Latest Articles from Russian Journal of Economics Latest 1 Articles from Russian Journal of Economics https://rujec.org/ Fri, 29 Mar 2024 14:51:11 +0200 Pensoft FeedCreator https://rujec.org/i/logo.jpg Latest Articles from Russian Journal of Economics https://rujec.org/ The fiscal gap: An estimate for Russia https://rujec.org/article/27950/ Russian Journal of Economics 1(3): 240-256

DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.002

Authors: Evgeny Goryunov, Lawrence Kotlikoff, Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev

Abstract: The fiscal gap is an indicator of the long-term balance of public finance and is calculated based on the intertemporal government budget constraint, which links government tax revenues and expenditures over long intervals. The estimate of the fiscal gap for the Russian general government has been determined according to three scenarios with varying assumptions regarding demographic trends, productivity growth rates, oil and gas prices and the quantity of extractable reserves. The calculations show that the current fiscal policy cannot provide for the stability of public finance in the long run. The main factors of budget imbalances are the growth of pension and health care expenditures caused by demographic trends and the gradual decline in tax receipts from the oil and gas sector.

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Research Article Mon, 31 Aug 2015 00:00:00 +0300