DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.115594

Authors: Alexander E. Abramov, Maria I. Chernova

Abstract: Many countries seek to improve their pension systems by introducing corporate and individual savings plans to address the challenges of demography, social security, and economy. However, the establishing of a long-term, reliable savings system encounters multiple impediments. The retrospective analysis of Russian pension reforms offers some recommendations on solving the typical problems faced by reformers. Thus, in 2002 the Russian pension system was implemented by a mandatory savings pillar, which 20 years later the Ministry of Finance substituted by voluntary savings. As this period appeared shorter than the average life span, this measure proved ineffective in increasing pension payouts for future retirees. The frequent regulatory changes and the shrinking workforce coverage as the state prioritized the welfare of the current pension recipients also infringed upon the interests of future retirees. Pension savings investments were further affected by the economic policy aimed at the minimal return requirements which resulted in a more conservative asset allocation strategy and inefficient active management in non-state pension funds. The study demonstrates that policy actions to overcome these impediments and to raise the replacement rates for future retirees should include (a) steady regulations within a pension savings system of no shorter than 40 years; (b) the savings pillar covering no less than 80% of the workforce; and (c) the asset allocation strategy involving a bigger share of equity, longer time horizon and clear benchmarks. These recommendations can be applied to emerging market economies concerned with improving and reforming their pension systems.

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DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.001

Authors: Alexander Abramov, Alexander Radygin, Maria Chernova

Abstract: This article analyzes the impact of the increase of an investment horizon on the comparative advantages of the basic asset classes and on the principles of constructing the investment strategy. It demonstrates that the traditional approach of portfolio management theory, which states that investments in stocks are preferable over bonds in terms of their long-run risk–return trade-offs, is by no means always consistent with empirical evidence. This article proves the opposite, i.e., that for long-term investors, investments in corporate bonds are more profitable in terms of the risk–return ratio than investments in stocks, arguing in favor of strategies pursued by pension funds and other institutional investors focused primarily on investments in fixed-income instruments, including infrastructural bonds. Emphasis is placed on the need for regular adjustments to long-term investors’ portfolios. As portfolios get older, those investors see a reduction in the returns’ dispersion, while differences in risk between various portfolios increase. This means that to maintain a fixed risk–return ratio for a portfolio as the horizon increases, an investor needs to increase the share of lower-risk financial assets during asset allocation process. This thesis becomes especially relevant in the context of retirement savings management.

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