DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.163408

Authors: Dao Van Le, Tuyen Quang Tran

Abstract: This study presents fresh evidence on the impact of social unrest on the subjective well-being of approximately 400,000 individuals worldwide from 1981 to 2022. Utilizing data from a media reports platform allows us to capture the effects of unrest with a lag of about one month, as opposed to conventional national-level data. The results provide clear evidence of a growing negative effect of regional instability — causing a decline in people’s welfare. Notably, examining government actions during this period using the Integrated Macroprudential Policy (iMaPP) Database reveals that governments may mitigate the adverse effects of social unrest on citizens’ satisfaction through policies concerning liquidity adjustments and relaxed reserve requirements. Still, most other actions appear to exacerbate the situation. The findings of this study suggest practical implications for the design of prudent policy measures during periods of instability to enhance the subjective well-being of their citizens.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.141382

Authors: Oleg V. Buklemishev

Abstract: The article examines historical aspects, general economic logic, and theoretical discussions on the policy of stimulating the economy through increased government appropriations for defense items. It provides a brief overview of empirical studies on economic effects of defense spending in Russia and other countries. The secondary nature and low manageability of economic effects of defense policy are emphasized. The size of the fiscal impulse due to defense items of government expenditure, its positive and negative effects are analyzed in the Russian economy for the period 2022–2024. In addition to the unlikely gains through security and supply channels, the limited availability of free production capacity and labor force are stressed among the factors hindering the positive demand effects of increased defense spending. This gives rise to inflationary consequences, as well as the contradiction between tightening monetary conditions and continuing fiscal stimulation. A conclusion is made about the prevalence and possible aggravation of negative outcomes of sustaining and expanding military outlays.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.111967

Authors: Eugene L. Goryunov, Sergey M. Drobyshevsky, Alexey L. Kudrin, Pavel V. Trunin

Abstract: The paper examines the factors of global inflation acceleration in 2021–2022. We consider primarily the developed economies, where rates of inflation over the last two years have exceeded multi-year highs and have significantly exceeded target levels. We find that the cause of accelerating inflation was an imbalance between aggregate demand, which started to increase rapidly in the second half of 2020 as economies began to adapt to the circumstances of the pandemic, and aggregate supply, which encountered persistent constraints associated with interruptions in global supply chains. Significant support for demand was provided by fiscal stimulus that was unprecedented in scale and was accompanied by policy interest rates reaching extremely low levels, and by active injections of liquidity by central banks. The willingness of governments to implement ultra-expansionary monetary and fiscal policies can to a considerable degree be attributed to the fact that during the previous decade large budget deficits, zero interest rates, and programs of quantitative easing had not resulted in macroeconomic destabilization. We examine the view of many central banks that the inflationary wave would not be long-lasting, which was a crucial reason for delaying the interest rates increase. We consider the conditions in which the leading economies might fall into the stagflation trap.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.6.55867

Authors: Vladimir A. Mau

Abstract: This article presents an analysis of the key challenges facing the global economy, as well as the impact of these challenges on Russia. It addresses main collisions that have emerged in recent years, including the proliferation of etatism and populism, increasing social and political polarization, the growing importance of national issues vs the global agenda, as well as the social, economic and political consequences of using digital technologies against the backdrop of the global economy spiraling into an unprecedented crisis. The pandemic and its global economic impact are analyzed within the context of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. This is the foundation which we set for discussing Russia’s economic agenda.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.5.35234

Authors: Vladimir A. Mau

Abstract: This paper deals with global trends and their influence on Russian economic and social performance. A new economic crisis is looming, and the lack of institutional reforms, which were put on the agenda by the crisis of 2008–2009, is a source of current concern. In 2018 Russian authorities announced a set of national goals and projects as the central point of social and economic policy for 2018–2024. The new economic growth policy includes the shift from the demand-side growth model to the supply-side one, broad implementation of project methods in economic policy, and continuation of conservative fiscal and monetary policy.

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DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2017.09.004

Authors: Evgeny Vinokurov, Mikhail Demidenko, Dmitry Korshunov, Mihaly Kovacs

Abstract: After achieving substantial progress in establishing a common customs territory and regulations, customs unions face potential disruptions due to a lack of monetary policy coordination. These disruptions might appear in the form of currency shocks and the ensuing trade conflicts. We approach this issue by looking at the case of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The volatility of national currencies in 2014–2015 resulted in sizable shifts in competitiveness, culminating in a currency crisis in some member states. This raises the questions of how to gradually achieve a more coordinated monetary policy, what monetary policy options are available, and what would be their relative impact on macroeconomic stability. Using a set of modeling tools and econometric models, we review three monetary regimes, which represent moves from fully independent exchange rate policy through increased policy coordination to joint exchange rate setting.

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DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2016.11.001

Authors: Dmitry Medvedev

Abstract: This paper addresses Russian economic development and economic policy in 2015–2016. The analysis focuses on external and domestic challenges as well as the anti-crisis policy of the Russian government. Special attention is paid to key elements of the new model of economic growth in Russia. The paper discusses economic policy priorities for sustainable growth that include budget efficiency, structural reforms and import substitution, the encouragement of entrepreneurship, the efficiency of public administration, and the modernization of the welfare state.

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