DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.182554

Authors: Veronika A. Khlyupina, Svetlana V. Golovanova, Eduardo Pontual Ribeiro

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.145962

Authors: Luka Bašić

Abstract: This paper applies a macroeconometric approach to analyze structural shocks and their impact on the key transmission channels of monetary policy in Russia, focusing on the period since the imposition of sanctions and the monetary regime shift beginning in 2014. The approach combines the Lee–Strazicich LM test, used to identify structural breaks, with a Bayesian VAR model that estimates the posterior distribution of shock effects and responses. The model is further extended by dummy variables indicating the periods of imposed sanctions in 2014, the change in the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy in 2015, and the Russia–Ukraine conflict in 2022. The findings indicate that the interest rate transmission channel operates in a fully asymmetric manner: the short run is characterized by the monetary policy shift, and the long run — by the conflict in Ukraine, suggesting the implementation of an expansionary and later highly restrictive policy with a temporary dual approach. The credit and exchange rate transmission channels are identified as the two most important stabilization mechanisms for macroeconomic shocks, with the 2015 regime change significantly enhancing the absorption of exogenous shocks. In contrast, the extended price transmission channel exhibits a more moderate capacity for shock absorption, underscoring the Bank of Russia’s success in anchoring inflation expectations. Overall, the findings confirm that proactive monetary policy shapes inflation expectations effectively by employing two main tools: managing the key interest rate to control inflationary pressures and managing the ruble exchange rate to stabilize the economy.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.163408

Authors: Dao Van Le, Tuyen Quang Tran

Abstract: This study presents fresh evidence on the impact of social unrest on the subjective well-being of approximately 400,000 individuals worldwide from 1981 to 2022. Utilizing data from a media reports platform allows us to capture the effects of unrest with a lag of about one month, as opposed to conventional national-level data. The results provide clear evidence of a growing negative effect of regional instability — causing a decline in people’s welfare. Notably, examining government actions during this period using the Integrated Macroprudential Policy (iMaPP) Database reveals that governments may mitigate the adverse effects of social unrest on citizens’ satisfaction through policies concerning liquidity adjustments and relaxed reserve requirements. Still, most other actions appear to exacerbate the situation. The findings of this study suggest practical implications for the design of prudent policy measures during periods of instability to enhance the subjective well-being of their citizens.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.128519

Authors: Bhagirath Baria, Ria Kusumaningrum, Anggita Suryana, Devanshi Mehta

Abstract: This paper addresses a significant gap in the existing literature on financial inclusion — namely, the dynamic instability of the impacts generated by its determinants in four major emerging market economies: Brazil, Russia, India, and China. A time-varying coefficients framework is applied to examine whether the factors shaping financial inclusion at the aggregate level produce nonlinear effects over time. The analysis covers the period from 2000–2001 to 2022–2023. A composite financial inclusion index is constructed to capture inclusion across three key dimensions — availability, access, and usage — using the distance function approach. Three classes of determinants are modeled: socio-demographic, infrastructural, and macroeconomic variables. Evidence indicates structural instability in the financial inclusion process for the BRIC economies, with several determinants exerting nonlinear impacts over time. The findings challenge the conventional assumption of time-invariant relationships between financial inclusion and its dominant determinants. The results reveal considerable temporal volatility in the effects of macroeconomic factors, including growth and inflation, on financial inclusion across emerging markets. Policymakers should adjust strategies, moving beyond assumptions of linear processes and managing dynamic, nonlinear factors more effectively to achieve universal financial inclusion.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.164511

Authors: Zainab Mourad, Mert Gül

Abstract: Despite the growing emphasis on the nexus between growth and macroeconomic indicators, research on the influence of cryptocurrencies on economic performance remains limited. This study compares the impact of two leading cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum, on economic growth, alongside inflation, market uncertainty, and oil and gold prices, using panel data from 14 countries between Q3 2015 and Q3 2023. The results demonstrate robust cross-sectional dependence, indicating that economic shocks in one country affect the entire group. Therefore, second-generation tests are employed to confirm the presence of stationarity in the variables. Except for Bitcoin’s trading volume, panel fully modified ordinary least squares estimations reveal a significantly positive impact of cryptocurrencies on growth. Cointegration is present in the long run, while in the short run, strong bi- and unidirectional causality is found for all cryptocurrency proxies. The study provides insights that can help policymakers develop strategies to align economic growth with the crypto market, benefiting the broader economy.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.154180

Authors: Wasim Ullah

Abstract: Financial development plays a crucial role in shaping economic growth, yet it can introduce volatility. This study examines the relationship between financial development and economic growth volatility. Using panel data from 60 countries (30 developed and 30 developing) for 1981–2022, we employ panel-corrected standard errors and generalized method of moments to ensure robustness. Financial development is analyzed through financial institutions and financial markets across three dimensions: depth, access, and efficiency. Conceptually, the paper finds that the supply-leading hypothesis does not account for the economic growth volatility associated with excessive financialization. The results indicate that, at higher levels, financial development has a volatility-enhancing impact in developed countries, while in developing countries it has a volatility-reducing effect. Policymakers in developed countries should ensure that credit expansion is aligned with real-sector development. Regulators should monitor adverse effects of financial depth and ensure funds are directed toward real-sector growth, while improving access and efficiency. In a too‑much-finance scenario, economies need moderators — such as strong regulatory quality and well-defined rights for creditors and borrowers — to mitigate volatility-enhancing effects.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.134875

Authors: Mayya V. Dubovik, Irina P. Komarova, Dinh Trong An

Abstract: After each economic crisis, such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic, governments have used public investment as a crucial tool to help economies recover quickly. However, a significant concern is how to structure such investments to meet the intended objectives while avoiding risks during implementation. The crowding-in/out effect of public investment on private investment remains a hotly debated topic. To address this issue, the study utilized data from 63 provinces in Vietnam over the period from 2000 to 2023. Through the use of the Cross-Sectionally Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (CS-ARDL) model and robustness checks using the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) models, the research demonstrated that public investment has a crowding-in effect on private investment in the long term. Furthermore, the study identified two main causes of public investment crowding out private investment: first, when public investment exceeds the production capacity of the economy, and second, when public investment is inefficient. This conclusion is drawn from the analysis of the Russian economy. Additionally, the study employed the dynamic panel threshold model and found that if the ratio of public investment to GDP in Vietnam exceeds 8.532%, the crowding-out effect on private investment will occur. Moreover, the research also assessed the effectiveness of public investment in the context of climate change to identify shortcomings that need to be addressed immediately. These findings serve as important bases for proposing measures to improve the efficiency of public investment and avoid the crowding-out effect on private investment.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.159114

Authors: Veronika A. Khlyupina, Svetlana V. Golovanova, Eduardo Pontual Ribeiro

Abstract: Broadcast TV is a well-known example of a two-sided platform where cross network effects on the viewer and advertising sides interact. Like many platforms, it is advertiser-financed. While the literature shows that viewers dislike advertising, we explore a unique data set and distinguish between paid and non-paid (informative) ads. Cross-network effects’ estimates show that the latter carry a positive network effect on viewership. We also explore a significant change in public interest for more information in TV content in Russia in 2022 to estimate structural changes to cross-network effects. The results indicate that negative paid ads’ cross-network effects on viewership demand become stronger while positive non-paid (information) ads cross-network effects become weaker, even conditional on TV programing changes. Symmetrically, on the other side of the platform, advertisers value viewership less after the preference change.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.85599

Authors: Stanislav A. Rogachev, Yuri R. Ichkitidze

Abstract: We pioneer the estimation of technological progress parameters for Russia in the framework of the neoclassical theory. Implementing the CES production function (CES PF hereafter) as an instrument of output description, we construct a system of cointegrated time series which guarantee no spurious interpretations. Our analysis follows a logical transition from an aggregate to a sectoral level and is based on two convergent datasets of different length. For the aggregate economy most of our accepted models generally forecast a slight labor income share increase under capital-augmenting technical progress biased to labor. Selected models with structural break in 2008–2009 show below-unity elasticity of substitution between labor and capital. Sectoral estimates stand in support of labor income share (LS) growth across six of the eight analyzed economic sectors. We empirically illustrate the rule for LS direction in response to joint values of labor-to-capital elasticity of substitution and a combination of the relative factor intensity and the average growth rate of labor-to-capital ratio. The fact that the values of relative labor intensity in the Mining and Energy & Waste management sectors are less than the growth of labor-to-capital ratio provide no grounds for labor share rise. While our reduced-form evidence suggests that broad capital tax relaxations in these two sectors are unlikely to raise LS, this should be read as a hypothesis for future causal work rather than a policy prescription.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.158982

Authors: Marina S. Dolmatova, Tatiana S. Remizova

Abstract: Climate change mitigation increasingly relies on carbon pricing as a core policy tool. This study investigates the applicability of such mechanisms within the Russian context, given the country’s heavy fossil fuel dependence and evolving energy landscape. A mixed-method approach is used, combining case studies (EU ETS, Nordic carbon taxes, Sakhalin pilot) with scenario modeling based on macroeconomic data. The findings suggest that although carbon pricing can drive renewable adoption and emissions reduction, Russia’s centralized governance, regional inequality, and export dependence pose challenges. Key recommendations include phased implementation of carbon taxes and emissions trading, equitable revenue allocation, and integration with existing tax systems. With current limitations including reliance on secondary data and uncertainty in political feasibility, future research should explore public acceptance and institutional readiness. Overall, carbon pricing offers Russia a structured pathway to decarbonization, aligning with global climate goals if carefully adapted to local conditions.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.168943

Authors: Irina V. Kryachko, Henry I. Penikas

Abstract: In April 2025, the United States abruptly announced exceptionally high tariffs on imports from more than 180 countries (levels not seen in nearly 150 years) shocking the global economy. Within a week, most measures were postponed for 90 days (until July 9, 2025), but tariffs on Chinese goods were retained and, immediately prior to implementation, were raised to as high as 145%. China responded by increasing tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%. U.S. equity markets fell by about 10% in the week following the announcement but nearly recovered in May amid speculation that the measures might be withdrawn. By August 2025, headline U.S–China tariff rates converged to roughly 55% and 33%, respectively. Notably, neither country raised duties on Russian imports. Existing assessments (e.g., Yale Budget Lab) focus primarily on the United States. We extend the analysis to Russia and to as many large economies as global input–output tables allow. Using both aggregate and highly disaggregated inter-industry and cross-country linkages within a Leontief framework, we obtain U.S. effects comparable to prior estimates, while the estimated impact on Russian prices and output is negligible. Because substitution and trade rerouting are excluded from the baseline, our results should be interpreted as conservative, lower-bound estimates.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.156897

Authors: Svetlana B. Avdasheva, Islam Z. Geliskhanov

Abstract: Transaction cost economics (TCE) and the theory of governance structures developed by Oliver Williamson have demonstrated significant explanatory power across institutional economics, law and economics, public policy, and strategic management. This review evaluates the predictive potential of TCE in light of profound changes in industry organization and market design, focusing on its relevance to reform processes. We compare two major historical experiences: the liberalization of infrastructure network industries (electricity, gas, rail, and telecommunications) and the privatization of state-owned enterprises in post-socialist economies, with particular attention to Russia. While the reform trajectories differed, both cases reveal the risks of neglecting asset specificity, institutional constraints, and transaction hazards, which are core concepts in TCE. Where reforms evolved through adaptive governance and coordinated institutional development, outcomes were more resilient and efficient. In contrast, rushed transitions lacking governance capacity produced systemic inefficiencies. Drawing from these experiences, we explore emerging challenges in the regulation of digital platforms and ecosystems. We argue that digitalization alters transaction costs, expands strategic interdependencies, and gives rise to hybrid forms of platform governance. These developments underscore the need to reinterpret past lessons for new institutional contexts, particularly in areas such as labor classification, competition policy, and algorithmic regulation.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.145426

Authors: Anna M. Golovanova

Abstract: The paper is devoted to econometric analysis of the impact of Russia–Ukraine conflict, which started in February 2022, on TV advertising strategies of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies. With the help of quantitative methods, the study analyzes changes in TV advertising expenditures of domestic and foreign brands, using Mediascope TV Index daily data from 2021 and 2022 to test the hypothesis of whether this geopolitical shock made advertising costs dwindle or rise. Cross-country-of-origin and cross-product differences are also investigated. It is confirmed that, on average, the shock resulted in a reduction of ad expenditures of FMCG companies with a pronounced effect on domestic brands and brands from “friendly” countries. Thus, the cost-saving arguments seem to outweigh the expected benefits from promotion in the majority of the considered FMCG product markets. The increase in ad spending on isolated product groups (clothing, electronics, personal hygiene items and tobacco and alcoholic beverages) indirectly evidences that the brands faced sharp intensification of competition because of structural changes in the markets under which extra ad spending was found reasonable.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.142169

Authors: Mirzobobo Yormirzoev, Amina Ayombekova

Abstract: This paper explores how the health-related component of human capital affects economic performance in all five Central Asian countries. In particular, it analyzes the impact of life expectancy on overall GDP and output per worker, which characterizes labor productivity. The time frame includes the period from 2000 to 2021. The methodology is based on a standard growth accounting framework. Findings show that better health conditions, as indicated by the increase in life expectancy, have a significant impact on the productivity of a worker. Nonetheless, its contribution to total output growth remains relatively small. In contrast, capital investment plays a crucial role in boosting labor productivity and fostering economic growth, especially in capital intensive countries such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.144107

Authors: Maria S. Lymar, Henry I. Penikas

Abstract: The objective of the current work is to estimate to what extent support measures of the Bank of Russia and the Government of the Russian Federation promoted financial stability of banks and the financial market overall so to sustain lending economy-wide during the crisis periods of 2014, 2020, and 2022. These measures mutually assured the financial stability of the institutions and enabled them to extend lending within the economy for RUB 8 trillion in 2022 (~$100 billion, or 8%+ of the total loan book), of which Bank of Russia measures contributed to RUB 4.3 trillion of the total, the Government of Russia — to RUB 2.0 trillion, while the synergy was RUB 1.7 trillion.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.126000

Authors: Nwabisa Florence Ndzama

Abstract: We find that, while different models used to estimate the output gap in five major emerging economies show similar trends over time, they lead to different conclusions about how well the output gap can predict inflation. This suggests that the choice of model can significantly impact the conclusions drawn about the relationship between the output gap and inflation. The multivariate Hodrick–Prescott filter and the structural vector autoregressive model produce the smallest forecast errors in most cases among the four output gap models considered. We further find some indications of a better inflation forecasting ability of the output gap in countries with inflation targeting, suggesting that the improved transparency related to inflation targeting might support the inflation forecasting process.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.146303

Authors: Heba Helmy

Abstract: We aim to show how any variants of a unified currency among BRICS Plus countries are challengeable, by probing the disparate influence of the positive and negative alterations in the crude oil’s international price on the real effective exchange rates. The paper applies the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach to separate oil price upswings from downswings and assesses how such changes asymmetrically affect the real effective exchange rates of BRICS Plus members in the short and long runs using monthly time series variables from January 2000 until July 2023. Our findings reveal that in the short run, the asymmetric impacts of the positive and negative oil price changes on the real effective exchange rates appear in all BRICS Plus countries. In the long run, Brazil and Argentina confirmed the asymmetric impact of oil price changes on their real effective exchange rates, while the symmetric impact is confirmed in Russia, the United Arab Emirates, and Ethiopia. Our findings prove that a unified currency or a unified monetary union is a very challenging idea, as continuous appreciations or depreciations of the local currencies of BRICS Plus countries will have to be implemented to preserve their alignment with the composite currency unit. Moreover, the asymmetric responses will induce diverse policy recommendations concerning the oil pricing. Our study comes to fill a vital lacuna in the literature as it is the first study to probe the asymmetric association between the oil’s international price and the real effective exchange rate in the BRICS Plus countries.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.145396

Authors: Nataliia Vlasova, Ahmed Alwadeai

Abstract: This study investigates the multifaceted relationship between international sanctions and economic freedom, treating it not simply as an economic construct but as a fundamental pillar of societal well-being. Drawing upon a panel dataset of 21 countries subjected to sanctions between 2002 and 2022, we analyze the impact of sanctions — both economic and non-economic — on overall and component-level economic freedom. Methodologically, we integrate Panel-Corrected Standard Errors, Feasible Generalized Least Squares, and Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling, thereby addressing issues such as heteroskedasticity, autocorrelation, and the complexity of multiple interdependent relationships. Our findings reveal a consistent negative effect of sanctions on economic freedom, although the severity and channels of impact vary according to the nature and source of the sanctions, as well as the institutional and temporal contexts. Notably, sanctions imposed by the United Nations emerge as particularly constraining for property rights and monetary freedom, while trade and financial restrictions curtail investment and market openness. At the same time, sanctioned states demonstrate varying degrees of resilience, adapting policies and seeking alternative markets to mitigate sanctions. These outcomes underline the dual nature of sanctions as powerful tools of international diplomacy that can inadvertently undermine economic freedom. By illuminating these dynamics, our study offers insights for policymakers and scholars alike, emphasizing the importance of tailoring sanctions to limit harm to economic liberties while pursuing legitimate foreign policy objectives.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.145314

Authors: Andrey A. Sinyakov, Tatyana I. Shelovanova

Abstract: The booming retail trade and the above-target consumer prices inflation in 2023–2024 in Russia, amid tightening monetary policy stance, raise an issue of the strength of the monetary policy interest rate channel. The focus of our paper is the interest rate elasticity (given inflation expectations) of a household’s loan request probability. We argue that a household, rather than an individual consumer, is the appropriate unit of study. We use unique data on households’ loan applications obtained from the AllRussian survey of consumer finances, which contains information on more than 6,000 households in Russia. Actual loan applications cover the period of 2020–2022, and the survey also includes information on households’ borrowing intentions as of late spring–summer 2022. The interest rate channel of monetary policy, with regard to unsecured loans, although statistically significant and working in the right direction, does not appear to be economically significant from a microeconomic perspective. This suggests that the Bank of Russia, in relying on this channel for this type of credit, might have to increase the key rate significantly to cool down consumer demand and bring retail inflation to the target. We find that higher households’ inflation expectations positively correlate with the loan demand, thus, households’ inflation expectations do have real effect. Thus, anchoring inflation expectations is important for achieving macroeconomic stability. We empirically identify a set of Russian households’ characteristics that are key drivers of households’ requests for credit. Demographics is an important factor of the demand.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.144303

Authors: Jalal Abu-Alrop

Abstract: This study aims to evaluate the efficiency of Russian banks, identify the factors influencing it based on their size and ownership type, and forecast future trends in the banking sector. The analysis utilized data from 680 Russian banks over the period 2000–2023, employing Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to measure technical efficiency, panel data analysis to determine efficiency-related variables, and Monte Carlo simulation to predict future performance for the years 2024–2026. The findings indicate a general decline in bank efficiency over time, driven by economic and political crises, particularly those linked to oil price fluctuations and sanctions. The study reveals that an increase in client funds (non-credit organizations) and higher leverage ratios are associated with improved bank efficiency. Among bank categories, mega-banks with assets exceeding 1.05 trillion rubles demonstrated the highest efficiency, followed by medium banks, large banks, and small banks, respectively. Moreover, Russian domestic banks exhibited higher efficiency levels compared to their foreign counterparts. The study forecasts continued increases in interest rates in the coming years, driven by the instability of the local currency and rising inflation caused by the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Significant changes in client funds (non-credit organizations) are also anticipated, with a decline expected in 2024, a temporary increase in 2025, and another decline in 2026. These fluctuations reflect instability stemming from corporate performance downturns and capital outflows due to economic sanctions. In addition, the operational efficiency of Russian banks is expected to decline, with an increase in the proportion of distressed banks, especially among small and large banks struggling with rising funding costs. The study concludes that funding sources, associated costs and leverage are the most important factors affecting the efficiency of Russian banks.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.142815

Authors: Chokri Zehri

Abstract: Modernizing and diversifying industries have become essential in recent years, particularly with the shift toward new energy sources to boost the global economy. Despite widespread initiatives, the economic impact of these reforms remains uncertain. This study examines the effects of Saudi Arabia’s renewable energy and industrial innovation efforts on key economic variables, aligning with the UN Sustainable Development Goal 8 (SDG 8), which emphasizes inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment, and decent work for all. Using an ARDL model, we analyze data from 95 firms operating in the renewable energy sector from 2000 to 2023. The findings reveal that renewable energy investments significantly enhance long-term economic growth, trade balance, and FDI inflows, though their impact on employment and foreign assets is weaker. Industrial innovation also promotes growth and trade, but less so than renewable energy, with sales growth driving foreign asset accumulation. In the short term, both sectors have limited effects on employment and foreign assets. However, when combined, renewable energy investments and industrial innovation amplify their positive influence on GDP and trade, underscoring the need for long-term strategies to sustain economic growth.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.11.144072

Authors: Nikolay A. Gorodnyi, Anna A. Fedyunina, Yuri V. Simachev

Abstract: This study investigates the impact of pricing and export diversification on the resilience of Russian manufacturing firms within global value chains (GVCs) during two consecutive shocks: the COVID-19 pandemic and the sanctions of 2022. The research examines how pricing affects firms’ ability to sustain exports in times of crisis and analyzes the role of product and geographic diversification in mitigating disruptions. The findings reveal that market-controlled pricing and export diversification significantly enhance GVC resilience, enabling firms to adapt to disrupted supply chains and shifting market conditions. In contrast, rigid pricing controls, including government interventions, undermine export continuity. Single-product firms demonstrate less resilience to external shocks, highlighting the importance of export diversification in enhancing adaptability within GVCs. This study points out the critical role of flexibility and adaptability in pricing and export diversification for navigating external shocks. It provides useful insights for managers and policymakers, emphasizing the balance between resilience and efficiency in maintaining competitiveness. The results contribute to a broader understanding of GVC resilience, with implications for firms in other emerging economies facing similar challenges.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.125107

Authors: Artur R. Nagapetyan, Tatiana I. Pavlova, Jun Li

Abstract: The issue of equality of opportunity is crucial in contemporary society, often examined in relation to income. Previous research has demonstrated the uncertain effect of income on mortality due to the presence of other factors. To empirically assess the difference in the effect of income on mortality rates between more developed and less developed provinces in China, we modeled mortality rates based on the instrumental variables method and the generalized method of moments. The study results indicate that a 1% increase in income reduces mortality by over 2%. The results confirm the hypothesis that income has a stronger negative impact on mortality in more socially developed provinces of the People’s Republic of China compared to less socially developed areas. This difference is statistically significant at the 1% level and is at least 10%. The obtained results and their development can significantly impact the implementation of effective political governance measures aimed at reducing mortality in certain territories and mortality in general.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.128611

Authors: Anna A. Maigur

Abstract: Predictions of the individual unemployment duration will allow to distribute target support while searching for a job more effectively. The paper uses survival models to predict the unemployment duration based on data from Russian employment centers in 2017–2021. The dataset includes socio-demographic characteristics, such as age, gender, education level, etc., as well as the job search duration. Two models’ forecasts are investigated: the proportional and the non-proportional hazards models. Both models take into account censored data, but only the second one captures nonlinear dependencies and the disproportionate influence of independent variables over time. The forecast quality is estimated with the C-index, equality of which to 1 indicates the most accurate forecast. The highest index value is demonstrated by the non-proportional hazards model (0.64). Moreover, it was found that variable that contributes the most to the prediction quality is region of a job search so that job-search time is heterogeneous among different regional labour markets. To sum up, forecast quality is quite high and stable over time and the implementation of model forecasts by employment centers will increase their efficiency.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.113578

Authors: Inna S. Lola, Dmitry G. Asoskov

Abstract: This study investigates the utility of business uncertainty indicators as predictive tools for forecasting economic activity in the context of Russia. In an era characterized by global economic volatility and geopolitical shifts, understanding the dynamics of economic uncertainty and its impact on overall economic performance is of paramount importance. The study utilizes a comprehensive dataset based on the results of business tendency surveys in Russia, spanning the period from 2009 to the first half of 2024. Given the importance of uncertainty in shaping economic outcomes, the central research question of this study is: can uncertainty indicators predict business activity in Russia or not? To address this question, we compared two alternative approaches to calculating business uncertainty: the ex‑ante approach, which uses the business community’s assessments of future business trends to measure uncertainty as the dispersion of opinions expressed, and the ex‑post approach, which applies entrepreneurial assessments of both future and current trends to determine business uncertainty as the degree of deviation of entrepreneurial expectations from the real picture. National indicators and sectoral indicators were calculated for the mining and quarrying industry, manufacturing industry, construction, retail trade, wholesale trade and services. For most of the industries under consideration (except for the construction and service sector) and at the national level, the specifications of vector autoregression models that were effective for forecasting real indicators of economic activity, characterized by lower forecast errors compared to standard autoregressive models, were built. According to the results obtained, at the national level, when forecasting GDP, clear preference should be given to the ex‑post indicator.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.137491

Authors: Dao Van Le, Tuyen Quang Tran

Abstract: Does government policy intervention enhance citizens’ financial well-being, particularly when considering the increased financial soundness attributed to the private sector? This study empirically addresses this question, using data from more than 200,000 individuals worldwide. To provide causal evidence, we employ a two-stage least squares (2SLS) approach with a high-dimensional fixed-effect estimator, which captures multiple levels of control and addresses endogeneity concerns. Our findings suggest that (i) improvements in financial soundness — proxied by domestic credit development — significantly increase financial satisfaction, whereas (ii) surprisingly, government interventions, whether in the form of policies tightening or loosening, tend to erode this positive effect. This outcome may reflect either (i) ineffective interventions or (ii) the government serving as a scapegoat for a decline in subjective financial well-being. Our findings imply that to optimize public satisfaction, governments should approach interventions in the private sector with caution, thereby strengthening government legitimacy.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.141382

Authors: Oleg V. Buklemishev

Abstract: The article examines historical aspects, general economic logic, and theoretical discussions on the policy of stimulating the economy through increased government appropriations for defense items. It provides a brief overview of empirical studies on economic effects of defense spending in Russia and other countries. The secondary nature and low manageability of economic effects of defense policy are emphasized. The size of the fiscal impulse due to defense items of government expenditure, its positive and negative effects are analyzed in the Russian economy for the period 2022–2024. In addition to the unlikely gains through security and supply channels, the limited availability of free production capacity and labor force are stressed among the factors hindering the positive demand effects of increased defense spending. This gives rise to inflationary consequences, as well as the contradiction between tightening monetary conditions and continuing fiscal stimulation. A conclusion is made about the prevalence and possible aggravation of negative outcomes of sustaining and expanding military outlays.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.125317

Authors: Maribel Aponte-Garcia

Abstract: In response to international sanctions, Russia has restructured its hydrocarbon commerce through trade deflection, redirecting exports from sanctioning to non-sanctioning countries. The research aimed to analyze hydrocarbon trade deflection under the Russia–Ukraine conflict within the context of the China–Russia Strategic Partnership and BRICS, and to assess the restructuring of Russia’s crude oil and natural gas supply chains from 2020 to 2023. Two questions were addressed: Whether trade deflection shifted towards non-sanctioning countries, including China and other BRICS countries; whether Russia’s oil and gas supply chains were restructured towards these regions? Design incorporates the method developed by the author which generates and utilizes an integrated database of Bill of Lading and export data to analyze supply-chain trade restructuring, identifying specific shifts in trade flows by product, country, and enterprises. Findings reflected that after sanctions were imposed in early 2022, Russian hydrocarbon exports to sanctioning countries declined sharply, while exports to non-sanctioning countries, particularly China and India, increased significantly. Findings demonstrate the effectiveness of trade deflection as a strategic response to sanctions. This strategy has mitigated the adverse impacts on Russian oil and gas industry, with significant increases in exports to China and India. The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with China has helped secure a substantial market for Russian crude oil and increased China’s energy security. This study enhances understanding of trade deflection mechanisms and provides a framework for analyzing the interplay between international trade, geopolitical strategies, and economic resilience. Geopolitical alliances and trade partnerships have ensured resilience and continuity in global trade. This shift indicates strategic diversification towards Asian markets and increased Central Asian involvement. BRICS engagement has provided Russia with a platform to advocate for energy security and challenge Western dominance in global energy governance. Future research should explore other supply-chain components and analyze trade within the BRICS+ group and Russia–China bilateral trade.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.121368

Authors: Elena Daniela Sarau

Abstract: This study investigates the role of economic sanctions within contemporary national security strategies, focusing on their impact, motivations, and implications for sender states. Utilizing a mixed-methods approach, the research combines qualitative and quantitative methodologies to comprehensively analyze unilateral and autonomous economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the EC/EU between 1950 and 2019. The comparative and descriptive analysis examines 97 sanctions episodes, including 60 unilateral U.S. sanctions and an original dataset of 37 EC/EU autonomous economic sanctions episodes. The findings reveal that economic sanctions imposed by both entities generally yield positive economic outcomes for sender states. Endogenous motivations such as economic security concerns, geopolitical interests, and domestic political considerations emerge as significant drivers behind the deployment of sanctions. Economic sanctions are perceived as a strategic tool serving political objectives while enhancing economic security of sender states. Tangible benefits, including strengthened negotiating positions and domestic support, underscore the instrumental role of sanctions in advancing sender states’ interests globally. In summary, this research contributes valuable insights into the complex dynamics of economic sanctions and their implications for sender states. The study offers pertinent guidance for policymakers, scholars, and practitioners navigating global security and economic governance challenges by examining economic sanctions’ motivations, impacts, and implications within contemporary national security strategies.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.126926

Authors: Faroque Ahmed

Abstract: Being geopolitically exposed, the Russian financial sector is vulnerable to various uncertainties. The aim of the article is to examine the quantile movements and dynamic connectedness of uncertainty indices with the financial stress index of Russia employing the cross-quantilogram (CQ), recursive cross-quantilogram (R-CQ) and TVP‑VAR dynamic connectedness using monthly data from July 2011 to August 2023. It is found that for Tweeter-based Economic Uncertainty (TEU) and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU), there is strong positive dependence on the Russian Financial Stress Index (RFSI) in the bearish states of market in the initial memory, and the strength of this positive spillover effect gradually wilts towards longer memory structures. Unlike the GEPU, Russian Economic Policy Uncertainty (REPU) has long-lasting heterogeneous spillover effects on RFSI. Though there are significant positive, as well as negative, spillover effects of Global Geopolitical Risk (GGPR) on RFSI in the initial memory, across the longer memory structures these entire heterogeneous effects wash out. However, Russian Geopolitical Risk (RGPR) have long-lasting heterogeneous spillover effects on RFSI, unlike GGPR. GEPU, GGPR and RGPR were the net transmitters while RFSI, TEU and REPU were net receivers of volatility shocks. Since RFSI shows resilience over the long-term horizon to global geopolitics and economic uncertainty, investors are advised to keep patience and hold their capital/investment up to a minimum of 1 year in Russian financial system in order to be rewarded with positive returns.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.128666

Authors: Shweta Sikhwal

Abstract: This paper quantifies the spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the United States on emerging market economies (EMEs). Using a generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation of a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model on a dataset of 39 EMEs from 2005 to 2019, we find that increased U.S. EPU significantly raises the consumer price index (CPI) and negatively impacts the real GDP of these economies. Additionally, heightened U.S. EPU leads to a depreciation of emerging market currencies and a reduction in short-term interest rates. We employ a news-based EPU index developed by Baker et al. (2016) and conduct robustness checks using forward orthogonal transformation, an alternative EPU index, and by addressing the potential endogeneity of the oil price uncertainty (OPU) index. Our findings highlight the adverse effects of U.S. economic policy uncertainty on key macroeconomic variables in emerging markets, underscoring the importance of stable economic policies and robust institutions to mitigate these impacts.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.121967

Authors: Yulia V. Vymyatnina, Aleksandr A. Chernykh

Abstract: In this paper, we study whether the environmental characteristics of assets influence their returns in the case of the Russian bond market. Our main goal for this study was to research this issue for Russia using the same methodology as in studies for developed markets to allow for comparison of results. We use the twin bond methodology and consider expected returns. Our main hypothesis is that brown (i.e., non-green) assets should have a higher yield compared to green ones. Indeed, we find, predictably, that green bonds have a lower yield to maturity. This result is in line with previous results for other markets and suggests that green financing might be cheaper for companies.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.127850

Authors: Maria S. Lymar, Alexander A. Reentovich, Andrey A. Sinyakov

Abstract: We study the situation when a commodity-exporting economy is under sanctions and cannot use its accumulated fx-reserves or attract new fx-debt to smooth import restrictions amid slower decline of income flow from a commodity-export. Our study attempts to determine the adequate response of the economy, depending on assumptions about the possibilities of import substitution within a structural dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated on Russian data. We use a modified version of the Ramsey–Cass–Koopmans’ model to evaluate aggregate and structural changes in the economy in the shorter and longer run. We consider several scenarios with different assumptions about the efficiency of import substitution, which is defined along two dimensions (for consumers as well as for producers). The results show that trade restrictions make import substitution optimal, but only in those sectors where such substitution is relatively more effective. Limited labour resources in the economy are compensated with higher capital intensity of production in the optimistic and neutral scenarios. Reallocation of resources to build up the necessary capital intensity calls for temporarily higher saving rates. As a result, GDP may be higher, but consumption may be lower comparing to the baseline. The results mean that effectiveness of import substitution should be taken into account in decision making on industrial policy. If efficiency of import-substitution is asymmetric and biased to goods for final consumption relative to goods for investments, the structure of imported goods becomes biased to the latter. The results imply higher relative price of consumer goods.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.117650

Authors: Andrey E. Shastitko, Olga A. Markova, Anton N. Morozov

Abstract: Platform pricing may be connected to antitrust risks, which a company can face under excessive or predatory price scrutiny when the platform is recognized as dominant in the market. Since Federal Antitrust Service of Russia (FAS Russia) prefers price-cost comparison when studying excessive or predatory pricing, we suggest using tariff regulation approaches when analyzing platform prices and calculating long-run average incremental costs (LRAIC). By using this approach one can reduce the risks of simultaneously perceiving platform prices for functionally different consumer groups as predatory and excessive. Having identified antitrust risks of platforms changing their prices (both downward and upward), we show that price increase within the inflation rate may be preferable from the point of view of possible antitrust risks and the transaction costs of interactions with the antitrust authority. However, this method of antitrust compliance could potentially conflict with the company’s long-term development goals as a platform.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.118505

Authors: Osama D. Sweidan

Abstract: Recently researchers performed empirical economic studies to investigate how geopolitical risk impacts diverse economic sectors. We take a fresh perspective by exploring whether advancements in the U.S. IT sector can account for fluctuations in China’s geopolitical risk. The conflict between China and the United States regarding semiconductors revolves around technological supremacy, economic dominance, and national security concerns. China has been striving to become self-sufficient in semiconductor production to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers, particularly the United States. However, the United States has imposed restrictions on semiconductor exports to China. Our study constructs a theoretical framework and utilizes the bounds testing approach for cointegration to estimate the parameters of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. We use monthly data from January 1993 to November 2023. The findings reveal that the U.S. IT sector significantly and positively influences China’s geopolitical risk. From a policy implication perspective, the race to lead the global IT sector may emerge as the primary source of economic and political instability unless rival nations reach a compromise.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.124364

Authors: Duc Huu Nguyen, Irina P. Khominich

Abstract: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, along with the imposition of energy sanctions on Russian energy sources, has prompted a reassessment of the global energy market. Utilizing the difference in differences model, this study investigates the financial performance disparities among fossil fuel companies operating within the EU-27 bloc, Russia, and countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Qatar, Norway, India, China, UAE, and Saudi Arabia (countries that have benefitted from exporting fossil energy to the EU-27 as an alternative to Russia) during the period spanning from 2016 to 2023. The result reveals that fossil fuel companies from the United States, the United Kingdom, Qatar, Norway, India, China, UAE, and Saudi Arabia experienced significant advantages from substituting Russia in supplying oil, natural gas, and LNG to the EU-27. This is evidenced by a notable enhancement in their financial performance compared to both Russian and EU-27-based fossil fuel companies. For fossil fuel companies, the study highlights the urgency of diversifying export and import markets, broadening partnerships for fossil fuel trading and refining, transitioning to the production of lower-emission energy forms, and enhancing sustainable development practices to mitigate risks. At the national level, the research results indicate that countries reliant on imported fossil energy, akin to most countries within the EU-27, must swiftly diversify their energy sources and focus on developing renewable energy. This strategy is crucial to avoid unexpected shocks in the energy market in the era of geopolitical conflicts and uncertainty.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.112848

Authors: Igor V. Fokin, Ivan V. Rozmainsky

Abstract: In this paper, we conducted an empirical study to assess the nature of the relationship between financialization and the level of innovation activity in Russian publicly listed companies. We relied on previous research in this area and on the models proposed by the researchers. In the empirical part, we prepared four models, based on the sample including 245 Russian publicly listed companies and having the observation period from 2000 to 2021. We applied Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Pooled Least Square (PLS) models, as well as panel data models with fixed and random effects. According to our hypotheses, financialization has a negative impact on the level of innovation in firms and its impact is varying for firms with different levels of financial constraints. The results of the study have shown that these hypotheses were partially confirmed. We have been convinced of the negative impact of financialization on innovation activity, however, if financial constraints were taken into account, not all coefficients had an unambiguous interpretation. Our assumptions and the results obtained, which generally confirmed the hypotheses put forward, are based on a theoretical understanding of the role of shareholder value orientation in this process. Confirmation of these assumptions is set as the goal of further research.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.107500

Authors: Tosin Ekundayo, Amiya Bhaumik, Justine Chinoperekweyi, Zafarullah Khan

Abstract: In an era where data-driven decision-making is crucial for sustainable development, the role of open data initiatives in shaping potential and strategic outcomes has gained increasing attention. This study investigates the potential impact of National Open Data (NOD) initiatives on human capital development, with specific emphasis on their contribution towards achieving United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3 (SDG3) targets. It explores the relationship between these initiatives and the Human Development Index (HDI) across different countries and regions aiming to ascertain if there is a significant association between open data and human development. The results indicate a strong positive correlation between NOD initiatives and HDI, suggesting that open data can play a crucial role in enhancing human development and meeting SDG3 targets. However, the strength of this relationship varies significantly across regions, with a more pronounced impact observed in Latin America compared to Africa. These findings underscore the potential of open data in propelling human capital development but also highlight the need to contextualize such initiatives based on unique regional dynamics. The study serves as a resource for policymakers in leveraging open data to enhance human development outcomes and progress towards achieving SDGs.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.105745

Authors: Tijani Forgor Alhassan, Eugenia Owusu Ansah, Shakizada U. Niyazbekova, Tatiana K. Blokhina

Abstract: This study outlines the features of financing investment development in Sub-Saharan African countries. Using the financial determinants of GDP, a model was developed based on the method of least squares employing data covering 2004–2018. It was revealed that a positive correlation exists between economic growth and bank loans as well as official development assistance. The results of the model indicate that bank loans and remittances significantly increase economic growth. However, both foreign direct investment and official development assistance (ODA) were found to be ineffective in promoting development, and this is attributable to its investment model (resource-seeking) and the conditions under ODA financing, respectively, in the region. Bank loans were found to be the most influential in promoting sustainable growth in the region. Hence, it is instructive that the reforms are needed and incentives are to be developed to improve the level of the region’s financial and banking sector development and facilitate the sustainable socioeconomic development of these economies.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.115594

Authors: Alexander E. Abramov, Maria I. Chernova

Abstract: Many countries seek to improve their pension systems by introducing corporate and individual savings plans to address the challenges of demography, social security, and economy. However, the establishing of a long-term, reliable savings system encounters multiple impediments. The retrospective analysis of Russian pension reforms offers some recommendations on solving the typical problems faced by reformers. Thus, in 2002 the Russian pension system was implemented by a mandatory savings pillar, which 20 years later the Ministry of Finance substituted by voluntary savings. As this period appeared shorter than the average life span, this measure proved ineffective in increasing pension payouts for future retirees. The frequent regulatory changes and the shrinking workforce coverage as the state prioritized the welfare of the current pension recipients also infringed upon the interests of future retirees. Pension savings investments were further affected by the economic policy aimed at the minimal return requirements which resulted in a more conservative asset allocation strategy and inefficient active management in non-state pension funds. The study demonstrates that policy actions to overcome these impediments and to raise the replacement rates for future retirees should include (a) steady regulations within a pension savings system of no shorter than 40 years; (b) the savings pillar covering no less than 80% of the workforce; and (c) the asset allocation strategy involving a bigger share of equity, longer time horizon and clear benchmarks. These recommendations can be applied to emerging market economies concerned with improving and reforming their pension systems.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.111503

Authors: Nikita D. Fokin, Ekaterina V. Malikova, Andrey V. Polbin

Abstract: This paper aims to analyze changes in the long-term and short-term oil price elasticities of the real ruble exchange rate, as well as the speed of convergence of the exchange rate to a long-term equilibrium. The analysis is conducted using an error correction model with time-varying parameters. The results indicate that the short-term oil price elasticity of the exchange rate has consistently increased after the 2008–2009 crisis, reaching its peak in 2015. This peak coincided with the implementation of an inflation targeting regime by the Bank of Russia, as well as economic crises caused by sanctions and a decline in oil prices. During this period, the short-term elasticity exceeded the long-term elasticity, leading to a significant “overshooting” effect in response to oil shocks. Subsequently, the short-term elasticity gradually decreased as the economic situation stabilized, and by 2022–2023, it became insignificant. This was influenced by such factors as the inaction of financial markets and the implementation of capital controls. On the other hand, the long-term oil price elasticity remained relatively stable throughout most of the observation period, although it decreased during crisis periods.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.10.118769

Authors: Ahmed Alwadeai, Nataliia Vlasova, Hadi Mareeh, Nadeem Aljonaid

Abstract: This study investigates the impact of economic sanctions on exchange rate volatility, with a specific focus on the role of foreign reserves in mitigating these effects across 21 countries from 2002 to 2022. Employing advanced econometric models, including Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) and Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS), our analysis identifies a positive correlation between economic sanctions and increased exchange rate volatility. A significant finding is that high reserves-to-GDP ratios do not fully stabilize exchange rate volatility in the presence of economic sanctions, challenging the traditional view of reserves as reliable stabilizers. It also demonstrates an inverse relationship between heightened reserves-to-GDP ratios and economic growth during periods of sanctions, indicating that larger reserves may reflect economic difficulties rather than strength. These findings implicitly call for a reevaluation of economic policies in favor of adopting strategies that mitigate global economic uncertainties. Supported by previous literature, the importance of international cooperation and governance that foster economic and trade diversification is highlighted. This approach can provide alternative sources of foreign exchange and reduce economic vulnerability to sanctions, enhancing overall economic resilience and stability.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.108719

Authors: Yuheng Li, Haowen Jia, Wei Xiao, Alexey S. Naumov

Abstract: Improving people’s livelihood resilience against risks and challenges plays an important role in consolidating the achievements of poverty reduction. The paper uses 64 poverty-stricken counties in China’s Sichuan province as the study area and explores the link between spatial segregation and human capital. The results show that the proximity (spatial segregation) is significantly and negatively associated with people’s educational attainment and their acquisition of non-farming employment. Residents in villages which are distant from the county center tend to obtain less educational opportunities and are less likely to engage in non-farming jobs than those who are close to the county center. The mediating effect analysis indicates that remoteness mainly reduces the propensity of getting non-farming jobs by reducing the human capital of rural residents. Further analysis shows that the association between proximity, human capital and the probability of acquiring non-farming work is higher in areas with lower economic level and less developed transportation infrastructure. Policy implications for improving people’s livelihood resilience in impoverished areas are proposed in the paper.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.114387

Authors: Renata G. Yanbykh, Valery A. Saraikin, Olga S. Zvyagintseva

Abstract: One of the key elements of well-being of rural residents is the development of rural social infrastructure. Measures for the development of rural areas often do not take into account the opinion of rural residents themselves, which leads to their dissatisfaction. The level of cohesion and collectivism of the rural community plays an important role in identifying problems and finding solutions, including the use of common resources of the territory. This article makes an attempt to apply Elinor Ostrom’s theoretical considerations to the investigation of rural communities in Russia. The experimental part of the study was carried out in small settlements of Stavropol Krai and Krasnodar Krai in South Russia. The hypothesis about the possibility of forming self-governing rural communities, independent in determining the rules for the use of common resources and participating in the implementation of development policies for their territory, was tested. The surveyed residents very rationally selected directions for the social and everyday development of their settlements that allow them to obtain maximum benefit from their implementation. Continuing such research will make it possible to clarify true preferences of rural residents regarding social standards and make timely adjustments to the state policy of rural development.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.112910

Authors: Alexey N. Bobryshev, Andrey N. Baydakov, Olga S. Zvyagintseva, Sergey I. Lugovskoy

Abstract: The article classifies rural territorial entities using the systems approach, which is based on identifying their key subsystems—natural, social, and economic. The study aims to develop and implement a procedure for creating a multi-aspect assessment range of rural development levels relying on the combined use of multivariate statistical analysis and the computational and expert comparison of objective and subjective structured information. The grouping of rural territorial entities carried out on this basis is intended to identify a pattern representing their targeted development, taking into account both the existing social and economic situation in the territory and its perception by the population. Methodological approaches to classify territorial rural units according to their level of rural development usually lack a systemic perspective and a subjective dimension to include the rural inhabitant perspectives. Using only expert opinions does not allow it to be reflected adequately enough. The comparison between the objective and subjective assessments of the natural, social, and economic conditions of rural territorial entities serves as the basis for identifying three groups of development patterns. Results were obtained through the combined application methods—cluster analysis and multidimensional scaling. The first one was used for an objective ranking of municipal districts in the region using official statistical data, while the second method was used for structuring the rural survey results. The main study result is the procedure for the multi-aspect grouping of rural areas, which enables the objective and subjective assessment of their key subsystems—economic, social, and natural—to be integrated into a single assessment tool. Its application helps establish a range of general patterns representing rural development. The study results can be used in the creation and updating of object- and subject-differentiated programs for the development of rural territorial entities.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.112818

Authors: Tatiana G. Nefedova, Andrey I. Treivish

Abstract: This article delves into the proliferation of dacha as a second / temporary country residence for urbanites in Russia. The phenomenon is viewed from a socio-cultural and economic perspective, uncovering the reasons behind their popularity among Russian city dwellers­. These reasons are related to the geographical, historical, and economic features of the nation as well as to the evolution of rural areas and agriculture across various zones. The article analyzes the diversity of second homes, their types, quantities as well as ­preferences and activities of dacha dwellers (dachniks), their socio-economic composition­ and the challenges they face, contingent on the geographic location of these estates and the demand for them among specific urban groups. It is found that the interaction ­between dachniks who come from urban centers, local communities, and rural economies, as well as the distinctive facets of dacha life, vary markedly depending on the natural and socio-economic conditions, which are largely shaped by the remoteness of a place from cities. Special emphasis is put on the distribution and distinctiveness of dachas in the Non-Black Earth zone regions of central Russia, where their prevalence and significance are especially pronounced.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.112008

Authors: Yulia N. Nikulina

Abstract: Contributing to a discussion on rural employment forecast in Russia, this paper sys­tematizes the challenges for the rural labor market: population outflow, weak impulses to develop non-agricultural employment and rural entrepreneurship, changing labor needs in agriculture and a decline in the number of labor migrants. The results of the regional differentiation research show that the response strategies of Russian regions to stabilize employment differ significantly and include active intra-Russian labor migration or reliance on high agricultural state support, development of self-employment and jobs preservation in labor-intensive, low-productivity sectors of agricultural production. The article discusses rural development prospects associated with the return migration of urban residents to rural areas, which creates a new basis for rural employment growth. A theoretical implication of the rural employment perspectives discussion is the proposed concept of “out-of-urban employment” that actualizes the traditional approach of seeking employment only for indigenous rural people who have lost their jobs in agriculture, and includes new types and forms of employment for urban dwellers. Analysis of the current state support for rural employment in Russia shows that it is poorly aligned with the existing challenges. The scale of both financing and the number of potential participants is small; direct support measures are limited to the agricultural sector, while indirect ones — through support for rural infrastructure — create mainly public sector employment. The practical implications of the outcomes are some proposed ways of developing measures to support rural employment, taking into account non-agricultural rural economy needs.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.109490

Authors: Marina S. Petukhova, Evgeny V. Rudoy, Nadezhda V. Orlova

Abstract: This article is the first attempt by the authors to formulate key trends in the field of rural development. The main tool is a bibliometric analysis based on the Scopus database. In 2021, the priority areas of scientific research are rural tourism, environmental problems in rural areas, the creation of engineering infrastructure, sustainable rural communities as well as climate change and its impact on rural areas. In the course of the study, the authors found that the interest in rural development is growing rapidly: tenfold from 2000 to 2021. We proposed to divide the directions of scientific research into two groups: lower and upper levels. Developed countries are focused on leading research areas, less developed — on the lowest. These include problems of rural poverty, infrastructure, rural population outflow and depopulation. The authors also conducted a desk study to identify key trends in rural development. The projection of these trends onto Russian rural areas opens up new windows of opportunity for them. These are the diversification of the rural economy through rural tourism and the development of alternative types of employment, the establishment of eco-settlements, the production of environmentally friendly farm products, and the creation of new rural settlements in areas that will become climatically favorable as a result of the projected climate change.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.116841

Authors: Alexey S. Naumov

Abstract: N.a.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.106825

Authors: Marina A. Kartseva, Anatoly A. Peresetsky

Abstract: This paper studies the impact of sandwich generation caregiving on the health behavior, self-assessed health and life satisfaction of Russian women. It presents evidence that sandwich generation caregiving reduces the likelihood of medical examinations, and regular meals. Alcohol consumption and likelihood of smoking are reduced. The like­lihood of obesity increases, the proportion of chronic diseases decreases, and self-assessed health improves. The proportion of depression decreases. These effects may be the result of an inattentive attitude to one’s health and a consciousness of the social significance of fulfilling one’s duty. These effects vary with socio-demographic characteristics.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.105833

Authors: Mirzat Ullah, Kazi Sohag, Shabeer Khan, Hafiz M. Sohail

Abstract: This study aims to analyze the repercussions of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on the Russian financial market, focusing on the main stock market and sectorial stock indices. High-frequency hourly data from September 12, 2021, to April 29, 2022, covering the period before and after the outbreak of conflict, is utilized for analysis. The empirical investigation employs the TVP-VAR and Quantile-VAR connectedness approaches. Our findings indicate a significant impact of the conflict on the Russian stock market, leading to increased market risk during the event period. Notably, certain sectors, including oil and gas, utilities, metals & mining, financials, consumer goods, and services exerted more influence on other sectors, while chemicals, transport, and telecoms were influenced by other sectors. These insights are crucial for comprehending the financial implications of the ongoing conflict on the local economy, providing valuable guidance to portfolio managers, investors, and policymakers in devising effective financial strategies.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.103780

Authors: Agus Dwi Nugroho, Imade Yoga Prasada, Zoltan Lakner

Abstract: The EU has agreed to sanction Russia by prohibiting bilateral trade, including food imports. This study aims to determine the impact of EU sanctions on EU19 food imports from Russia. The two-stage least squares (TSLS) and propensity score matching (PSM) were used to analyze EU19 food import data from January 1999 to October 2022. According to the findings of this study, the sanctions have no impact on EU19 food imports from Russia. The sanctions were only recently imposed so they have not had a significant impact on bilateral trade between the EU and Russia. On the other hand, EU19 is trying to be realistic about the implementation of sanctions due to their reliance on Russian food. Our findings provide a new perspective for the development of a non-tariff-barrier theory in which sanctions or other trade barriers are ineffective in countries that rely heavily on other countries.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.113503

Authors: Rostislav I. Kapeliushnikov

Abstract: This paper provides a statistical portrait of the Russian labor market during the latest period of 2010–2022. The analysis delves into both the long-term trends in its evolution and short-term fluctuations associated with its adjustment to economic downturns. The most noteworthy among the long-term changes are a gradual shrinkage of the labor force and employment, the transition to record low unemployment, a sharp acceleration in worker turnover, and the emergence of an extensive overhang of unfilled job vacancies. During the period under review, the Russian economy experienced three strong adverse macroeconomic shocks — the first sanctions crisis in 2014–2015, the corona crisis in 2000–2021, and the second sanctions crisis, which began in 2022 and is still far from over. The paper provides the evidence that the Russian labor market has retained the same algorithm for accommodation to economic downturns, which it developed back in the 1990s. A distinctive feature of this specific model is that the negative shocks are absorbed predominantly through declines in wages and reductions in working hours, rather than through contraction of employment and surge in unemployment. The general conclusion is that the Russian labor market is undergoing a transition from a functional regime marked by tight labor demand to another characterized by tight labor supply.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.111967

Authors: Eugene L. Goryunov, Sergey M. Drobyshevsky, Alexey L. Kudrin, Pavel V. Trunin

Abstract: The paper examines the factors of global inflation acceleration in 2021–2022. We consider primarily the developed economies, where rates of inflation over the last two years have exceeded multi-year highs and have significantly exceeded target levels. We find that the cause of accelerating inflation was an imbalance between aggregate demand, which started to increase rapidly in the second half of 2020 as economies began to adapt to the circumstances of the pandemic, and aggregate supply, which encountered persistent constraints associated with interruptions in global supply chains. Significant support for demand was provided by fiscal stimulus that was unprecedented in scale and was accompanied by policy interest rates reaching extremely low levels, and by active injections of liquidity by central banks. The willingness of governments to implement ultra-expansionary monetary and fiscal policies can to a considerable degree be attributed to the fact that during the previous decade large budget deficits, zero interest rates, and programs of quantitative easing had not resulted in macroeconomic destabilization. We examine the view of many central banks that the inflationary wave would not be long-lasting, which was a crucial reason for delaying the interest rates increase. We consider the conditions in which the leading economies might fall into the stagflation trap.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.97733

Authors: Osama D. Sweidan

Abstract: Exploring the nexus between geopolitical risk (GPR) and military expenditures (ME) has been limited during the past period. It is justified by the absence of a well-published proxy for GPR. Recently, the work of Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) stimulated scholars to examine the consequences of GPR. Our paper seeks to understand the relationship between GPR and ME in the United States (US). It designs a theoretical framework and computes an econometric model using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag methodology based on annual data (1960–2021). In addition, it uses the pairwise Toda–Yamamoto causality test. The results show that the relationship between GPR and ME is one of unidirectional causality and runs from ME to GPR in the US. Further, this relationship is statistically significant and positive in the short and long run. This finding supports our hypothesis that the US GPR is a consequence of resource allocation, i.e., ME, and can be controlled, directed, and mitigated. Thus, ME is a tool to achieve the US international hegemony’s strategic goals. From a policy implication perspective, it has been proved that GPR has broad negative consequences for various economies. Thus, moving toward cooperation and coordination with other nations instead of accumulating ME tends to support the international economy.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.101612

Authors: Duc Huu Nguyen, Irina P. Khominich

Abstract: The study presents a Green Economy Index that evaluates the quality of green economies in the BRICS countries based on three pillars: environment, economic performance, and quality of green living. Research findings suggest that the BRICS nations are gradually shifting their focus from mere economic growth to encompassing environmental, social welfare, and equality concerns. Russia showcased the best balance among these three pillars from 2011 to 2020, while India and China made notable strides. Nevertheless, Brazil and South Africa face obstacles in improving their economies and increasing social welfare. The indicators highlight specific challenges each country must address, including high unemployment in Brazil and South Africa, low energy intensity in Russia and China, and air pollution and low Human Development Index in India, alongside shared issues like low government transparency. Based on the research significant findings, the study attempts to address whether the BRICS nations should prioritize financing environmental protection, economic growth, or social goals to maintain a balance among all the three pillars and achieve their green economy objectives.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.98252

Authors: Dani Rahman Hakim, Eeng Ahman, Kusnendi Kusnendi

Abstract: This study performed a meta-regression analysis (MRA) to reexamine the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the host countries’ employment. We detected a publication bias and heterogeneity between studies by employing 61 publications with 477 estimates as the dataset. Studies that do not control for endogeneity suffer an upward publication bias. In contrast, we found a downward publication bias in the studies that control endogeneity. After correcting that bias, we found a small positive effect of FDI on the host countries’ employment as the genuine effect. By using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) analysis, we found six moderator variables that could explain heterogeneity. These moderator variables are related to the FDI and employment measurement type, data characteristics, FDIreceiving countries, and estimation methods.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.104661

Authors: Igor M. Drapkin, Anna A. Fedyunina, Yuri V. Simachev

Abstract: The economic sanctions imposed by the United States, Europe, and other countries since 2014 have heightened the unpredictability and turbulence in the business environment for Russian firms, necessitating exploration of new international partners and transformation of economic relationships. This paper aims to examine the redirection of Russian outward foreign­ direct investment (OFDI) in the context of these economic sanctions, particularly those intensified since 2022. The analysis employs an estimated econometric model to compare actual and potential levels of OFDI, utilizing a comprehensive database covering 74 origin and 102 destination countries from 2010 to 2019. The estimation technique employs Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood approaches. The findings indicate that Russian firms demonstrated underinvestment in most regions, except for Northern and Western Europe, during the examined period. The 2014 sanctions resulted in a significant decline in Russian OFDI to the countries imposing sanctions, while there was an increase in OFDI to Asia, the Middle East, and the CIS countries. As anticipated, the 2022 sanctions exerted additional pressure on Russian OFDI, leading to a further shift of their outflows towards Asia and the Middle East, which, however, could not compensate for the sharp decline in OFDI to the EU countries and North America. The results highlight the existence of untapped OFDI potential for Russia in African and Latin American countries as well as in the Middle East. These regions emerge as desirable partners for bilateral economic liberalization. From a policy perspective, the findings emphasize the importance for the Russian Federation to pursue deep trade agreements that encompass investment preferences, public procurement, and the protection of intellectual property rights with regions harboring untapped potential for OFDI. Additionally, expanding government support for domestic firms venturing abroad is crucial to sustain and enhance integration into the global economy, especially in the face of sanctions.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.105790

Authors: Elizaveta V. Martyanova, Andrey V. Polbin

Abstract: This paper proposes a general equilibrium model with the entrepreneurial sector for the Russian economy. The novelty of the model lies in several points. First, the model is a small open economy. Second, it includes the entrepreneurial sector. Third, the model reflects the main features of the Russian economy. Five experiments were conducted, for which steady states and transitions were computed. These experiments included: (1) an export price shock, (2) redistribution of government consumption between the corporate and entrepreneurial sectors, (3) relaxation of collateral requirements, (4) a credit rate subsidy for entrepreneurs, (5) VAT for entrepreneurs. The export price shock results in lower entrepreneurial output due to higher wages in the short run, but in the long run the positive effects of increased demand and assets lead to higher output. Increased government consumption of entrepreneurial goods leads to a reallocation of resources from the corporate sector to the entrepreneurial one. The relaxation of collateral requirements leads to a sharp increase in entrepreneurial investment and capital and a decline in the number of entrepreneurs, which means that they become bigger. The credit rate subsidy leads to an increase in capital in the entrepreneurial sector, and then in output. The cost of subsidies leads to a decrease in lump-sum transfers, but this does not lead to a significant change in household consumption. The introduction of a value-added tax on entrepreneurial goods leads to a redistribution of resources from the entrepreneurial sector to the corporate one, lower household consumption and higher GDP.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.83891

Authors: Henry I. Penikas, Ekaterina E. Vasilyeva

Abstract: The Basel Committee recommended the use of input-output tables to properly measure climate risks. However, the majority of previous studies only limits the use of input-output tables to carbon emissions and this is not applied in climate risk ratings. The existing climate (E) risk ratings (scores) was modified or transformed from Sustainalytics to the full climate risk scores using input-output tables. Positive relationship between credit risks and the full climate risk estimates at the industry level was identified, and this justifies the interest rate discount granted to firms in the green industries. Thus, for the purpose of lending the full degree of greenness derived from input-output tables should be considered, not substituting this by the easily observable and publicly available marginal climate risk ratings like those provided by Sustainalytics.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.94459

Authors: Sofia M. Rebrey

Abstract: This research measures gender inequality in Russia in axial institutions: household and labor markets, education and science, state and corporate governance and relates it to agency, measured on the World Values Survey. Russian women are actively engaged in labor markets, including healthcare, science and other fields, which are widely viewed as male, as a legacy of the Soviet era. The gender income and the wage gap stem from the double burden and “maternity fee.” Demographic policy reinforces women’s role as prime caregivers, multiplies “maternity fee” and increases gender inequality, which consequently lowers the birth rate. Women are highly educated; however, education does not necessarily serve women’s career and success due to patriarchal values in the hidden curriculum. Many women are engaged in science, accounting for 43% of scientific workers, particularly in humanitarian sciences. However, the main reason is low wages. And ­science still functions within patriarchal traditions, while gender and women studies remain heterodox and have low impact on mainstream academic discussion. Governance remains a male field, while women account for deputies, and mostly languish in administrative­ jobs and are only entrusted with decision-making capabilities both in state and corporate governance.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.81283

Authors: Carlos M. Jardon, Xavier Martinez Cobas

Abstract: Emerging economies have specific characteristics that condition the use of intellectual capital. The economic crisis has had important consequences for emerging countries. The investments in intellectual capital could slow down this influence. This paper uses a new model for assessing the effects of an investment in intellectual capital on the performance of Russian companies in a period of crisis. The model is applied in Russian companies with data from 1,096 companies for the period 2004–2014 and 12,056 observations were made. The panel data included only active companies (from January 2004) listed with annual reports and were obtained from Bureau Van Dijk’s Ruslana database. Each company’s data cover at least seven years. The study used hierarchical linear models to unravel the effect of intellectual capital on value-added. The results show that investments in structural capital and relational capital have a direct effect on the stock of intellectual capital and generates value. The results show that investments in structural capital and relational capital have a direct effect on the stock of intellectual capital and generates value.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.97916

Authors: Yigitali Zokirov, Daichi Yamada, Masato Hiwatari

Abstract: This study examines the relationship between competition and innovation of Russian firms. We mainly explore (i) the role of competition in stimulating or suppressing product and process innovation and (ii) if the relationship is affected by institutional conditions, such as court fairness, corruption, and informal competition. The results show that innovation, particularly process innovation, has an inverted U-shaped relationship with competition but that product innovation is negatively associated with competition. Further, the negative relationship with product innovation is observed only among firms confronting problems in institutional conditions. The results imply that, whereas the promotion of competition can both encourage and discourage innovation, depending on the initial competition level, an improvement in institutional conditions can mitigate the negative effect of competition on innovation.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.9.104761

Authors: Marek Dabrowski

Abstract: The post-communist transition in the former Soviet Union (FSU) cannot be considered entirely successful, especially in the political and institutional spheres. Nevertheless, in the economic sphere, the transition process succeeded in rebuilding the foundations of market economies based on private ownership by the early 2000s, even if the adopted­ policies and institutions have proved suboptimal and distortive in many countries. The transition experience in the FSU region has demonstrated a correlation between political and economic reforms, with a strong impact of the former on the latter. The deficit of democracy, civil freedoms and the rule of law has negatively impacted the course of the economic transition, causing significant delay, distortions and partial reversals.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.90850

Authors: Ekaterina A. Galaktionova, Nataliya A. Karlova

Abstract: It is often taken for granted that food loss and waste (FLW) reduction leads to better food security on the local, national and global levels. However, in reality, relations between food security and FLW are not direct, and reduction of food losses and even the increase of food availability do not automatically mean the rise in affordability and access for the most vulnerable people. In this paper, the authors explore food losses on the example­ of grain primary production and chicken meat processing in Russia. They identify the causes of food losses in each case and provide a number of possible solutions for food loss reduction. However, it is also highlighted and explained in the paper why not every measure to reduce food loss will result in better food security overall and the increase of well-being for the most vulnerable population.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.81343

Authors: Tatiana V. Kossova, Elena V. Kossova, Maria A. Sheluntcova

Abstract: This article analyzes the relationship between individual decisions to smoke and to do physical exercises. It is assumed that individual time preferences play a major role in explaining individual health behavior. The database is the special survey of Russians’ lifestyle conducted in 2017. A multivariate probit model with endogenous binary variable enables to analyze the relationship between smoking, doing physical exercises, and individual time preferences. Individual time preferences are determined through a hypo­thetical money experiment. An individual discount rate is used as a proxy for the rate of time preferences. We reveal that there is a negative relationship between smoking and doing physical exercises because of unobservable factors. It might be an individual inclination to follow a healthy or unhealthy lifestyle. There is a negative influence of the higher individual discount rate on doing physical exercises and a positive in­fluence of the higher individual discount rate on smoking. Social policy should accentuate the short-term benefits from smoking cessation and regular physical exercises rather than probable future health improvements. For target groups with the higher individual discount rate, highlighting the short-term negative consequences of avoiding healthy behaviors will be more effective than drawing attention to future health risks.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.81710

Authors: Elena A. Nazarbaeva, Alina I. Pishnyak, Natalia V. Khalina

Abstract: This article focuses on Multidimensional poverty index (MPI)—the alternative approach to poverty measurement. While the official monetary approach is based on a comparison of income with a certain poverty line (until 2021 in Russia it was based on the minimum subsistence level, since 2021 it has been calculated as a share of median income of the population), the MPI also includes deprivations that poor people may face. The text contains the description of the index calculation methodology, the results of its computation on Russian data (Statistical Survey of Income and Participation in Social Programs-2017), and the description of vulnerable groups of population in accordance with the MPI. Population groups that are identified as being at risk of poverty (according to the index) are similar to the vulnerable population based on the absolute monetary poverty approach. However, the index widens the list of such groups, covering older people and people with disabilities.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.84097

Authors: Han-Sol Lee, Alexander M. Zobov, Ekaterina A. Degtereva

Abstract: Employing an intercountry trade force (ITF) theory, this paper investigates bilate­ral trade between South Korea and 28 economies of Central Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) based on balanced panel data for the period from 2011 to 2019. Free trade space (FTS) and gravity index (GI) turned out statistically significant and their coefficient signs are in line with the research hypothesis. Our model also confirms that bilateral trade volumes­ are highly enhanced by the quality institutions of CEE and CIS countries. The impact of their good governance becomes larger in relation to South Korea’s exports to those count­ries. A level of market openness (measured by FDI ratio and WTO membership) does not facilitate bilateral trade volumes, in general. However, WTO membership turns out to be a significant and positive factor in promoting CEE and CIS countries’ exports to South Korea. Therefore South Korea must strive to enhance the institutional quality of CEE and CIS countries to ease the process of customs clearance and the conclusion and enforcement of trade contracts, and reduce transaction costs. Liberalizing economies based on internationally acknowledged economic principles will continue to enhance CEE and CIS countries’ exports to South Korea.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.98242

Authors: Evgeny Y. Vinokurov, Marina V. Grichik, Taras V. Tsukarev

Abstract: The ongoing international reserve paradigm based on trust will experience a major transformation despite being convenient, flexible and low-cost. The underlying issue is a loss of trust. Due to the massive financial sanctions imposed on Russia and other states, traditional reserve currencies have lost their footing, compromising confidence in international reserves. Consequently, countries will need a comprehensive revision of their reserve asset management options. This paper overviews these options, which range from trade-offs to non-orthodox solutions. In total, we list twelve options, which can be categorized into three groups according to their novelty and “degree of orthodoxy­.” The first group implies countries can expand the use of available instruments, i.e., investments in gold, renminbi, and currencies of friendly countries, and enlarge the network of swap lines and the toolbox of sovereign wealth funds. In the second group, options call for the introduction of new mechanisms for international reserves functions, such as accumulating physical resources and private cryptocurrencies­, issuing stablecoins by central banks, and building up assets of regional financing arrangements. The third group includes options to shift the energy standard (currency) paradigm and establish a synthetic international currency or form a macroeconomic paradigm with no international reserves. Furthermore, applying our analysis, we move beyond Russia and look at the issue from the perspective of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization members and observers, as it is a leading platform where countries openly discuss this matter.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.72689

Authors: Irina E. Kalabikhina, Sofia M. Rebrey

Abstract: This research aims to identify major fields and structures of economics of gender research based on bibliometric analysis between 1960 and 2020. The analysis of the journals in economics of gender captures major development stages of gender economics. The study of economics of gender is growing rapidly as seen in the increasing number of journals, articles and citations from the 1970s onwards. It grew faster than the pace of economic publications during the 1980–1990s. The economics of gender research disciplines largely replicates economics and can be viewed as part of economics of inequality. But its feminist philosophy and methodology distinguish the economics of gender as a separate branch of economic sciences which furnishes new findings. According to the Scimago and Web of Science databases, more than 90% of articles in economics of gender are published in English (fewer than in the field of economics in general). The structure of the analyzed countries reflects not only the sophistication of national research in economics of gender, but also the degree of their integration into international scientific discourse, including the presence of a language barrier. Gender economists are primarily focused on the problems of developing countries. Advanced economies account for less than a third of all publications.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.79738

Authors: Thuy Ngoc Nguyen, Tuyen Quang Tran, Huong Van Vu

Abstract: Vietnam is a country that found itself at the center of the Indochina wars and was subjected to the most intense aerial bombing in history. However, little research has been done on the effect of unexploded ordnance (UXO) contamination on household livelihoods in rural Vietnam. In this paper, we investigate the contaminating effect of unexploded ordnance on households. Livelihood choices are classified by cluster analysis techniques, and unexploded ordnance contamination is measured at the district level by the proportion of land at risk from unexploded bombs and mines. We examine the effect of UXO contamination on livelihood choices using a multinomial logit model, controlling for various important household and regional level characteristics. It was found that households in districts with greater contamination were less likely to adopt a formal wage-earning livelihood, characterized by higher income and less poverty, than they were to engage in an agricultural livelihood. This suggests that the Indochina wars have had a long-running effect, reducing the likelihood of non-farm diversification, which in turn diminishes economic well-being among rural households in Vietnam.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.82144

Authors: Andrey E. Shastitko, Olga A. Markova, Anton N. Morozov

Abstract: Could identical goods sold by the same company on the same territory and at the same time be attributed to different product markets? In our paper we take a closer look at the case of the wrought-steel wheel industry, which became the subject of an antitrust investigation initiated by the FAS Russia in 2020. During a shortage, one of the largest wrought-steel wheel producers sold small batches of wheels to minor buyers at relatively high prices compared to the industry average. FAS Russia assumed this price difference to be evidence for abuse of market power. In contrast to FAS Russia’s conclusions, we suggest that wrought-steel wheels sold to major and minor buyers constitute at least two separate markets. To test this hypothesis, we define a relevant product market employing a price correlation analysis. To conduct robustness check we also provide a stationarity test on the log price ratio and a cointegration test which fall within the results of correlation analysis. As consumers actually did engage in side transactions, the revealed price difference is not related to price discrimination. We explain this price difference using the new institutional economics, assuming that goods sold to a large buyer do possess special transaction characteristics which do not meet the characteristics of the batches consumed by minor buyers. Another explanation is differences in bargaining power between large and minor buyers. Our result shows that there can be identified at least two wrought-steel wheel product markets: one with Russian Railways as the main buyer and the second one with smaller undertakings.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.89717

Authors: Shweta Sikhwal

Abstract: We examine, using a monthly dataset from 2007 to 2020, the US interest rate shocks’ effects on exchange rates, broad money aggregates, and foreign exchange reserves in emerging market economies (EMEs) post global financial crisis. To evaluate the impact of unconventional monetary policy initiatives, we employ Wu-Xia’s shadow interest rates. There are two parts to the methodology. The first part focuses on the identification of the unanticipated US interest rate shock in a SVAR model. In the second part, we incorporate the US interest rate shock into the panel structural VAR to analyze its impact on 29 countries from various regions. A positive shock to US interest rates depreciates the exchange rate of EMEs against the US dollar. According to our findings, it results in a decline in the broad money aggregate and foreign exchange reserves. The findings are consistent across multiple EME regions.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.95949

Authors: Leonid M. Grigoryev, Ekaterina A. Kheifets

Abstract: In 2020 the energy transition path was distorted by the COVID-19 pandemic which caused a sharp economic decline and a fast global recovery in 2021. Unlike that period, the years between 2001 and 2019 illustrated a different type of energy evolution for developed and developing countries regarding primary energy consumption. During this period the composition of energy balances of these two major groups demonstrated dramatic disparity, notably marked by the high share of coal in developing countries. The shock of 2020 led to a belief in expediting the transition to green energy, but in 2021 the economic recovery revived demand for oil and coal, dashing hopes for the growing renewable energy sources sector in the European Union that year. The return of coal, however, to the EU energy sector and stable demand for motor fuel globally led to the restoration of the GHG emission growth against the backdrop of the climate policy implementation failure. The current energy transition is denoted by features such as the flat oil demand in developed countries, the flat global demand for motor gasoline and the growing demand for diesel. The econometrics of demand for two motor oil products are quite opposite. For gasoline we have almost all hypotheses met: the negative influence of climate policy and oil prices, strong effect of dummies for shock of 2020 and 2021, and naturally 0.3 coefficient at GDP growth rate. Nevertheless, for diesel everything is exactly the opposite — only 0,4 coefficient at GDP and practically nothing else. This effect shows the strong role and trend for cargo use of diesel fueled trucks in the global economy. The high income of oil and gas majors in 2021 did not secure the investment upturn. A mature oil industry receives substantial profits for its investors, supplying dividends, and buying back debts without enlarging production capacities. At this point climate policy expectations of phasing out fossil fuels in the foreseeable future operated as a braking mechanism against reinvesting oil incomes. Moreover, at this junction we can observe governments’ limited capacity to pursue policies toward multiple objectives simultaneously: modest energy prices, energy transition and securing the sufficient capital formation for energy. The continued fusion of the economic upturn and energy transition will be dependent on demand and supply matching in the oil markets. It is also possible that the sanctions policies of 2022 may aggravate the situation, triggering high prices and uncertainties.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.78026

Authors: Javad Keypour

Abstract: The security of gas supply is one of the main concerns for the European Union (EU), especially when considering the EU’s dependence on Russian gas. The idea of importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States has recently emerged as an alternative to reduce EU dependency on Russia. However, the idea still needs to be evaluated­, especially the extent to which it is beneficial or practicable for EU gas security. Composing as it does an appropriate indicator, namely the risks to the EU gas supply, this current research attempts to evaluate the idea of substitution. The composed touchstone comprises critical elements, including political risks for gas supply and transit, the importance of natural gas imports in the gross domestic product, and fungibility of the import. This indicator has then been applied to six selected member states. The results of our analysis indicate that importing gas from the United States improves supply security in five cases. Nevertheless, the benefits of substitution should be evaluated­ considering the limitations of available infrastructures and the economic factors. This could suggest that importing the U.S. LNG can be a feasible policy for Poland and the Baltic States, however, not necessarily for Germany, Italy and, especially, France. Therefore, replacing Russian gas with the U.S. LNG entails some prerequisites before being considered a beneficial alternative for EU gas security.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.80358

Authors: Alexander S. Bulatov

Abstract: This paper studies the participation of Russian multinational enterprises (MNEs) in the flight of capital from the native country. It estimates the mid-annual size of capital flight from Russia in 2015–2020 via channels of its MNEs at 0.8% of GDP. Theoretically and methodologically, this paper concentrates on two groups of motives and prerequisites for this flight — generated by tax-avoidance motives and domestic economic imperfections which lead to tax evasion­ and the institutional escape of national capital. Macro and micro analysis based on the balance of payments and company cases confirms that Russian MNEs are actively participating in capital flight from the country.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.90948

Authors: Simon Commander, Ruta Prieskienyte

Abstract: Can autocracies and their associated institutions successfully implement economic policies that promote growth and investment? Can “good economics” somehow offset the effects of “bad” politics? Kazakhstan is a case where an autocratic regime has actively projected market-friendly policies and attracted significant amounts of incoming investment. These policies are to some extent reflected in the country’s governance ratings, although there has been a significant amount of investment disputes that question the attachment to the rule of law. Moreover, the political regime has remained strongly personalized around the founder President, his family and associates. This is reflected in the economics­ of the autocracy whereby a large public sector and a set of privately held businesses coexist to mutual benefit. The latter have been formed around a very small number of highly connected individuals whose initial accumulation of assets allows them also to act as necessary gatekeepers for entrants. Competition as a result remains limited in both economic and political domains. Yet, uncertainties over the future leadership, along with latent rivalry over access to resources and markets, make the political equilibrium quite fragile, as the events of January 2022 have underlined. In short, “bad” politics both squeezes the space for, and distorts the benefits from, “good” economics. At the same time, the limits of “good” economics are reflected in the extraordinary concentrations of ownership, control and wealth that have occurred.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.90947

Authors: Marek Dabrowski

Abstract: The paper contains a retrospective analysis of macroeconomic policy and reforms in the countries of the former Soviet Union (FSU) from 1992 to 2021, after obtaining political and economic independence in 1991. Special attention is given to problems of macroeconomic stabilization and economic growth. As a result of structural distortions inherited from the Soviet economy and the slow pace of economic and institutional reforms, the FSU countries suffered from a long and deep output decline in the 1990s. Their post-transition growth recovery in the 2000s did not last long. Furthermore, they remain vulnerable to both domestic and external economic shocks. Given the limited predictability of post-COVID global economic trends and the damaging consequences of the war in Ukraine, this vulnerability will likely continue in the next couple of years.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.86617

Authors: Evgeny Y. Vinokurov, Arman Ahunbaev, Alexander I. Zaboev

Abstract: The Russian economy will have to adjust its logistics to face the new reality. The operationali­zation of the multimodal International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is an important strategic part of it. This “pivot to the South” by Russia and other Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries is of particular significance in light of the required reconfiguration of supply chains in Eurasia. Russian exporters, importers and freight forwarding companies’ needs in alternative logistical opportunities have increased dramatically. The INSTC development would promote Eurasian intra- and transcontinental connectivity, reduce export costs, develop new production niches, and realize the Caspian region’s transit potential. This study estimates that the aggregate potential INSTC freight traffic via all the routes and modes of transport, including containerized and non-containerized cargoes, will reach 15–25 million­ tonnes by 2030. The container traffic could rise 20x and this will require investments in hard infrastructure and also soft infrastructure improvement. The corridor will contribute to the evolving outline of the trans-Eurasian transport backbone and bring significant benefits for the economies of Russia, Central Asia, the Caucasus, Middle East, and South Asia.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.78613

Authors: Ekaterina A. Galaktionova, Melanie Kok, Hilke Bos-Brouwers

Abstract: In 2015, all 193 UN member countries agreed to halve global food loss and waste by the year 2030. At national level, the first step is usually to measure the extent of the problem and set targets. Countries that initiate the inventory of their national food loss and waste (FLW), frequently find out that first, the amount of FLW is bigger than was initially anticipated, and second, that there are massive data gaps, including quality, granularity, representativeness, collaboration and prioritization etc. Russia is no exception. In this article, we will make an overview of what is already happening in Russia regarding the FLW issue and what can be learned from international examples—mainly, the Netherlands. Despite many existing methodologies and practices being limited in their scope, reach, accuracy etc., it is more important to select what is appropriate and/or feasible now than wait for an invention of a perfect quantification methodology in an unforeseeable future.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.78331

Authors: Anton S. Strokov, Vladimir Y. Potashnikov

Abstract: The paper analyses the current ecological consequences of agricultural growth in Russia’s main regions (oblast level) during 2011–2019. Our main hypothesis was that local environ­mental risks, like waste concentration, would be closely related to global climate risks such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the production of crops, meat, milk, eggs, and from land use change (LUC) activities leading to a larger carbon footprint. We first analyze official data for agricultural waste and find that 30% of it is concentrated in just two regions (Belgorod and Kursk), while they produce only 10% of agricultural value of Russia. Next, we find that manure nutrients have a high concentration in regions where the livestock production is not balanced with appropriate nutrient use on croplands (Dagestan, Astrakhan, Leningrad, and Pskov regions) which might lead to the pollution of soils and local waters. Next, we test the GLOBIOM partial equilibrium model to evaluate proper agricultural protein production quantities in Russian regions and respective GHG emissions from crop, livestock and land use change activities. We find that 21% of the GHG emission in 2019 came from the conversion of former abandoned agricultural land into cropland (starting from 2011). While some regions such as Krasnodar, Rostov, and Stavropol increase productivity with low carbon footprint, others, like Amur and Bryansk, increase production by cropland expansion without respective productivity growth which leads to higher carbon footprint. Our results for livestock operations show that the main hypothesis did not hold up because regions which increase meat production, like Belgorod, Kursk, Pskov, and Leningrad, have a lower carbon footprint due to the production of pork meat and poultry which have lower GHG emissions due to specific digestion. On the other hand, these regions experience a higher environmental footprint due to the large concentration of waste which could be harmful for local eco­systems. Finally, we use the model to project possible future development up to 2030. Our results show the possible growth of crop and livestock products in most of the regions driven by external demand for food. The extensive scenario shows additional GHG emissions from cropland expansion, while the intensive scenario reveals a larger growth rate accompanied by productivity growth and lower carbon footprint, which is essential in harmonizing the current agricultural and climate policy of Russia.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.78314

Authors: Marina S. Petukhova

Abstract: The innovative development of the grain sector develops in a wave-like manner, with alternating periods of growth and decline in the yield indicator. The innovation activity of agricultural organizations is currently increasing. The analysis shows the industry’s transition to a new technological stage. The priority directions of scientific and technological development are the technologies of grain yield increase, such as biotechnologies of effective accelerated breeding and intensive technologies in seed production; precision farming; biological and organic farming, as well as advanced technologies’ phytomelioration.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.78430

Authors: Nadezhda V. Orlova, Dmitry V. Nikolaev

Abstract: For the last 10–15 years, Russia has become the key player in the world agricultural market. Increasing export volume up to $45 billion by 2025 is the ambitious plan of the Russian Government. Windows of opportunity that create fundamentally new prospects for increasing competitiveness are opened mainly during the period of changing technological patterns, such as the current transition of the world’s agriculture towards Agriculture 4.0 paradigm. This is crucial for further economic growth. Information for this article was prepared based on “desk research” methods and then all data and hypotheses obtained were tested by conducting detailed in-depth interviews with key industry decision makers. According to the results of research there has been a huge interest on the part of business to implement innovative solutions in agriculture. Yet significant institutional constraints, problems in the legislative and regulatory sectors, the absence of a system of transfer or commercialization of technology from research center to the final manufacturer are still present. At the same time, all the instruments of state support are currently configured only for conventional, as opposed to innovative agriculture.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.80597

Authors: Margaret M. Zeigler, Ann Steensland

Abstract: Agriculture and food systems must provide nutrition and agricultural products for nearly 10 billion people by 2050. Agriculture is a powerful economic driver, and by prioritizing agricultural productivity and innovation, food systems can become more resilient and improve the wider economy while generating employment. Yet, powerful solutions and approaches are needed that must move beyond “low-hanging fruit” when investing in low-income country agriculture systems. As part of the solution, we discuss innovations such as participatory research models from the International Potato Center (CIP) as well as how to unlock and harness existing plant genetics through the phytobiome.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.78376

Authors: Alisher Mirzabaev, Joachim von Braun

Abstract: Achievement of Sustainable Development Goals critically depends on well-functioning food systems which can provide sufficient and healthy food for all in an environmentally sustainable, economically viable and socially equitable manner. However, current food systems are failing on all of these dimensions. In fact, food systems are generating substantial amounts of environmental, health-related, social, and economic externalities negatively affecting the well-being of present and future generations of people, particularly that of the poorest and most vulnerable. True cost accounting approaches, a research frontier in sustainability sciences, seek to comprehensively measure these so far unaccounted externalities from food systems to propose solutions for addressing their negative social welfare effects. Contributing to discussions on true costs of food, this paper traces the environmental costs of ecosystems degradation due to cropland expansion during the period of 2001 to 2009 at the global level. The results show that cropland expansion caused by growing food demands has led to the degradation of 511 million hectares of higher value forest, woodland, shrubland and grassland ecosystems globally, with the total economic costs equaling 435 billion U.S. dollars. This means that each year the global community is incurring 54 billion U.S. dollars of externality costs from food systems because of cropland expansion alone. Addressing this problem requires a flexible government regulation combining incentive mechanisms such as payments for ecosystem services and carbon pricing, with legislative deterrents, e. g., environmentally friendly cadastral planning, fines, and taxes. Current research on true cost accounting is primarily focused on identifying the extent of externalities from food systems. However, knowledge does not always automatically translate into action. The key impetus for future actions for true pricing of food would come from closing knowledge gaps on transaction costs for the implementation of true pricing and the development of innovative solutions for reducing them.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.8.84133

Authors: Eugenia V. Serova

Abstract: n/a

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.7.76219

Authors: Evguenii A. Zazdravnykh, Andrey V. Aistov, Ekaterina A. Aleksandrova

Abstract: In this study we estimate the income elasticity of spending on different healthcare services and medication in Russia, taking into account the non-linear relationship between income level and expenditure. We employ the RLMS-HSE data, 2006–2017, to estimate the elasticities at household level. Our findings show these elasticities have not changed over the years. Additionally, we show that low-income and high-income households demon­strate different levels of elasticities, which is consistent with the fact that healthcare is less affordable for the poor. The study confirms that healthcare and medication are close to luxury level for low-income households and drugs are almost income inelastic for rich households. The results could help to reveal which services are the least affordable for the population.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.7.72368

Authors: Aizhan Bolatbayeva

Abstract: This paper introduces a multicountry macroeconometric model for the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The model consists of five single-country models of the union member states: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia. The purpose of the research is to explain the structural relationship between the economies, evaluate the impact of internal and external shocks, and analyze the transmission mechanism of shocks across countries. The single-country models are linked to each other by the equations of bilateral trade and bilateral exchange rate. We find that the model fits actual data on main macroeconomic indicators of the countries in a dynamic ex-post simulation over 2004–2018. We also evaluate the effect of world trade and monetary policy shocks on the economies of the EAEU member states.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.7.75423

Authors: Ivan L. Lyubimov

Abstract: Economic complexity theory deepens our understanding of export diversification. However, it relies on aggregated data which might disguise important details. In particular, these data do not take information on importers into account even though this information can provide new insights about the pace of economic complexity evolution in a particular economy. The paper introduces these new insights by incorporating more detailed export data into analysis. I find that wealthier economies not only tend to export more sophisticated products, but also sell them to richer destinations. I discuss the case of Russia which seeks to become a more complex economy and gain technological ­sovereignty by implementing reindustrialization policy. However, Russian complex products rarely conquer richer markets and are better known to Russia’s geographic neighbors. Our findings suggest that such a pattern of reindustrialization might not be promising as long as a higher level of wealth is a concern. The paper claims that even though redesigning industrial policy such that it becomes more conditioned on export outcomes is not a solution to the problem, it is, however, one of its important ingredients.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.7.76647

Authors: Michael Alexeev, Mira Nurmakhanova, Leonid I. Polishchuk

Abstract: Formal institutions and social capital interact with each other in multiple ways. We argue and show empirically at the cross-country level that in the case of group lending, contract enforcement complements bonding social capital and substitutes for bridging one. It means that payoff to social capital in group lending depends on social capital type and is contingent on the quality of contract enforcement which serves as a sorting factor, working in the opposite directions for different stripes of social capital. These results are robust to various estimations, sets of controls, and social capital measures.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.7.77285

Authors: Han-Sol Lee, Yury N. Moseykin, Sergey U. Chernikov

Abstract: This paper empirically analyzes sustainable relations between inward FDI (IFDI), outward FDI (OFDI), the R&D expenditure ratio and CO2 emissions based on balanced panel data from the BRICS (namely, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries for the period 2003–2017. Generally, the results confirm a negative effect of IFDI and a positive effect of OFDI on the R&D expenditure ratio, both with statistical significance. Further exploration of the IFDI, OFDI and R&D impacts on CO2 emissions was based on an assumption that innovation development mitigates environmental pollution. The research outcome revealed positive associations between IFDI and the R&D expenditure ratio with CO2 emissions, showing the connection of environmental pollution to growth-focused national economic strategies. Based on these results, we recommend the following policies: (1) rethinking domestic industries protectionism trends and research support to enhance FDI spillover effects, (2) the drafting of New Development Bank specific environment-friendly investment programs aimed at innovation activities, and (3) looking into further easing the green technologies from developed countries.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.7.78432

Authors: Leonid M. Grigoryev, Marina F. Starodubtseva

Abstract: Brazilian economic reforms in 21st century have great importance for the international community, especially for other countries of the middle level of development. The authors­ believe that, in spite of all the difficulties and crises, Brazil has made a decisive step forward by reforming its social structure and retaining democracy. Social reforms (especially­ minimal wage) led to strengthening middle class, but also to elevating its social aspirations. At this dramatic junction the economic development of the country was aggravated by external shocks and unsuccessful budget policies. The complex interaction of social macro­economic policies in Brazil with strong external shocks gives lessons to countries with similar characteristics. The pandemic and recession of 2020–2021 have made the path of development more complicated but there is room for optimism for Brazil in the long run.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.7.58419

Authors: Dmitry S. Tretyakov, Ivan V. Rozmainsky

Abstract: This paper tries to estimate the impact of financialization on fixed investment in Russia. The work is carried out by using panel data based on reports of non-financial publicly listed companies for 1999–2019. The study finds that financial expenses aimed at paying interest on external financing and paying dividends — that is, focusing on shareholder value, and hence decreasing the internal funds of companies, reduce real investments. Financial incomes have shown the crowding-out effect for large companies. Financial incomes as additional “free” funds in large companies are not perceived as an opportunity to accumulate fixed assets. Managers prefer to increase ­financial investments instead of real ones. In small and medium-sized companies, financial incomes, however, drive the growth of physical investment. This is because small firms, at a particular stage in their lives, find it more profitable to invest in their own growth. The results from the general sample, without dividing by size, indicate that financialization in Russia clearly reduces real investment.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.7.57933

Authors: Irina Tarasenko

Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports and imports of a range of goods between Russia and its 70 trading partners from 2004 until 2018. The goods in question fall into eight product categories, as follows: (i) agricultural raw materials­; (ii) chemicals; (iii) food; (iv) fuels; (v) manufactured goods; (vi) ores and metals­; (vii) textiles; and (viii) machinery and transport equipment. Exchange rate volatility­ is measured using the standard deviation of the first difference in the logarithmic daily nominal exchange rate. The paper concludes that exchange rate volatility had a negative impact on exports of agricultural raw materials, manufactured goods, and machinery and transport equipment. In contrast, it was found to have a positive and significant impact on trade in fuels and imports of chemicals and textiles.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.7.65328

Authors: Hamza Bouhali, Ahmed Dahbani, Brahim Dinar

Abstract: This study provides an updated analysis of the impact of COVID-19 daily contaminations and vaccinations on the financial markets by incorporating the third wave observed in 2021. Our methodology is based on a comparative approach using a multivariate hetero­scedasticity model and data from the Eurozone and ten other countries from different economies. Our results show that COVID-19 contaminations and vaccinations strongly affected most of the countries in our sample (except for the UK, Russia and India in the case of COVID-19 contaminations). We also found that optimistic market sentiment concerning the evolution of the pandemic prevailed among the countries forming our sample (except for Switzerland, Russia and India).

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.7.57894

Authors: Necati Berk

Abstract: Why do similar economic and political institutions function differently in various cultures? Do cultural traits, differences in individualism versus collectivism, have a causal impact on economic behavior and development? This article presents a recent survey of the literature on the relationship between culture, institutions, and economic growth. On the one hand, part of the literature indicates that there is a one-way causality from culture to institutions and economic performance. On the other hand, there is an extensive literature that has established causality from institutions to economic growth and culture. However, a growing body of empirical research demonstrates that culture and institutions interact in two ways and complement each other affecting long-term growth. Research documents cultural variables affecting a great deal of economic activity and institutions across the world. Recent dominant discourse on the role of the individualism-collectivism cleavage in the determination of the wealth of nations has attempted to examine the positive effects of individualism rather than collectivism. This paper shows that the advantages of collectivism have been rarely researched within economic literature. Taking into account collectivism can shed light on various puzzles in economics, such as solving collective action problems.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.7.56634

Authors: Vadim M. Rynkov

Abstract: This article uses archival documents and periodical publications to analyze the impact of the Civil War on the labor market in the regions of Eastern Russia. It considers key labor market institutions such as legislation, infrastructure (labor exchanges, unemployment funds, and professional and entrepreneurship organizations), and labor contracts. It has been established that there was continuity in the regulatory framework and labor market management tools between the Provisional Government and the anti-Bolshevik governments. The study shows the challenges and shortcomings of managing hiring and dismissal processes by soft regulatory methods given the deep economic crisis. The labor supply was backed by extensive cohorts of prisoners of war, refugees, and foreign workers, which contributed to a drop in labor rates. The government sought to stabilize the situation by reinforcing transactional barriers to reduce employment. The labor market in Eastern Russia was subjected to regionalization and localization.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.7.51709

Authors: Sofya A. Salomatina, Vladislav Y. Ivakin

Abstract: This paper studies the influence of the service sector (joint-stock commercial banks and railways) on the economic development of agricultural regions within the Russian empire in the second half of the 19th century, using the case of the Central Black Earth region. The study compares yield data for major crops, railroad transportation of grain and flour, and the banking services to agriculture producers and traders. Statistical analysis of this data disproves the prevailing historical economic viewpoint which claims that agricultural exports were not accompanied by bank support, because it did not take into account a rather high level of infrastructure around the Riga–Oryol railway trunk, which was formed back in the 1870s. The exports in this region consisted of the prior year’s harvest, which indicated a rather developed system of crop storage and accompanying banking services. The study reveals a dramatic growth in the services sector throughout the Central Black Earth region during the 1890s. In previous decades, this system could not be extended to the entire region due to a long history of unfavorable conditions in the agricultural and banking sectors. Thus, banking services in Russia at the end of the 19th century were provided to not just industrial and stock markets customers. In those regions dominated by agriculture, services infrastructure had been oriented towards this sector.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.7.56600

Authors: Carol S. Leonard, Zafar Nazarov, Leonid I. Borodkin, Maria A. Karpenko, Roman B. Konchakov

Abstract: This paper shows that railroad building in Russia, as in Europe and the US in the nineteenth century, improved the value of land, a classic benefit of transportation investment in largely agrarian countries. From a database constructed for this paper, we use cross-sectional data for the fifty European Russian regions to show the association of the length of the railroad (measured in 1894), land prices (measured in 1900) and annual growth of land prices (in rubles) for 1885–1910.

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DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.7.49151

Authors: Elena S. Korchmina, Paul Sharp

Abstract: We propose that the “historically relevant” comparison of the Danish and Russian Empires from the early eighteenth century until the First World War presents a useful starting point for a promising research agenda. We justify the comparison by noting that the two empires enjoyed striking geographical, political and institutional similarities. Beyond this, we also demonstrate that the two empires were bound together by war, royal marriage, and migration. We suggest some examples of what might be investigated, with a particular focus on agriculture, due to its importance to both Danish and Russian economic history. Finally, we zoom in on the role Danish experts played for developing the Russian butter industry.

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