Latest Articles from Russian Journal of Economics Latest 4 Articles from Russian Journal of Economics https://rujec.org/ Fri, 29 Mar 2024 01:41:05 +0200 Pensoft FeedCreator https://rujec.org/i/logo.jpg Latest Articles from Russian Journal of Economics https://rujec.org/ New approaches to international reserves: The lack of credibility in reserve currencies https://rujec.org/article/98242/ Russian Journal of Economics 8(4): 315-332

DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.98242

Authors: Evgeny Y. Vinokurov, Marina V. Grichik, Taras V. Tsukarev

Abstract: The ongoing international reserve paradigm based on trust will experience a major transformation despite being convenient, flexible and low-cost. The underlying issue is a loss of trust. Due to the massive financial sanctions imposed on Russia and other states, traditional reserve currencies have lost their footing, compromising confidence in international reserves. Consequently, countries will need a comprehensive revision of their reserve asset management options. This paper overviews these options, which range from trade-offs to non-orthodox solutions. In total, we list twelve options, which can be categorized into three groups according to their novelty and “degree of orthodoxy­.” The first group implies countries can expand the use of available instruments, i.e., investments in gold, renminbi, and currencies of friendly countries, and enlarge the network of swap lines and the toolbox of sovereign wealth funds. In the second group, options call for the introduction of new mechanisms for international reserves functions, such as accumulating physical resources and private cryptocurrencies­, issuing stablecoins by central banks, and building up assets of regional financing arrangements. The third group includes options to shift the energy standard (currency) paradigm and establish a synthetic international currency or form a macroeconomic paradigm with no international reserves. Furthermore, applying our analysis, we move beyond Russia and look at the issue from the perspective of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization members and observers, as it is a leading platform where countries openly discuss this matter.

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Research Article Tue, 20 Dec 2022 10:00:01 +0200
Oil markets between Scylla of recovery and Charybdis of climate policy https://rujec.org/article/95949/ Russian Journal of Economics 8(3): 207-233

DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.95949

Authors: Leonid M. Grigoryev, Ekaterina A. Kheifets

Abstract: In 2020 the energy transition path was distorted by the COVID-19 pandemic which caused a sharp economic decline and a fast global recovery in 2021. Unlike that period, the years between 2001 and 2019 illustrated a different type of energy evolution for developed and developing countries regarding primary energy consumption. During this period the composition of energy balances of these two major groups demonstrated dramatic disparity, notably marked by the high share of coal in developing countries. The shock of 2020 led to a belief in expediting the transition to green energy, but in 2021 the economic recovery revived demand for oil and coal, dashing hopes for the growing renewable energy sources sector in the European Union that year. The return of coal, however, to the EU energy sector and stable demand for motor fuel globally led to the restoration of the GHG emission growth against the backdrop of the climate policy implementation failure. The current energy transition is denoted by features such as the flat oil demand in developed countries, the flat global demand for motor gasoline and the growing demand for diesel. The econometrics of demand for two motor oil products are quite opposite. For gasoline we have almost all hypotheses met: the negative influence of climate policy and oil prices, strong effect of dummies for shock of 2020 and 2021, and naturally 0.3 coefficient at GDP growth rate. Nevertheless, for diesel everything is exactly the opposite — only 0,4 coefficient at GDP and practically nothing else. This effect shows the strong role and trend for cargo use of diesel fueled trucks in the global economy. The high income of oil and gas majors in 2021 did not secure the investment upturn. A mature oil industry receives substantial profits for its investors, supplying dividends, and buying back debts without enlarging production capacities. At this point climate policy expectations of phasing out fossil fuels in the foreseeable future operated as a braking mechanism against reinvesting oil incomes. Moreover, at this junction we can observe governments’ limited capacity to pursue policies toward multiple objectives simultaneously: modest energy prices, energy transition and securing the sufficient capital formation for energy. The continued fusion of the economic upturn and energy transition will be dependent on demand and supply matching in the oil markets. It is also possible that the sanctions policies of 2022 may aggravate the situation, triggering high prices and uncertainties.

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Research Article Thu, 6 Oct 2022 20:56:11 +0300
Twenty years of the G20: Has it changed global economic governance? https://rujec.org/article/49435/ Russian Journal of Economics 5(4): 412-440

DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.5.49435

Authors: Suman Bery, Filippo Biondi, Sybrand Brekelmans

Abstract: The G20 has become the preeminent forum for international economic coordination. Twenty years after its creation, the paper reviews its performance with respect to the coordination of macroeconomic policies. The retrospective assessment focuses on two main questions: (i) Have the G20 summits succeeded in promoting macroeconomic policies with positive cross-border consequences, while preventing the opposite? (ii) To what extent has expanding the G7 to a diverse group of emerging and developing economies significantly changed the discourse and affected substantive outcomes? We argue that the G20 played a key role during the crisis of 2008, but policy coordination has been problematic since. Our review suggests that the G20 Presidencies of the emerging economies have made considerable efforts to shape the agenda toward issues of their interest, but have not always prevailed, notably on issues of global financial governance.

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Research Article Fri, 20 Dec 2019 11:00:06 +0200
Relative social inequality in the world: Rigidity against the economic growth, 1992–2016 https://rujec.org/article/35485/ Russian Journal of Economics 5(1): 46-66

DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.5.35485

Authors: Leonid M. Grigoryev, Victoria A. Pavlyushina

Abstract: The study of economic growth and social inequality goes back to the works of S. Kuznets, A. Atkinson, P. Krugman, J. Stiglitz, T. Piketti, and B. Milanovic. Statistical analysis of social inequalities for a large set of countries, divided into seven clusters, was conducted for the period 2000–2016. The share of incomes of the 10th decile was used as a measure of inequality. The hypothesis of the positive impact of economic growth on the reduction of social inequality was tested. Stylized facts on an array of 106 countries for the period under review indicate a high degree of stability of the level of inequality in most groups, especially in the most developed countries, and in particular in the Anglo-Saxon ones. The distribution of key socioeconomic and even political indicators for clusters shows their strong relationship with the structure of cluster inequality. This makes it possible to significantly deepen the analysis, in particular the one concerning the stages of world development.

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Research Article Wed, 17 Apr 2019 12:37:36 +0300