Latest Articles from Russian Journal of Economics Latest 7 Articles from Russian Journal of Economics https://rujec.org/ Fri, 29 Mar 2024 00:03:39 +0200 Pensoft FeedCreator https://rujec.org/i/logo.jpg Latest Articles from Russian Journal of Economics https://rujec.org/ The Russian labor market: Long-term trends and short-term fluctuations https://rujec.org/article/113503/ Russian Journal of Economics 9(3): 245-270

DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.113503

Authors: Rostislav I. Kapeliushnikov

Abstract: This paper provides a statistical portrait of the Russian labor market during the latest period of 2010–2022. The analysis delves into both the long-term trends in its evolution and short-term fluctuations associated with its adjustment to economic downturns. The most noteworthy among the long-term changes are a gradual shrinkage of the labor force and employment, the transition to record low unemployment, a sharp acceleration in worker turnover, and the emergence of an extensive overhang of unfilled job vacancies. During the period under review, the Russian economy experienced three strong adverse macroeconomic shocks — the first sanctions crisis in 2014–2015, the corona crisis in 2000–2021, and the second sanctions crisis, which began in 2022 and is still far from over. The paper provides the evidence that the Russian labor market has retained the same algorithm for accommodation to economic downturns, which it developed back in the 1990s. A distinctive feature of this specific model is that the negative shocks are absorbed predominantly through declines in wages and reductions in working hours, rather than through contraction of employment and surge in unemployment. The general conclusion is that the Russian labor market is undergoing a transition from a functional regime marked by tight labor demand to another characterized by tight labor supply.

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Research Article Tue, 3 Oct 2023 10:54:03 +0300
Brazil in the 21st century: A difficult path https://rujec.org/article/78432/ Russian Journal of Economics 7(3): 250-268

DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.7.78432

Authors: Leonid M. Grigoryev, Marina F. Starodubtseva

Abstract: Brazilian economic reforms in 21st century have great importance for the international community, especially for other countries of the middle level of development. The authors­ believe that, in spite of all the difficulties and crises, Brazil has made a decisive step forward by reforming its social structure and retaining democracy. Social reforms (especially­ minimal wage) led to strengthening middle class, but also to elevating its social aspirations. At this dramatic junction the economic development of the country was aggravated by external shocks and unsuccessful budget policies. The complex interaction of social macro­economic policies in Brazil with strong external shocks gives lessons to countries with similar characteristics. The pandemic and recession of 2020–2021 have made the path of development more complicated but there is room for optimism for Brazil in the long run.

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Research Article Fri, 3 Dec 2021 18:00:05 +0200
Decomposition of growth rates for the Russian economy https://rujec.org/article/33617/ Russian Journal of Economics 4(4): 305-327

DOI: 10.3897/j.ruje.4.33617

Authors: Sergey Drobyshevsky, Georgy Idrisov, Andrey Kaukin, Pavel Pavlov, Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev

Abstract: In this paper, we present a methodology of GDP growth rate decomposition adapted for the Russian economy. We calculated the indicators for structural unemployment (NAWRU) and total factor productivity in Russia. We estimated the structural, foreign trade and cyclical components of GDP growth rates under various macroeconomic scenarios for the period from 2018 through 2024. The study shows that a significant contribution to growth rates for the period 2018 through 2024 will be made by the sum of the business cycle and random shock component, which, combined with the revitalization of investments in 2017, may indicate the beginning of a new cycle of economic growth in Russia. In the scenarios reviewed, the contribution from the foreign trade component will be negative from 2018 to 2024. The calculations indicate further stagnation of structural growth rates in the Russian economy from 2018 to 2024 at the level of approximately 1.5 p.p. in all of the basic macroeconomic scenarios reviewed. This points to the inexpediency in postponing structural reforms to create conditions for Russia’s economy to achieve growth rates that exceed world averages.

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Research Article Mon, 31 Dec 2018 11:12:02 +0200
Hyman Minsky's financial instability hypothesis and the Greek debt crisis https://rujec.org/article/27959/ Russian Journal of Economics 1(4): 419-438

DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2016.02.005

Authors: Sergey Beshenov, Ivan Rozmainsky

Abstract: This article attempts to analyze the current debt crisis in Greece based on the financial instability hypothesis developed by Hyman Minsky. This article shows that the hypothesis provides an understanding of how an economy endogenously becomes “financially fragile” and thus prone to crises. The authors analyze how public and private sector behavior in the Greek economy led to the country's debt crisis. In particular, based on a sample of 36 Greek companies, the authors show that between 2001 and 2014, the majority of those companies had switched to fragile financial structures. Special attention is devoted to the negative consequences of applying the neoclassical doctrine of “austerity measures” in Greece as the principal “anti-crisis” concept of mainstream economic science.

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Research Article Mon, 30 Nov 2015 00:00:00 +0200
Output gap uncertainty and real-time monetary policy https://rujec.org/article/27955/ Russian Journal of Economics 1(4): 329-358

DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2016.02.001

Authors: Francesco Grigoli, Alexander Herman, Andrew Swiston, Gabriel Di Bella

Abstract: Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing principally to the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. We show that country desks tend to overestimate economic slack, especially during recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap revisions is predictable based on output dynamics, data quality, and policy frameworks. We also show that for a group of Latin American inflation targeters the prescriptions from monetary policy rules are subject to large changes due to revised output gap estimates. These explain a sizable proportion of the deviation of inflation from target, suggesting this information is not accounted for in real-time policy decisions.

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Research Article Mon, 30 Nov 2015 00:00:00 +0200
A theoretical interpretation of the oil prices impact on economic growth in contemporary Russia https://rujec.org/article/27951/ Russian Journal of Economics 1(3): 257-272

DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.004

Authors: Georgy Idrisov, Maria Kazakova, Andrey Polbin

Abstract: This article analyzes the impact of global oil prices on Russia's economic growth and its growth rate in terms of output. It also reviews the mechanics of the long-term and short-term impacts on output resulting from changes in oil prices. The authors argue that the effect of oil prices on output has decreased dramatically under current economic conditions ever since the period of recovery growth in the early 2000s. The main conclusion of the paper is that, on the basis of classical models, a constant increase in oil prices cannot influence the long-term economic growth rate and only predetermines short-term transitional trends from one long-term equilibrium to another.

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Research Article Mon, 31 Aug 2015 00:00:00 +0300
Economic Fluctuations in Russia (from the late 1920s to 2015) https://rujec.org/article/27945/ Russian Journal of Economics 1(2): 130-153

DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2015.11.002

Authors: Sergey Smirnov

Abstract: In many respects, the historical trajectory of the Russian economy during the XX century has been a terra incognita until now. As for official statistics, at least three important reasons can be given for this. First, many relevant indicators were either not measured or were kept secret and never published. Second, Russia (as the RSFSR) was a part of the USSR, and statistics for the RSFSR were much less prevalent than for the USSR as a whole (historical changes in Russia's borders also require special consideration). Third, an ideological dogma implied the absence of inflation in the planned Soviet economy; therefore, all deflators (if any) were underestimated, and all aggregates in constant and/or comparable prices were overestimated (as were the corresponding growth rates). As for the unofficial historical estimates, most of them were focused on the USSR, not on the RSFSR; therefore, there is a considerable risk in using them as a proxy for historical indicators of the Russian Federation. Hence, our first aim was to construct statistical time series that might be useful in describing the long-term trajectory of the Russian (the RSFSR and/or the RF) economy. Using previously unpublished data stored in Russian archives, we attempted to extend them as far back as possible; in fact, most of the series began in the late 1920s. Our second aim was to denote periods of growth and contraction in the Russian economy and to reveal the economic factors that caused changes in trajectory. Periods of contraction during the era of the planned economy were of special interest for us. We found that recessions had occurred, not only in the market but also in the planned Russian economy (of course, with a significant remark that contractions in the planned economy were much rarer but evidently more destructive).

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Research Article Sun, 31 May 2015 00:00:00 +0300