Latest Articles from Russian Journal of Economics Latest 13 Articles from Russian Journal of Economics https://rujec.org/ Fri, 29 Mar 2024 14:18:06 +0200 Pensoft FeedCreator https://rujec.org/i/logo.jpg Latest Articles from Russian Journal of Economics https://rujec.org/ Spatial segregation and human capital of impoverished areas in China: Implications for livelihood resilience building https://rujec.org/article/108719/ Russian Journal of Economics 9(4): 424-439

DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.108719

Authors: Yuheng Li, Haowen Jia, Wei Xiao, Alexey S. Naumov

Abstract: Improving people’s livelihood resilience against risks and challenges plays an important role in consolidating the achievements of poverty reduction. The paper uses 64 poverty-stricken counties in China’s Sichuan province as the study area and explores the link between spatial segregation and human capital. The results show that the proximity (spatial segregation) is significantly and negatively associated with people’s educational attainment and their acquisition of non-farming employment. Residents in villages which are distant from the county center tend to obtain less educational opportunities and are less likely to engage in non-farming jobs than those who are close to the county center. The mediating effect analysis indicates that remoteness mainly reduces the propensity of getting non-farming jobs by reducing the human capital of rural residents. Further analysis shows that the association between proximity, human capital and the probability of acquiring non-farming work is higher in areas with lower economic level and less developed transportation infrastructure. Policy implications for improving people’s livelihood resilience in impoverished areas are proposed in the paper.

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Research Article Wed, 20 Dec 2023 18:00:07 +0200
Rural employment in Russia: Present conditions and prospects for agricultural and non-agricultural sectors https://rujec.org/article/112008/ Russian Journal of Economics 9(4): 351-370

DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.112008

Authors: Yulia N. Nikulina

Abstract: Contributing to a discussion on rural employment forecast in Russia, this paper sys­tematizes the challenges for the rural labor market: population outflow, weak impulses to develop non-agricultural employment and rural entrepreneurship, changing labor needs in agriculture and a decline in the number of labor migrants. The results of the regional differentiation research show that the response strategies of Russian regions to stabilize employment differ significantly and include active intra-Russian labor migration or reliance on high agricultural state support, development of self-employment and jobs preservation in labor-intensive, low-productivity sectors of agricultural production. The article discusses rural development prospects associated with the return migration of urban residents to rural areas, which creates a new basis for rural employment growth. A theoretical implication of the rural employment perspectives discussion is the proposed concept of “out-of-urban employment” that actualizes the traditional approach of seeking employment only for indigenous rural people who have lost their jobs in agriculture, and includes new types and forms of employment for urban dwellers. Analysis of the current state support for rural employment in Russia shows that it is poorly aligned with the existing challenges. The scale of both financing and the number of potential participants is small; direct support measures are limited to the agricultural sector, while indirect ones — through support for rural infrastructure — create mainly public sector employment. The practical implications of the outcomes are some proposed ways of developing measures to support rural employment, taking into account non-agricultural rural economy needs.

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Research Article Wed, 20 Dec 2023 18:00:03 +0200
The Russian labor market: Long-term trends and short-term fluctuations https://rujec.org/article/113503/ Russian Journal of Economics 9(3): 245-270

DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.113503

Authors: Rostislav I. Kapeliushnikov

Abstract: This paper provides a statistical portrait of the Russian labor market during the latest period of 2010–2022. The analysis delves into both the long-term trends in its evolution and short-term fluctuations associated with its adjustment to economic downturns. The most noteworthy among the long-term changes are a gradual shrinkage of the labor force and employment, the transition to record low unemployment, a sharp acceleration in worker turnover, and the emergence of an extensive overhang of unfilled job vacancies. During the period under review, the Russian economy experienced three strong adverse macroeconomic shocks — the first sanctions crisis in 2014–2015, the corona crisis in 2000–2021, and the second sanctions crisis, which began in 2022 and is still far from over. The paper provides the evidence that the Russian labor market has retained the same algorithm for accommodation to economic downturns, which it developed back in the 1990s. A distinctive feature of this specific model is that the negative shocks are absorbed predominantly through declines in wages and reductions in working hours, rather than through contraction of employment and surge in unemployment. The general conclusion is that the Russian labor market is undergoing a transition from a functional regime marked by tight labor demand to another characterized by tight labor supply.

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Research Article Tue, 3 Oct 2023 10:54:03 +0300
The effect of FDI on the host countries’ employment: A meta-regression analysis https://rujec.org/article/98252/ Russian Journal of Economics 9(2): 158-182

DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.98252

Authors: Dani Rahman Hakim, Eeng Ahman, Kusnendi Kusnendi

Abstract: This study performed a meta-regression analysis (MRA) to reexamine the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the host countries’ employment. We detected a publication bias and heterogeneity between studies by employing 61 publications with 477 estimates as the dataset. Studies that do not control for endogeneity suffer an upward publication bias. In contrast, we found a downward publication bias in the studies that control endogeneity. After correcting that bias, we found a small positive effect of FDI on the host countries’ employment as the genuine effect. By using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) analysis, we found six moderator variables that could explain heterogeneity. These moderator variables are related to the FDI and employment measurement type, data characteristics, FDIreceiving countries, and estimation methods.

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Research Article Mon, 17 Jul 2023 21:11:45 +0300
General equilibrium model with the entrepreneurial sector for the Russian economy https://rujec.org/article/105790/ Russian Journal of Economics 9(2): 109-133

DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.105790

Authors: Elizaveta V. Martyanova, Andrey V. Polbin

Abstract: This paper proposes a general equilibrium model with the entrepreneurial sector for the Russian economy. The novelty of the model lies in several points. First, the model is a small open economy. Second, it includes the entrepreneurial sector. Third, the model reflects the main features of the Russian economy. Five experiments were conducted, for which steady states and transitions were computed. These experiments included: (1) an export price shock, (2) redistribution of government consumption between the corporate and entrepreneurial sectors, (3) relaxation of collateral requirements, (4) a credit rate subsidy for entrepreneurs, (5) VAT for entrepreneurs. The export price shock results in lower entrepreneurial output due to higher wages in the short run, but in the long run the positive effects of increased demand and assets lead to higher output. Increased government consumption of entrepreneurial goods leads to a reallocation of resources from the corporate sector to the entrepreneurial one. The relaxation of collateral requirements leads to a sharp increase in entrepreneurial investment and capital and a decline in the number of entrepreneurs, which means that they become bigger. The credit rate subsidy leads to an increase in capital in the entrepreneurial sector, and then in output. The cost of subsidies leads to a decrease in lump-sum transfers, but this does not lead to a significant change in household consumption. The introduction of a value-added tax on entrepreneurial goods leads to a redistribution of resources from the entrepreneurial sector to the corporate one, lower household consumption and higher GDP.

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Research Article Mon, 17 Jul 2023 21:03:03 +0300
A multicountry macroeconometric model for the Eurasian Economic Union https://rujec.org/article/72368/ Russian Journal of Economics 7(4): 354-370

DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.7.72368

Authors: Aizhan Bolatbayeva

Abstract: This paper introduces a multicountry macroeconometric model for the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The model consists of five single-country models of the union member states: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia. The purpose of the research is to explain the structural relationship between the economies, evaluate the impact of internal and external shocks, and analyze the transmission mechanism of shocks across countries. The single-country models are linked to each other by the equations of bilateral trade and bilateral exchange rate. We find that the model fits actual data on main macroeconomic indicators of the countries in a dynamic ex-post simulation over 2004–2018. We also evaluate the effect of world trade and monetary policy shocks on the economies of the EAEU member states.

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Research Article Thu, 30 Dec 2021 18:40:12 +0200
Leontief and his German period https://rujec.org/article/58034/ Russian Journal of Economics 7(1): 67-90

DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.7.58034

Authors: Harald Hagemann

Abstract: Wassily Leontief jun. (1905–1999) moved to Berlin in April 1925 after getting his first academic degree from the University of Leningrad. In Berlin he mainly studied with Werner Sombart and Ladislaus von Bortkiewicz who were the referees of his Ph.D. thesis “The economy as a circular flow” (1928). From spring 1927 until April 1931 Leontief was a member of the research staff at the Kiel Institute of World Economics, interrupted by the period from April 1929 to March 1930 when he was an advisor to the Chinese Ministry of Railroads. In the journal of the Kiel Institute, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, Leontief had already published his first article “Die Bilanz der russischen Volkswirtschaft. Eine methodologische Untersuchung” [The balance of the Russian economy. A methodological investigation] in 1925. In Kiel Leontief primarily worked on the statistical analysis of supply and demand curves. Leontief’s method triggered a fierce critique by Ragnar Frisch, which launched a heavy debate on “pitfalls” in the construction of supply and demand curves. The debate started in Germany but was continued in the USA where Leontief became a researcher at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in summer 1931. The Leontief–Frisch controversy culminated in the Quarterly Journal of Economics (1934), published by Harvard University, where Leontief made his subsequent career from 1932–1975. His later analysis of the employment consequences of technological change in the 1980s had some roots in his Kiel period.

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Research Article Wed, 31 Mar 2021 19:49:35 +0300
Global energy trilemma https://rujec.org/article/58683/ Russian Journal of Economics 6(4): 437-462

DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.6.58683

Authors: Leonid M. Grigoryev, Dzhanneta D. Medzhidova

Abstract: The international community has become increasingly concerned with sustainable development and particularly with preventing climate change. The COVID-19 pandemic and global recession of 2020 will exacerbate the situation not just for 2020–2021, but for many years to come. Sadly, it is a game-changer. The necessity to solve problems of poverty (energy poverty) and inequality, as well as growth and climate change mitigation, now haunts intellectuals, forecasters, and politicians. These three problems constitute the global energy trilemma (GET). There is a wide range of forecasts, scenarios, and political plans emerging after the Paris Agreement in 2015. They demonstrate concerns about the slow progress on the matter; however, they still increase the goals for 2030–2050. The global capital formation is a key tool for changes while also representing the hard-budget investment constraints. This article examines practical features of recent trends in energy, poverty, and climate change mitigation, arguing that allocation and coordinated management of sufficient financial resources are vital for a simultaneous solution of GET. No group of countries can hope to solve each of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) separately. The global economy has reached the point where it has an urgent need for cooperation.

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Research Article Mon, 14 Dec 2020 17:39:20 +0200
The determinants of foreign direct investment in Central Asian region: A case study of Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan (A quantitative analysis using GMM) https://rujec.org/article/48556/ Russian Journal of Economics 6(2): 162-176

DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.6.48556

Authors: Sharofiddin Ashurov, Anwar Hasan Abdullah Othman, Romzie Bin Rosman, Razali Bin Haron

Abstract: Foreign direct investment (FDI) is viewed as one of the most crucial forms of capital inflows and significant drivers of economic growth in numerous countries. In particular, developing countries, emerging economies and countries engaged in the process of development have recognized the crucial importance of FDI as a critical contributor to their economic progress and increasing economic opportunities. The following research investigated and identified the determinants of FDI in the Central Asian countries, specifically Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, between 2000 and 2017. The methodology employed in the first part included comparative analysis of the foreign investment trends and gross domestic product (GDP), as well as an endogenous growth model. The result showed that five variables are robustly significant of FDI determinants: FDI (previous year), GDP, labor force, trade openness and tax. Additionally, this paper demonstrates that among the most significant FDI contributors are China, Russia and Japan as well as European countries because of the economic opportunities available; however, the USA is considered by Central Asian countries to offer the most opportunities for security control considerations rather than economic opportunities. Furthermore, the results suggest that the authorities in the Central Asia region should enhance the stability of their economic growth, labor force, trade openness and tax regulations to attract more FDI to the region.

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Research Article Tue, 30 Jun 2020 13:58:07 +0300
A macroeconometric model for Russia https://rujec.org/article/47009/ Russian Journal of Economics 6(2): 114-143

DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.6.47009

Authors: Aizhan Bolatbayeva, Alisher Tolepbergen, Nurdaulet Abilov

Abstract: The paper outlines a structural macroeconometric model for the economy of Russia. The aim of the research is to analyze how the domestic economy functions, generate forecasts for important macroeconomic indicators and evaluate the responses of main endogenous variables to various shocks. The model is estimated based on quarterly data starting from 2001 to 2019. The majority of the equations are specified in error correction form due to the non-stationarity of variables. Stochastic simulation is used to solve the model for expost and ex-ante analysis. We compare forecasts of the model with forecasts generated by the VAR model. The results indicate that the present model outperforms the VAR model in terms of forecasting GDP growth, inflation rate and unemployment rate. We also evaluate the responses of main macroeconomic variables to VAT rate and world trade shocks via stochastic simulation. Finally, we generate ex-ante forecasts for the Russian economy under the baseline assumptions.

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Research Article Tue, 30 Jun 2020 04:05:53 +0300
The phantom of technological unemployment https://rujec.org/article/35507/ Russian Journal of Economics 5(1): 88-116

DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.5.35507

Authors: Rostislav Kapeliushnikov

Abstract: Nowadays there are many gloomy prophecies provided by both technologists and economists about the detrimental effects of the so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution on aggregate employment and its composition. These prophecies imply that in the near future we will face Robocalypse — a massive replacement of people by machines alongside an explosion in joblessness. This paper provides theoretical, empirical and historical evidence that the phenomenon of technological unemployment is a phantom. The most general results can be summarized as follows: in the long run, reduction in labor demand under the impact of new technologies is merely a theoretical possibility that has never before been realized in practice; at the level of individual firms, there is a strong positive relationship between innovations and employment growth; at the sectoral level, technological changes cause a multidirectional employment response, since different industries are at different stages of the life cycle; at the macro level, technological progress acts as a positive or neutral, but not a negative factor; a surge in technological unemployment, even in the short-term, seems a remote prospect since in coming decades the pace of technological change is unlikely to be fast enough by historical standards; the impact of new technologies on labor supply may be a more serious problem than their impact on labor demand; technological changes seem to have a much greater effect on the composition of employment than on its level.

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Research Article Wed, 17 Apr 2019 09:10:50 +0300
Russia's economy: Before the long transition https://rujec.org/article/27970/ Russian Journal of Economics 2(3): 219-245

DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2016.08.001

Authors: Natalya Akindinova, Yaroslav Kuzminov, Evgeny Yasin

Abstract: This article explains the main stages and results of economic development in Russia since the early 1990s. It describes the process of the formation and the basic features of a three-sector economic model, as well as the reasons for its stability and existing constraints on economic growth. The authors consider the most likely scenario for the evolution of the current economic model under steadily declining export revenues. They also investigate fiscal and social risks and alternatives in economic policy.

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Research Article Wed, 31 Aug 2016 00:00:00 +0300
Russian devaluation in 2014–2015: Falling into the abyss or a window of opportunity? https://rujec.org/article/27949/ Russian Journal of Economics 1(3): 217-239

DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.005

Authors: Valeriy Mironov

Abstract: Falling oil prices are leading to a reduction in domestic demand and lowering of the ruble exchange rate, thus enhancing the price competitiveness of Russian producers and stimulating the supply side of the economy (especially in foreign markets unaffected by the recession). Indeed, all of this create the possibility of offsetting the decline in domestic demand to a varying degree through increased net exports. However, the present study shows that, taking into account all of the structural problems of the Russian economy, the devaluation of the ruble may lead to a more severe recession than anticipated by most experts in their estimates, judging by average consensus forecasts (as of the end of September 2015).

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Research Article Mon, 31 Aug 2015 00:00:00 +0300