DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.128666

Authors: Shweta Sikhwal

Abstract: This paper quantifies the spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the United States on emerging market economies (EMEs). Using a generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation of a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model on a dataset of 39 EMEs from 2005 to 2019, we find that increased U.S. EPU significantly raises the consumer price index (CPI) and negatively impacts the real GDP of these economies. Additionally, heightened U.S. EPU leads to a depreciation of emerging market currencies and a reduction in short-term interest rates. We employ a news-based EPU index developed by Baker et al. (2016) and conduct robustness checks using forward orthogonal transformation, an alternative EPU index, and by addressing the potential endogeneity of the oil price uncertainty (OPU) index. Our findings highlight the adverse effects of U.S. economic policy uncertainty on key macroeconomic variables in emerging markets, underscoring the importance of stable economic policies and robust institutions to mitigate these impacts.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.101612

Authors: Duc Huu Nguyen, Irina P. Khominich

Abstract: The study presents a Green Economy Index that evaluates the quality of green economies in the BRICS countries based on three pillars: environment, economic performance, and quality of green living. Research findings suggest that the BRICS nations are gradually shifting their focus from mere economic growth to encompassing environmental, social welfare, and equality concerns. Russia showcased the best balance among these three pillars from 2011 to 2020, while India and China made notable strides. Nevertheless, Brazil and South Africa face obstacles in improving their economies and increasing social welfare. The indicators highlight specific challenges each country must address, including high unemployment in Brazil and South Africa, low energy intensity in Russia and China, and air pollution and low Human Development Index in India, alongside shared issues like low government transparency. Based on the research significant findings, the study attempts to address whether the BRICS nations should prioritize financing environmental protection, economic growth, or social goals to maintain a balance among all the three pillars and achieve their green economy objectives.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.5.38073

Authors: Nurilla Abdushukurov

Abstract: In this paper, the discussion centers on the possible effects of currency crises on different economic indicators, with special attention to economic growth and foreign direct investment. There is insufficient research on this topic to draw any firm conclusions about the associations between currency crises and aforementioned variables. In fact, it appears that the impact of currency crises on economic growth and foreign direct investment is negative respectively. However, this study indicates that foreign direct investment can be positively correlated with currency crises as contrary to the common belief. The current study analyzes these relationships through dynamic panel models. The annual panel data for 71 emerging and developing countries are extracted from reliable databases for the time period of 2005–2014. Generalized method of moments estimators are used to obtain efficient and consistent results so as to reach necessary conclusions. The majority of estimated coefficients are significant and unbiased statistically, and also consistent with the economic theories proposed. The main results indicate that the presence of a currency crisis in a particular economy has a negative impact on economic growth, while its effect on foreign investment inflows is most likely positive. Robustness tests demonstrate that used models in the study are both economically and econometrically robust and valid.

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DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2016.08.002

Authors: Marek Dabrowski

Abstract: Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, its successor states have suffered from cyclical currency crises. The most recent episode of 2014–2016 was caused by a combination of external and domestic factors. The former include tighter US monetary policy, slower global growth, and declining commodity prices, whereas the latter include the former Soviet Union (FSU) economies’ extreme macroeconomic fragility (a legacy of past crises), numerous microeconomic rigidities and structural distortions in addition to governmental deficits. In addition, the Russian–Ukraine conflict dealt a heavy blow to both economies and their neighbors. Effective anti-crisis policies must aim at eliminating all deep-rooted causes of repeated financial and macroeconomic turbulence and must involve deep structural and institutional reforms in the entire region.

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DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2016.06.005

Authors: Ichiro Iwasaki, Mathilde Maurel, Bogdan Meunier

Abstract: In this paper, we aim to empirically analyze the determinants of firm entry and exit in Russia using a regional-level panel data for the years of 2008–2014, with special emphasis on institutional failures and the politico-economic impact of external crises. We found that these two elements exhibit statistically significant and economically meaningful effects both on the creation and destruction of Russian firms, controlling for potentially explanatory factors. Our empirical results also suggest that the process of firm entry and exit is manifold across Russian regions due to their heterogeneity. Nevertheless, a surprisingly robust estimate of the world oil price (irrespective of the difference in target regions) suggests a possible high exposure of each Russian region to a global crisis. This comes from the importance of oil trade with the world and, accordingly, the ongoing crisis may bring a harmful influence to regeneration of Russian businesses.

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