data from 63 provinces in Vietnam over the period from 2000 to 2023. Through the use of the Cross-Sectionally Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (CS-ARDL) model and robustness checks using the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) models, the research demonstrated that public investment has a crowding-in effect on private investment in the long term. Furthermore, the study identified two main causes of public investment crowding out private investment: first, when public investment exceeds the production capacity of the economy, and second, when public investment is inefficient. This conclusion is drawn from the analysis of the Russian economy. Additionally, the study employed the dynamic panel threshold model and found that if the ratio of public investment to GDP in Vietnam exceeds 8.532%, the crowding-out effect on private investment will occur. Moreover, the research also assessed the effectiveness of public investment in the context of climate change to identify shortcomings that need to be addressed immediately. These findings serve as important bases for proposing measures to improve the efficiency of public investment and avoid the crowding-out effect on private investment.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.158982

Authors: Marina S. Dolmatova, Tatiana S. Remizova

Abstract: Climate change mitigation increasingly relies on carbon pricing as a core policy tool. This study investigates the applicability of such mechanisms within the Russian context, given the country’s heavy fossil fuel dependence and evolving energy landscape. A mixed-method approach is used, combining case studies (EU ETS, Nordic carbon taxes, Sakhalin pilot) with scenario modeling based on macroeconomic data. The findings suggest that although carbon pricing can drive renewable adoption and emissions reduction, Russia’s centralized governance, regional inequality, and export dependence pose challenges. Key recommendations include phased implementation of carbon taxes and emissions trading, equitable revenue allocation, and integration with existing tax systems. With current limitations including reliance on secondary data and uncertainty in political feasibility, future research should explore public acceptance and institutional readiness. Overall, carbon pricing offers Russia a structured pathway to decarbonization, aligning with global climate goals if carefully adapted to local conditions.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.142169

Authors: Mirzobobo Yormirzoev, Amina Ayombekova

Abstract: This paper explores how the health-related component of human capital affects economic performance in all five Central Asian countries. In particular, it analyzes the impact of life expectancy on overall GDP and output per worker, which characterizes labor productivity. The time frame includes the period from 2000 to 2021. The methodology is based on a standard growth accounting framework. Findings show that better health conditions, as indicated by the increase in life expectancy, have a significant impact on the productivity of a worker. Nonetheless, its contribution to total output growth remains relatively small. In contrast, capital investment plays a crucial role in boosting labor productivity and fostering economic growth, especially in capital intensive countries such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.121967

Authors: Yulia V. Vymyatnina, Aleksandr A. Chernykh

Abstract: In this paper, we study whether the environmental characteristics of assets influence their returns in the case of the Russian bond market. Our main goal for this study was to research this issue for Russia using the same methodology as in studies for developed markets to allow for comparison of results. We use the twin bond methodology and consider expected returns. Our main hypothesis is that brown (i.e., non-green) assets should have a higher yield compared to green ones. Indeed, we find, predictably, that green bonds have a lower yield to maturity. This result is in line with previous results for other markets and suggests that green financing might be cheaper for companies.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.107500

Authors: Tosin Ekundayo, Amiya Bhaumik, Justine Chinoperekweyi, Zafarullah Khan

Abstract: In an era where data-driven decision-making is crucial for sustainable development, the role of open data initiatives in shaping potential and strategic outcomes has gained increasing attention. This study investigates the potential impact of National Open Data (NOD) initiatives on human capital development, with specific emphasis on their contribution towards achieving United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3 (SDG3) targets. It explores the relationship between these initiatives and the Human Development Index (HDI) across different countries and regions aiming to ascertain if there is a significant association between open data and human development. The results indicate a strong positive correlation between NOD initiatives and HDI, suggesting that open data can play a crucial role in enhancing human development and meeting SDG3 targets. However, the strength of this relationship varies significantly across regions, with a more pronounced impact observed in Latin America compared to Africa. These findings underscore the potential of open data in propelling human capital development but also highlight the need to contextualize such initiatives based on unique regional dynamics. The study serves as a resource for policymakers in leveraging open data to enhance human development outcomes and progress towards achieving SDGs.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.105745

Authors: Tijani Forgor Alhassan, Eugenia Owusu Ansah, Shakizada U. Niyazbekova, Tatiana K. Blokhina

Abstract: This study outlines the features of financing investment development in Sub-Saharan African countries. Using the financial determinants of GDP, a model was developed based on the method of least squares employing data covering 2004–2018. It was revealed that a positive correlation exists between economic growth and bank loans as well as official development assistance. The results of the model indicate that bank loans and remittances significantly increase economic growth. However, both foreign direct investment and official development assistance (ODA) were found to be ineffective in promoting development, and this is attributable to its investment model (resource-seeking) and the conditions under ODA financing, respectively, in the region. Bank loans were found to be the most influential in promoting sustainable growth in the region. Hence, it is instructive that the reforms are needed and incentives are to be developed to improve the level of the region’s financial and banking sector development and facilitate the sustainable socioeconomic development of these economies.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.108719

Authors: Yuheng Li, Haowen Jia, Wei Xiao, Alexey S. Naumov

Abstract: Improving people’s livelihood resilience against risks and challenges plays an important role in consolidating the achievements of poverty reduction. The paper uses 64 poverty-stricken counties in China’s Sichuan province as the study area and explores the link between spatial segregation and human capital. The results show that the proximity (spatial segregation) is significantly and negatively associated with people’s educational attainment and their acquisition of non-farming employment. Residents in villages which are distant from the county center tend to obtain less educational opportunities and are less likely to engage in non-farming jobs than those who are close to the county center. The mediating effect analysis indicates that remoteness mainly reduces the propensity of getting non-farming jobs by reducing the human capital of rural residents. Further analysis shows that the association between proximity, human capital and the probability of acquiring non-farming work is higher in areas with lower economic level and less developed transportation infrastructure. Policy implications for improving people’s livelihood resilience in impoverished areas are proposed in the paper.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.112008

Authors: Yulia N. Nikulina

Abstract: Contributing to a discussion on rural employment forecast in Russia, this paper sys­tematizes the challenges for the rural labor market: population outflow, weak impulses to develop non-agricultural employment and rural entrepreneurship, changing labor needs in agriculture and a decline in the number of labor migrants. The results of the regional differentiation research show that the response strategies of Russian regions to stabilize employment differ significantly and include active intra-Russian labor migration or reliance on high agricultural state support, development of self-employment and jobs preservation in labor-intensive, low-productivity sectors of agricultural production. The article discusses rural development prospects associated with the return migration of urban residents to rural areas, which creates a new basis for rural employment growth. A theoretical implication of the rural employment perspectives discussion is the proposed concept of “out-of-urban employment” that actualizes the traditional approach of seeking employment only for indigenous rural people who have lost their jobs in agriculture, and includes new types and forms of employment for urban dwellers. Analysis of the current state support for rural employment in Russia shows that it is poorly aligned with the existing challenges. The scale of both financing and the number of potential participants is small; direct support measures are limited to the agricultural sector, while indirect ones — through support for rural infrastructure — create mainly public sector employment. The practical implications of the outcomes are some proposed ways of developing measures to support rural employment, taking into account non-agricultural rural economy needs.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.109490

Authors: Marina S. Petukhova, Evgeny V. Rudoy, Nadezhda V. Orlova

Abstract: This article is the first attempt by the authors to formulate key trends in the field of rural development. The main tool is a bibliometric analysis based on the Scopus database. In 2021, the priority areas of scientific research are rural tourism, environmental problems in rural areas, the creation of engineering infrastructure, sustainable rural communities as well as climate change and its impact on rural areas. In the course of the study, the authors found that the interest in rural development is growing rapidly: tenfold from 2000 to 2021. We proposed to divide the directions of scientific research into two groups: lower and upper levels. Developed countries are focused on leading research areas, less developed — on the lowest. These include problems of rural poverty, infrastructure, rural population outflow and depopulation. The authors also conducted a desk study to identify key trends in rural development. The projection of these trends onto Russian rural areas opens up new windows of opportunity for them. These are the diversification of the rural economy through rural tourism and the development of alternative types of employment, the establishment of eco-settlements, the production of environmentally friendly farm products, and the creation of new rural settlements in areas that will become climatically favorable as a result of the projected climate change.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.116841

Authors: Alexey S. Naumov

Abstract: N.a.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.94459

Authors: Sofia M. Rebrey

Abstract: This research measures gender inequality in Russia in axial institutions: household and labor markets, education and science, state and corporate governance and relates it to agency, measured on the World Values Survey. Russian women are actively engaged in labor markets, including healthcare, science and other fields, which are widely viewed as male, as a legacy of the Soviet era. The gender income and the wage gap stem from the double burden and “maternity fee.” Demographic policy reinforces women’s role as prime caregivers, multiplies “maternity fee” and increases gender inequality, which consequently lowers the birth rate. Women are highly educated; however, education does not necessarily serve women’s career and success due to patriarchal values in the hidden curriculum. Many women are engaged in science, accounting for 43% of scientific workers, particularly in humanitarian sciences. However, the main reason is low wages. And ­science still functions within patriarchal traditions, while gender and women studies remain heterodox and have low impact on mainstream academic discussion. Governance remains a male field, while women account for deputies, and mostly languish in administrative­ jobs and are only entrusted with decision-making capabilities both in state and corporate governance.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.81283

Authors: Carlos M. Jardon, Xavier Martinez Cobas

Abstract: Emerging economies have specific characteristics that condition the use of intellectual capital. The economic crisis has had important consequences for emerging countries. The investments in intellectual capital could slow down this influence. This paper uses a new model for assessing the effects of an investment in intellectual capital on the performance of Russian companies in a period of crisis. The model is applied in Russian companies with data from 1,096 companies for the period 2004–2014 and 12,056 observations were made. The panel data included only active companies (from January 2004) listed with annual reports and were obtained from Bureau Van Dijk’s Ruslana database. Each company’s data cover at least seven years. The study used hierarchical linear models to unravel the effect of intellectual capital on value-added. The results show that investments in structural capital and relational capital have a direct effect on the stock of intellectual capital and generates value. The results show that investments in structural capital and relational capital have a direct effect on the stock of intellectual capital and generates value.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.97916

Authors: Yigitali Zokirov, Daichi Yamada, Masato Hiwatari

Abstract: This study examines the relationship between competition and innovation of Russian firms. We mainly explore (i) the role of competition in stimulating or suppressing product and process innovation and (ii) if the relationship is affected by institutional conditions, such as court fairness, corruption, and informal competition. The results show that innovation, particularly process innovation, has an inverted U-shaped relationship with competition but that product innovation is negatively associated with competition. Further, the negative relationship with product innovation is observed only among firms confronting problems in institutional conditions. The results imply that, whereas the promotion of competition can both encourage and discourage innovation, depending on the initial competition level, an improvement in institutional conditions can mitigate the negative effect of competition on innovation.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.95949

Authors: Leonid M. Grigoryev, Ekaterina A. Kheifets

Abstract: In 2020 the energy transition path was distorted by the COVID-19 pandemic which caused a sharp economic decline and a fast global recovery in 2021. Unlike that period, the years between 2001 and 2019 illustrated a different type of energy evolution for developed and developing countries regarding primary energy consumption. During this period the composition of energy balances of these two major groups demonstrated dramatic disparity, notably marked by the high share of coal in developing countries. The shock of 2020 led to a belief in expediting the transition to green energy, but in 2021 the economic recovery revived demand for oil and coal, dashing hopes for the growing renewable energy sources sector in the European Union that year. The return of coal, however, to the EU energy sector and stable demand for motor fuel globally led to the restoration of the GHG emission growth against the backdrop of the climate policy implementation failure. The current energy transition is denoted by features such as the flat oil demand in developed countries, the flat global demand for motor gasoline and the growing demand for diesel. The econometrics of demand for two motor oil products are quite opposite. For gasoline we have almost all hypotheses met: the negative influence of climate policy and oil prices, strong effect of dummies for shock of 2020 and 2021, and naturally 0.3 coefficient at GDP growth rate. Nevertheless, for diesel everything is exactly the opposite — only 0,4 coefficient at GDP and practically nothing else. This effect shows the strong role and trend for cargo use of diesel fueled trucks in the global economy. The high income of oil and gas majors in 2021 did not secure the investment upturn. A mature oil industry receives substantial profits for its investors, supplying dividends, and buying back debts without enlarging production capacities. At this point climate policy expectations of phasing out fossil fuels in the foreseeable future operated as a braking mechanism against reinvesting oil incomes. Moreover, at this junction we can observe governments’ limited capacity to pursue policies toward multiple objectives simultaneously: modest energy prices, energy transition and securing the sufficient capital formation for energy. The continued fusion of the economic upturn and energy transition will be dependent on demand and supply matching in the oil markets. It is also possible that the sanctions policies of 2022 may aggravate the situation, triggering high prices and uncertainties.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.86617

Authors: Evgeny Y. Vinokurov, Arman Ahunbaev, Alexander I. Zaboev

Abstract: The Russian economy will have to adjust its logistics to face the new reality. The operationali­zation of the multimodal International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is an important strategic part of it. This “pivot to the South” by Russia and other Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries is of particular significance in light of the required reconfiguration of supply chains in Eurasia. Russian exporters, importers and freight forwarding companies’ needs in alternative logistical opportunities have increased dramatically. The INSTC development would promote Eurasian intra- and transcontinental connectivity, reduce export costs, develop new production niches, and realize the Caspian region’s transit potential. This study estimates that the aggregate potential INSTC freight traffic via all the routes and modes of transport, including containerized and non-containerized cargoes, will reach 15–25 million­ tonnes by 2030. The container traffic could rise 20x and this will require investments in hard infrastructure and also soft infrastructure improvement. The corridor will contribute to the evolving outline of the trans-Eurasian transport backbone and bring significant benefits for the economies of Russia, Central Asia, the Caucasus, Middle East, and South Asia.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.80597

Authors: Margaret M. Zeigler, Ann Steensland

Abstract: Agriculture and food systems must provide nutrition and agricultural products for nearly 10 billion people by 2050. Agriculture is a powerful economic driver, and by prioritizing agricultural productivity and innovation, food systems can become more resilient and improve the wider economy while generating employment. Yet, powerful solutions and approaches are needed that must move beyond “low-hanging fruit” when investing in low-income country agriculture systems. As part of the solution, we discuss innovations such as participatory research models from the International Potato Center (CIP) as well as how to unlock and harness existing plant genetics through the phytobiome.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.7.75423

Authors: Ivan L. Lyubimov

Abstract: Economic complexity theory deepens our understanding of export diversification. However, it relies on aggregated data which might disguise important details. In particular, these data do not take information on importers into account even though this information can provide new insights about the pace of economic complexity evolution in a particular economy. The paper introduces these new insights by incorporating more detailed export data into analysis. I find that wealthier economies not only tend to export more sophisticated products, but also sell them to richer destinations. I discuss the case of Russia which seeks to become a more complex economy and gain technological ­sovereignty by implementing reindustrialization policy. However, Russian complex products rarely conquer richer markets and are better known to Russia’s geographic neighbors. Our findings suggest that such a pattern of reindustrialization might not be promising as long as a higher level of wealth is a concern. The paper claims that even though redesigning industrial policy such that it becomes more conditioned on export outcomes is not a solution to the problem, it is, however, one of its important ingredients.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.7.76647

Authors: Michael Alexeev, Mira Nurmakhanova, Leonid I. Polishchuk

Abstract: Formal institutions and social capital interact with each other in multiple ways. We argue and show empirically at the cross-country level that in the case of group lending, contract enforcement complements bonding social capital and substitutes for bridging one. It means that payoff to social capital in group lending depends on social capital type and is contingent on the quality of contract enforcement which serves as a sorting factor, working in the opposite directions for different stripes of social capital. These results are robust to various estimations, sets of controls, and social capital measures.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.7.77285

Authors: Han-Sol Lee, Yury N. Moseykin, Sergey U. Chernikov

Abstract: This paper empirically analyzes sustainable relations between inward FDI (IFDI), outward FDI (OFDI), the R&D expenditure ratio and CO2 emissions based on balanced panel data from the BRICS (namely, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries for the period 2003–2017. Generally, the results confirm a negative effect of IFDI and a positive effect of OFDI on the R&D expenditure ratio, both with statistical significance. Further exploration of the IFDI, OFDI and R&D impacts on CO2 emissions was based on an assumption that innovation development mitigates environmental pollution. The research outcome revealed positive associations between IFDI and the R&D expenditure ratio with CO2 emissions, showing the connection of environmental pollution to growth-focused national economic strategies. Based on these results, we recommend the following policies: (1) rethinking domestic industries protectionism trends and research support to enhance FDI spillover effects, (2) the drafting of New Development Bank specific environment-friendly investment programs aimed at innovation activities, and (3) looking into further easing the green technologies from developed countries.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.7.78432

Authors: Leonid M. Grigoryev, Marina F. Starodubtseva

Abstract: Brazilian economic reforms in 21st century have great importance for the international community, especially for other countries of the middle level of development. The authors­ believe that, in spite of all the difficulties and crises, Brazil has made a decisive step forward by reforming its social structure and retaining democracy. Social reforms (especially­ minimal wage) led to strengthening middle class, but also to elevating its social aspirations. At this dramatic junction the economic development of the country was aggravated by external shocks and unsuccessful budget policies. The complex interaction of social macro­economic policies in Brazil with strong external shocks gives lessons to countries with similar characteristics. The pandemic and recession of 2020–2021 have made the path of development more complicated but there is room for optimism for Brazil in the long run.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.7.57933

Authors: Irina Tarasenko

Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports and imports of a range of goods between Russia and its 70 trading partners from 2004 until 2018. The goods in question fall into eight product categories, as follows: (i) agricultural raw materials­; (ii) chemicals; (iii) food; (iv) fuels; (v) manufactured goods; (vi) ores and metals­; (vii) textiles; and (viii) machinery and transport equipment. Exchange rate volatility­ is measured using the standard deviation of the first difference in the logarithmic daily nominal exchange rate. The paper concludes that exchange rate volatility had a negative impact on exports of agricultural raw materials, manufactured goods, and machinery and transport equipment. In contrast, it was found to have a positive and significant impact on trade in fuels and imports of chemicals and textiles.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.7.57894

Authors: Necati Berk

Abstract: Why do similar economic and political institutions function differently in various cultures? Do cultural traits, differences in individualism versus collectivism, have a causal impact on economic behavior and development? This article presents a recent survey of the literature on the relationship between culture, institutions, and economic growth. On the one hand, part of the literature indicates that there is a one-way causality from culture to institutions and economic performance. On the other hand, there is an extensive literature that has established causality from institutions to economic growth and culture. However, a growing body of empirical research demonstrates that culture and institutions interact in two ways and complement each other affecting long-term growth. Research documents cultural variables affecting a great deal of economic activity and institutions across the world. Recent dominant discourse on the role of the individualism-collectivism cleavage in the determination of the wealth of nations has attempted to examine the positive effects of individualism rather than collectivism. This paper shows that the advantages of collectivism have been rarely researched within economic literature. Taking into account collectivism can shed light on various puzzles in economics, such as solving collective action problems.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.7.56600

Authors: Carol S. Leonard, Zafar Nazarov, Leonid I. Borodkin, Maria A. Karpenko, Roman B. Konchakov

Abstract: This paper shows that railroad building in Russia, as in Europe and the US in the nineteenth century, improved the value of land, a classic benefit of transportation investment in largely agrarian countries. From a database constructed for this paper, we use cross-sectional data for the fifty European Russian regions to show the association of the length of the railroad (measured in 1894), land prices (measured in 1900) and annual growth of land prices (in rubles) for 1885–1910.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.6.58683

Authors: Leonid M. Grigoryev, Dzhanneta D. Medzhidova

Abstract: The international community has become increasingly concerned with sustainable development and particularly with preventing climate change. The COVID-19 pandemic and global recession of 2020 will exacerbate the situation not just for 2020–2021, but for many years to come. Sadly, it is a game-changer. The necessity to solve problems of poverty (energy poverty) and inequality, as well as growth and climate change mitigation, now haunts intellectuals, forecasters, and politicians. These three problems constitute the global energy trilemma (GET). There is a wide range of forecasts, scenarios, and political plans emerging after the Paris Agreement in 2015. They demonstrate concerns about the slow progress on the matter; however, they still increase the goals for 2030–2050. The global capital formation is a key tool for changes while also representing the hard-budget investment constraints. This article examines practical features of recent trends in energy, poverty, and climate change mitigation, arguing that allocation and coordinated management of sufficient financial resources are vital for a simultaneous solution of GET. No group of countries can hope to solve each of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) separately. The global economy has reached the point where it has an urgent need for cooperation.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.6.55867

Authors: Vladimir A. Mau

Abstract: This article presents an analysis of the key challenges facing the global economy, as well as the impact of these challenges on Russia. It addresses main collisions that have emerged in recent years, including the proliferation of etatism and populism, increasing social and political polarization, the growing importance of national issues vs the global agenda, as well as the social, economic and political consequences of using digital technologies against the backdrop of the global economy spiraling into an unprecedented crisis. The pandemic and its global economic impact are analyzed within the context of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. This is the foundation which we set for discussing Russia’s economic agenda.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.5.47348

Authors: Leonid M. Grigoryev, Lyubov Popovets

Abstract: Sociology and psychology closely study the phenomena of homicide and suicide among countries of the world, but both remain little studied in the context of the levels of countries’ development and international comparisons. Developed countries (in terms of GDP per capita) show a decrease in the relative rate of homicides, but the case of suicides is not so explicit. This paper examines the relative levels of suicides and homicides all around the world in the context of socio-economic indices as well as indicators of mental health among the population. Addressing the example of the BRICS countries, the authors discuss the impact of economic imbalances on homicide and suicide levels. The analysis demonstrates that social inequality determines cross-country differences for relative levels in terms of homicide rates, including the course of events in the post-Soviet countries. And in the case of Russia, it is possible to make a conclusion not only about the presence of deep inter-regional differences, but also about a large-scale reduction in the frequency of two tragic phenomena between 2000 and 2017 during the economic recovery.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.5.38073

Authors: Nurilla Abdushukurov

Abstract: In this paper, the discussion centers on the possible effects of currency crises on different economic indicators, with special attention to economic growth and foreign direct investment. There is insufficient research on this topic to draw any firm conclusions about the associations between currency crises and aforementioned variables. In fact, it appears that the impact of currency crises on economic growth and foreign direct investment is negative respectively. However, this study indicates that foreign direct investment can be positively correlated with currency crises as contrary to the common belief. The current study analyzes these relationships through dynamic panel models. The annual panel data for 71 emerging and developing countries are extracted from reliable databases for the time period of 2005–2014. Generalized method of moments estimators are used to obtain efficient and consistent results so as to reach necessary conclusions. The majority of estimated coefficients are significant and unbiased statistically, and also consistent with the economic theories proposed. The main results indicate that the presence of a currency crisis in a particular economy has a negative impact on economic growth, while its effect on foreign investment inflows is most likely positive. Robustness tests demonstrate that used models in the study are both economically and econometrically robust and valid.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.5.34753

Authors: Ivan Lyubimov

Abstract: The Russian economy heavily relies on exports of its natural resources. However, the resource-based status quo does not seem to be the route towards Russia’s long-run prosperity. To improve its position in the global income ranking, Russia needs to diversify its exports and make them more complex. Using highly detailed data on trade flows and applying network theory apparatus, we evaluate the level of export complexity in Russia from 1995 to 2016 and compare it with that of its BRICS fellow members. We find that Russia is stagnant with respects to its relative level of export complexity. This sluggishness embraced the entire period between 1995 and 2016, much longer than the stage of anemic growth that started there a decade ago. We also conclude that the current stock of know-how in Russia is relatively low and fragmented, thus not letting Russia diversify into a broad range of more complex products. Russia might also need to export a wider variety of products to richer economies. Today, on a par with Brazil and South Africa, it supplies a broader range of goods to its slowly growing next-door neighbors.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.5.38704

Authors: Michael Baltensperger, Uri Dadush

Abstract: China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an international trade and development strategy. Launched in 2013, it is one of the ways that China asserts its role in world affairs and captures the opportunities of globalization. The BRI has the potential to enhance development prospects across the world and in China, but that potential might not be realized because the BRI’s objectives are too broad and ill-defined, and its execution is too often non-transparent, lacking in due diligence and uncoordinated. This article documents the background and context of the BRI, recounts what is known about the extent of the initiative and specifies its various motivations. It highlights that the initiative meets very large infrastructure investments gaps, which is welcome and needed, and that China’s goal of forging stronger links with its trading partners around the world are legitimate, so long, of course, as the underlying intent remains peaceful. Though many observers welcome the BRI, many others oppose it for good reasons, while others misunderstand it and oppose it for bad reasons. The paper identifies and discusses concerns about the initiative that relate to its geopolitical objectives, its priorities, its geographic scope, the role of state-owned enterprises, the allocation of resources, issues of transparency and of due diligence. Particularly, it shows that this initiative deals with a vast number of countries that are in very different states of development and that an apparent lack of well-defined priorities is holding the initiative back. The paper also highlights the issue of debt overload which is distressing several BRI countries and discourages further projects. It points briefly to possible improvements that China and the other stakeholders in the BRI can make to get the most out of their investments. The BRI, to be effective, needs to meet the basic conditions of a trade and development strategy, which are clear objectives, adequate resources, selectivity, a workable implementation plan, due diligence and clear communication. Involvement of multilateral lenders could help with this. Finally, China has to improve the evaluation of project’s risks and costs and step up its due diligence approach to demonstrate that it respects the long-term interests of those countries that are at the receiving end of its BRI projects.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.5.38706

Authors: Anna Fedyunina, Yuliya Averyanova

Abstract: The paper explores the relationship between the import of semi-finished products and means of production and the export of high-tech products in Russian manufacturing companies. The key question of the research is whether the export of high-tech products is connected with the import of complex components and semi-finished products. The study confirms that the export of high-tech products is determined by the import of high-tech semi-finished products for the export-intensive Russian manufacturing companies. The research does not find any relationship between the import of equipment and means of production and the export of high-tech products. This has important implications for Russia’s structural policy aimed at expanding exports of high-tech products. First, introducing protectionist measures in relation to the import of foreign components should take place gradually to allow companies to adapt to the new conditions. Secondly, they should proceed selectively in order to allow access of Russian exporters to critical components and means of production that have no Russian counterparts.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.5.35234

Authors: Vladimir A. Mau

Abstract: This paper deals with global trends and their influence on Russian economic and social performance. A new economic crisis is looming, and the lack of institutional reforms, which were put on the agenda by the crisis of 2008–2009, is a source of current concern. In 2018 Russian authorities announced a set of national goals and projects as the central point of social and economic policy for 2018–2024. The new economic growth policy includes the shift from the demand-side growth model to the supply-side one, broad implementation of project methods in economic policy, and continuation of conservative fiscal and monetary policy.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.5.35507

Authors: Rostislav Kapeliushnikov

Abstract: Nowadays there are many gloomy prophecies provided by both technologists and economists about the detrimental effects of the so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution on aggregate employment and its composition. These prophecies imply that in the near future we will face Robocalypse — a massive replacement of people by machines alongside an explosion in joblessness. This paper provides theoretical, empirical and historical evidence that the phenomenon of technological unemployment is a phantom. The most general results can be summarized as follows: in the long run, reduction in labor demand under the impact of new technologies is merely a theoretical possibility that has never before been realized in practice; at the level of individual firms, there is a strong positive relationship between innovations and employment growth; at the sectoral level, technological changes cause a multidirectional employment response, since different industries are at different stages of the life cycle; at the macro level, technological progress acts as a positive or neutral, but not a negative factor; a surge in technological unemployment, even in the short-term, seems a remote prospect since in coming decades the pace of technological change is unlikely to be fast enough by historical standards; the impact of new technologies on labor supply may be a more serious problem than their impact on labor demand; technological changes seem to have a much greater effect on the composition of employment than on its level.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.5.35233

Authors: Valeriy V. Mironov, Liudmila D. Konovalova

Abstract: The article considers the problem of the relationship of structural changes and economic growth in the global economy and Russia in the framework of different methodological approaches. At the same time, the paper provides the analysis of complementarity of economic policy types, which, on the one hand, are aimed at developing the fundamentals of GDP growth (institutions, human capital and macroeconomic stabilization), and on the other hand, at initiating growth (with stable fundamentals) with the help of structural policy measures. In the study of structural changes in the global economy, new forms of policies of this kind have been revealed, in particular aimed at identifying sectors — drivers of economic growth based on a portfolio approach. In a given paper a preliminary version of the model of the Russian economy is provided, using a multisector version of the Thirlwall’s Law. Besides, the authors highlight a number of target parameters of indicators of competitiveness of the sectors of the Russian economy that allow us to expect its growth rate to accelerate above the exogenously given growth rate of the world economy.

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DOI: 10.3897/j.ruje.4.33621

Authors: Victor Polterovich

Abstract: A new approach to understanding social and economic development is proposed, based on consideration of the evolution of coordination mechanisms. The work consists of two parts. In the first part, a critical analysis of four recently proposed theories of social development, focusing on geographical, institutional or cultural factors, is given. These theories have greatly enriched our understanding of the evolution of society, however, as analysis shows, none of them provides a satisfactory description of the driving forces and mechanisms of this evolution; the main reason is rooted in their common deficiency — monocausality. It is proposed to distinguish between two types of development, catching up and leading. The basic ideas of the theory of catching up development are presented. This approach makes it possible to explain the phenomenon of the “economic miracle” as a result of mutually conditioned changes in culture, institutions, technological progress and well-being in the context of interaction of competition, power and collaboration mechanisms. The second part is devoted to the theory of leading socioeconomic development. It is shown how in Western Europe, as a result of the interaction of the above four factors, specific forms and combinations of the three main mechanisms of coordination — competition, power and collaboration — emerged at each stage of evolution. I emphasize the importance of ideology and the phenomenon of technical progress in the formation of institutions of economic and political competition that contributed to the creation of the welfare state. These changes and economic growth created the conditions for further transformation of civil culture: increasing levels of trust, tolerance, altruism and cosmopolitanism, expanding the planning horizon. The decrease in the level of coercion built into the mechanisms of power and competition are demonstrated as well as the expansion of the role of collaboration. A hypothesis is advanced that the speed of this process depends on geographical factors. The idea of the welfare world is discussed.

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DOI: 10.3897/j.ruje.4.33617

Authors: Sergey Drobyshevsky, Georgy Idrisov, Andrey Kaukin, Pavel Pavlov, Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev

Abstract: In this paper, we present a methodology of GDP growth rate decomposition adapted for the Russian economy. We calculated the indicators for structural unemployment (NAWRU) and total factor productivity in Russia. We estimated the structural, foreign trade and cyclical components of GDP growth rates under various macroeconomic scenarios for the period from 2018 through 2024. The study shows that a significant contribution to growth rates for the period 2018 through 2024 will be made by the sum of the business cycle and random shock component, which, combined with the revitalization of investments in 2017, may indicate the beginning of a new cycle of economic growth in Russia. In the scenarios reviewed, the contribution from the foreign trade component will be negative from 2018 to 2024. The calculations indicate further stagnation of structural growth rates in the Russian economy from 2018 to 2024 at the level of approximately 1.5 p.p. in all of the basic macroeconomic scenarios reviewed. This points to the inexpediency in postponing structural reforms to create conditions for Russia’s economy to achieve growth rates that exceed world averages.

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DOI: 10.3897/j.ruje.4.27726

Authors: Christopher A. Hartwell

Abstract: The idea of a middle-income trap is now over a decade old and continues to be applied to growth paths which have not been self-sustaining. With the bulk of emerging markets now approaching middle-income status, and given the reality of slower growth for many countries (and the policy recommendations that currently exist for overcoming this problem), is the middle-income trap still a relevant framework? Using reference to the BRICS countries, the key finding of this analysis is that the middle-income trap conceptualization is of little value-added, as fundamentals still matter, especially in relation to macroeconomic stability. Similarly, we note that “quality” institutions are necessary, both political and economic, including (smaller) size of government and property rights. The “trap” as currently formulated is thus nothing new or particularly relevant, as it repackages some familiar structural issues while avoiding other crucial ones.

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DOI: 10.3897/j.ruje.4.27743

Authors: Vladimir Mau

Abstract: The paper discusses the main challenges of Russian economy at the turning period from contraction to growth. The analysis is based on comparison of global economic trends and special features of Russian performance. Among global problems, it concentrates on prospects of “non-inflation growth”, perspectives of global currencies and the role of cryptocurrencies, central banks independence and their role in economic growth stimulation, new tasks and patterns of government regulation, inequality and growth. In the Russian case, the key topics are prospects of macroeconomic stimulation of growth, inflation targeting, new fiscal rule, social dynamics and new challenges to welfare state. The paper concludes that the main obstacles for economic growth in Russia are concentrated in the non-economic area.

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DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2017.12.003

Authors: Ilya B. Voskoboynikov

Abstract: Although productivity decline in the global economy was observed before 2008, the global financial crisis of 2008 stimulated study of its source. In this context, recent literature mentions inefficient investments in machinery, human capital, and organizational processes. This can include skill mismatch and the lack of technology diffusion from advanced to emerging industries and firms. To what extent is this global view helpful in understanding recent productivity decline in the Russian economy? The present study reports that at least some of these sources can be observed in Russia as well. Using conventional industry growth accounting, it compares pre- and post-crisis sources of growth for the Russian economy. Specifically, it presents aggregate labor productivity growth as the sum of capital intensity and total factor productivity (TFP) growth in industries, and the contribution of labor reallocation between industries. It shows that the stagnation of 2008–2014 is more the result of the TFP decline and the deterioration of the allocation of labor than the lack of capital input. Moreover, the TFP decline started in Russia a few years before the crisis, as it did in major global economies, such as the United States, OECD countries, China, and Brazil. At the same time, relatively stable capital intensity made the Russian pattern to some degree similar to resource abundant Australia and Canada. Furthermore, the contribution of information and communications technology capital to labor productivity growth in Russia declined after 2008, which could have also hampered technology diffusion. Finally, the structure of the flow of capital services in Russia changed after 2008. Before the crisis, the contribution of machinery and equipment dominated, while after the crisis, construction provided the lion's share of capital input.

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DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2017.06.001

Authors: Vladimir Mau

Abstract: Economic growth is a primary challenge of the political agenda of leading countries, including Russia. This study discusses existing hypotheses that are related to “secular stagnation” and the “productivity paradox”, which include the demand side of the problem (cyclical factors), special features of technological innovations (technological factors), anti-crisis policy that prevents “creative destruction” (political factors), and the irrelevance of the GDP measurement (statistical problems). Limits to growth contribute to a new global policy trend and the emerging of populism; this study discusses the prospects of the transformation from political populism to economic populism. Global challenges provide the basis for a more extensive analysis of Russian economic development and, particularly, the results of the 2015–2016 anti-crisis policy, which helped the Russian economy to adapt to new economic realities of the post-crisis world.

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DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2017.02.003

Authors: Ivan Lyubimov

Abstract: This paper compares two popular views on the evolution of income inequality. The article by Simon Kuznets, which was published in American Economic Review in 1955, considers inequality as a byproduct of economic growth and suggests that a relatively rich economy should also be less unequal. In contrast, Thomas Piketty indicates that inequality is progressing, and an internationally coordinated policy is required to bring inequality under control. My paper applies the arguments of Kuznets and Piketty to the problem of income inequality in modern Russia.

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DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2016.11.002

Authors: Evsey Gurvich

Abstract: This article is an attempt to find a grounded answer to the question of why many large-scale economic development programs worked out in Russia from 2000 through 2010 have failed to yield the expected results. To this end, the author has diagnosed the Russian economy, including a comparative analysis against 20 countries at similar levels of development and analyzed both the Russian and global experience in developing and implementing economic programs. The author concludes that the development of the Russian economy is currently hindered by a rigid institutional framework and that growth cannot accelerate without removing it as part of the political process. Based on the analysis of various types of institutional reforms, specific measures are proposed that can ensure the country's evolutional development and can mitigate the economic and social risks threatening Russia if the status quo is maintained.

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DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2016.11.001

Authors: Dmitry Medvedev

Abstract: This paper addresses Russian economic development and economic policy in 2015–2016. The analysis focuses on external and domestic challenges as well as the anti-crisis policy of the Russian government. Special attention is paid to key elements of the new model of economic growth in Russia. The paper discusses economic policy priorities for sustainable growth that include budget efficiency, structural reforms and import substitution, the encouragement of entrepreneurship, the efficiency of public administration, and the modernization of the welfare state.

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DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2016.09.002

Authors: Georgy Idrisov, Yury Ponomarev, Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev

Abstract: The paper discusses economic development trends in Russia in late 2014 and 2015 and reviews the basic mechanisms of how changes in the terms of trade affect the economic development of countries from a historical perspective and with a particular focus on those changes in the Russian economy that occurred in late 2014 and 2015. The authors demonstrate that structural reforms aimed at diversification of production and exports are necessary for sustainable economic development, for social stability and for reducing the impact of variability in the terms of trade on the Russian economy. During periods of instability in the government agenda's measures for the real and financial sectors, it is necessary not only to compensate economic agents losses caused by changes in the terms of trade but also to improve the economic structure and to develop and enhance the stability of the financial markets.

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DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2016.04.005

Authors: Andrey Shastitko, Svetlana Golovanova

Abstract: This paper relates competition studies and views on competition policy within Austrian economics to the dynamic capabilities theory. The idea of interacting research programs in economics is used to provide the frame for reflecting on particular issues of competition, on the one hand, and (1) ignorance, (2) knowledge (including tacit knowledge), (3) rationality, (4) equilibrium, (5) innovation, (6) entrepreneurship, and (7) monopoly, on the other hand. Unlike the majority of previous studies, these issues are discussed here mainly through the lens of new institutional economics. Williamson's three-level scheme is used to explain opportunities and constraints for mutually enriching exchange of concepts between different but close approaches in economic research. This paper shows that there are important interconnections and complementarities despite significant differences in objects of study and weak mutual flows of ideas and concepts.

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DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2016.04.001

Authors: Vladimir Mau

Abstract: This paper addresses the trends and challenges of 2015 for social and economic policy in the near future. The analysis of the global crisis includes uneven developments between the leading advanced and emerging economies, new models of economic growth that look differently across different countries, the prospects of globalization and the challenges of “regional globalization,” currency configurations of the future, and energy price trends and their influence on the political and economic prospects of particular states. The current challenges are discussed in the context of the previous 30 years. Among the main topics on Russia, there are approaches to a new growth model, structural transformation (including import-substitution issues), economic trends, budget and monetary outlines, and social issues. Priorities for economic policy are also a topic of discussion.

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DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2016.02.004

Authors: Andrey Yushkov

Abstract: The article addresses the theoretical and empirical relation between fiscal decentralization and economic growth. An empirical analysis of Russian regions for 2005–2012 shows that excessive expenditure decentralization within the region, which is not accompanied by the respective level of revenue decentralization, is significantly and negatively related to regional economic growth. In contrast, regional dependence on intergovernmental fiscal transfers from the federal center is positively associated with economic growth.

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DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.006

Authors: Vitaly Tambovtsev

Abstract: This paper is devoted to the critical analysis of today's mainstream approach to the inclusion of the factor of culture in economic research. National culture is treated in this framework as a reified entity measured by societal values and is persistently included as a “culture code” throughout different contexts. The paper presents evidence contradicting this treatment, and an alternative methodology for economic analysis of cultural phenomena is suggested, namely that each mass cultural practice should be analyzed on a “case-by-case” basis, comparing stakeholders’ costs and benefits.

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DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.004

Authors: Georgy Idrisov, Maria Kazakova, Andrey Polbin

Abstract: This article analyzes the impact of global oil prices on Russia's economic growth and its growth rate in terms of output. It also reviews the mechanics of the long-term and short-term impacts on output resulting from changes in oil prices. The authors argue that the effect of oil prices on output has decreased dramatically under current economic conditions ever since the period of recovery growth in the early 2000s. The main conclusion of the paper is that, on the basis of classical models, a constant increase in oil prices cannot influence the long-term economic growth rate and only predetermines short-term transitional trends from one long-term equilibrium to another.

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DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2015.11.004

Authors: Dmitry Medvedev

Abstract: The article considers social and economic challenges that Russia faces in the context of present-day global transformation. Key technological, economic, and social trends, which determine the contours of the post-crisis world, are analyzed. A long-term agenda for the country's development aimed at securing a new quality of economic growth is proposed.

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DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2015.05.002

Authors: Alexey Kudrin, Evsey Gurvich

Abstract: The problems underlying the current slowdown of the Russian economy are of a persistent nature and cannot be resolved with simple measures such as a softer monetary or fiscal policy. The fundamental reason for these problems is the weak market environment dominated by public and quasi-public companies. A new growth model should be based upon strong incentive for the business, as well as the government regulation system, to improve efficiency. This article defines the main steps to be taken in building such a model.

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DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2015.05.003

Authors: Vladimir Mau, Alexey Ulyukaev

Abstract: Global crisis forms new economic policy agenda which raises new questions for economic theory and economic thinking. This paper deals with these new intellectual challenges. Among them: growth theory and the risks of secular stagnation, unconventional macroeconomic policy and the prospects of financial stability, inequality and growth, the new welfare state, the prospects of globalization vs. de-globalization, and the re-industrialization in advanced economies. Based on the analysis of global trends, the paper discusses the roots and features of current Russian economic problems, compares the 2008–2009 and 2014–2015 crises, and factorizes the last one on three main components. The analysis includes the effects of sanctions against Russia on the current economic situation and the structural problems that slow down economic growth. Special attention is paid to examples of medium-term and long-term steps that can provide sustainable development for the Russian economy.

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