Latest Articles from Russian Journal of Economics Latest 4 Articles from Russian Journal of Economics https://rujec.org/ Fri, 29 Mar 2024 00:40:59 +0200 Pensoft FeedCreator https://rujec.org/i/logo.jpg Latest Articles from Russian Journal of Economics https://rujec.org/ Thirty years of economic transition in the former Soviet Union: Macroeconomic dimension https://rujec.org/article/90947/ Russian Journal of Economics 8(2): 95-121

DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.90947

Authors: Marek Dabrowski

Abstract: The paper contains a retrospective analysis of macroeconomic policy and reforms in the countries of the former Soviet Union (FSU) from 1992 to 2021, after obtaining political and economic independence in 1991. Special attention is given to problems of macroeconomic stabilization and economic growth. As a result of structural distortions inherited from the Soviet economy and the slow pace of economic and institutional reforms, the FSU countries suffered from a long and deep output decline in the 1990s. Their post-transition growth recovery in the 2000s did not last long. Furthermore, they remain vulnerable to both domestic and external economic shocks. Given the limited predictability of post-COVID global economic trends and the damaging consequences of the war in Ukraine, this vulnerability will likely continue in the next couple of years.

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Research Article Fri, 29 Jul 2022 10:56:43 +0300
Factors determining Russia’s long-term growth rate https://rujec.org/article/49417/ Russian Journal of Economics 5(4): 328-353

DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.5.49417

Authors: Marek Dabrowski

Abstract: In the decade of the 2010s, the pace of economic growth in Russia slowed down to an annual rate of below 2% and most forecasts suggest that this is will be the new “normal” for the Russian economy at least in the medium-term. While politically and socially disappointing, such a growth slowdown is unavoidable due to adverse demographic trends. A combination of a shrinking working-age population and population aging must lead to a lower growth pace as compared to the period when the working-age population was still increasing and the effects of population aging were limited (the decade of the 2000s). Compensatory measures such as a gradual increase in the retirement age and an open labor migration policy, although economically positive, can only partly mitigate the negative effects of a shrinking domestic labor force. In this respect, Russia does not differ from other European countries and some Asian countries. However, demography and shrinking labor supply cannot fully explain low potential growth. Stagnation in total factor productivity is another reason. It results from a poor business and investment climate, difficulty in diversifying away from the dominant role of the hydrocarbon sector, and deteriorating political and economic relations with the US and EU which limit trade, investment and innovation opportunities. To increase its potential growth, Russia needs comprehensive economic and institutional reforms that, in turn, will be conditioned by political reforms and by improved economic and political relationships with the US, the EU and Russia’s neighbors.

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Research Article Fri, 20 Dec 2019 11:00:02 +0200
Fiscal maneuver and restructuring of the Russian economy https://rujec.org/article/27990/ Russian Journal of Economics 3(3): 221-239

DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2017.09.001

Authors: Alexey Kudrin, Ilya Sokolov

Abstract: The paper discusses fiscal policy parameters through 2024. The suggested way to ensure long-term fiscal stability is stabilizing both the general government revenues and expenditures as percentages of GDP at levels differing by the public debt service payments and then applying a new version of the fiscal rule. The redistribution of fiscal spending from unproductive to productive areas (primarily investment in human and physical capital) is considered to boost economic growth. The possible use of additional spending on education, public health, and transport systems is presented, as is the optimization of expenditures in nonproductive areas.

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Research Article Thu, 31 Aug 2017 00:00:00 +0300
The fiscal gap: An estimate for Russia https://rujec.org/article/27950/ Russian Journal of Economics 1(3): 240-256

DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.002

Authors: Evgeny Goryunov, Lawrence Kotlikoff, Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev

Abstract: The fiscal gap is an indicator of the long-term balance of public finance and is calculated based on the intertemporal government budget constraint, which links government tax revenues and expenditures over long intervals. The estimate of the fiscal gap for the Russian general government has been determined according to three scenarios with varying assumptions regarding demographic trends, productivity growth rates, oil and gas prices and the quantity of extractable reserves. The calculations show that the current fiscal policy cannot provide for the stability of public finance in the long run. The main factors of budget imbalances are the growth of pension and health care expenditures caused by demographic trends and the gradual decline in tax receipts from the oil and gas sector.

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Research Article Mon, 31 Aug 2015 00:00:00 +0300