DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.127850

Authors: Maria S. Lymar, Alexander A. Reentovich, Andrey A. Sinyakov

Abstract: We study the situation when a commodity-exporting economy is under sanctions and cannot use its accumulated fx-reserves or attract new fx-debt to smooth import restrictions amid slower decline of income flow from a commodity-export. Our study attempts to determine the adequate response of the economy, depending on assumptions about the possibilities of import substitution within a structural dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated on Russian data. We use a modified version of the Ramsey–Cass–Koopmans’ model to evaluate aggregate and structural changes in the economy in the shorter and longer run. We consider several scenarios with different assumptions about the efficiency of import substitution, which is defined along two dimensions (for consumers as well as for producers). The results show that trade restrictions make import substitution optimal, but only in those sectors where such substitution is relatively more effective. Limited labour resources in the economy are compensated with higher capital intensity of production in the optimistic and neutral scenarios. Reallocation of resources to build up the necessary capital intensity calls for temporarily higher saving rates. As a result, GDP may be higher, but consumption may be lower comparing to the baseline. The results mean that effectiveness of import substitution should be taken into account in decision making on industrial policy. If efficiency of import-substitution is asymmetric and biased to goods for final consumption relative to goods for investments, the structure of imported goods becomes biased to the latter. The results imply higher relative price of consumer goods.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.101612

Authors: Duc Huu Nguyen, Irina P. Khominich

Abstract: The study presents a Green Economy Index that evaluates the quality of green economies in the BRICS countries based on three pillars: environment, economic performance, and quality of green living. Research findings suggest that the BRICS nations are gradually shifting their focus from mere economic growth to encompassing environmental, social welfare, and equality concerns. Russia showcased the best balance among these three pillars from 2011 to 2020, while India and China made notable strides. Nevertheless, Brazil and South Africa face obstacles in improving their economies and increasing social welfare. The indicators highlight specific challenges each country must address, including high unemployment in Brazil and South Africa, low energy intensity in Russia and China, and air pollution and low Human Development Index in India, alongside shared issues like low government transparency. Based on the research significant findings, the study attempts to address whether the BRICS nations should prioritize financing environmental protection, economic growth, or social goals to maintain a balance among all the three pillars and achieve their green economy objectives.

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DOI: 10.3897/j.ruje.4.27743

Authors: Vladimir Mau

Abstract: The paper discusses the main challenges of Russian economy at the turning period from contraction to growth. The analysis is based on comparison of global economic trends and special features of Russian performance. Among global problems, it concentrates on prospects of “non-inflation growth”, perspectives of global currencies and the role of cryptocurrencies, central banks independence and their role in economic growth stimulation, new tasks and patterns of government regulation, inequality and growth. In the Russian case, the key topics are prospects of macroeconomic stimulation of growth, inflation targeting, new fiscal rule, social dynamics and new challenges to welfare state. The paper concludes that the main obstacles for economic growth in Russia are concentrated in the non-economic area.

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DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2016.11.001

Authors: Dmitry Medvedev

Abstract: This paper addresses Russian economic development and economic policy in 2015–2016. The analysis focuses on external and domestic challenges as well as the anti-crisis policy of the Russian government. Special attention is paid to key elements of the new model of economic growth in Russia. The paper discusses economic policy priorities for sustainable growth that include budget efficiency, structural reforms and import substitution, the encouragement of entrepreneurship, the efficiency of public administration, and the modernization of the welfare state.

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DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2015.11.004

Authors: Dmitry Medvedev

Abstract: The article considers social and economic challenges that Russia faces in the context of present-day global transformation. Key technological, economic, and social trends, which determine the contours of the post-crisis world, are analyzed. A long-term agenda for the country's development aimed at securing a new quality of economic growth is proposed.

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