2026-05-14T19:05:05Z https://rujec.org/oai.php

10.1016/j.ruje.2015.05.005 2015-02-28 rujec

Introductory note from the Editor-in-Chief Kudrin,Alexey L. Russian Journal of Economics 1(1): 1-3 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2015 Short Communication text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2015.05.005 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2015.05.005 https://rujec.org/article/27939/ https://rujec.org/article/27939/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2015.05.003 2015-02-28 rujec

Global crisis and challenges for Russian economic development Mau,Vladimir Ulyukaev,Alexey economic policy economic growth crisis globalization re-industrialization Russia Russian Journal of Economics 1(1): 4-29 Global crisis forms new economic policy agenda which raises new questions for economic theory and economic thinking. This paper deals with these new intellectual challenges. Among them: growth theory and the risks of secular stagnation, unconventional macroeconomic policy and the prospects of financial stability, inequality and growth, the new welfare state, the prospects of globalization vs. de-globalization, and the re-industrialization in advanced economies. Based on the analysis of global trends, the paper discusses the roots and features of current Russian economic problems, compares the 2008–2009 and 2014–2015 crises, and factorizes the last one on three main components. The analysis includes the effects of sanctions against Russia on the current economic situation and the structural problems that slow down economic growth. Special attention is paid to examples of medium-term and long-term steps that can provide sustainable development for the Russian economy. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2015 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2015.05.003 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2015.05.003 https://rujec.org/article/27941/ https://rujec.org/article/27941/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2015.05.002 2015-02-28 rujec

A new growth model for the Russian economy Kudrin,Alexey L. Gurvich,Evsey T. growth model oil and gas revenues soft budget constraints incentives for growth Russian Journal of Economics 1(1): 30-54 The problems underlying the current slowdown of the Russian economy are of a persistent nature and cannot be resolved with simple measures such as a softer monetary or fiscal policy. The fundamen- tal reason for these problems is the weak market environment dominated by public and quasi-public companies. A new growth model should be based upon strong incentive for the business, as well as the government regulation system, to improve efficiency. This article defines the main steps to be taken in building such a model. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2015 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2015.05.002 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2015.05.002 https://rujec.org/article/27940/ https://rujec.org/article/27940/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2015.05.001 2015-02-28 rujec

The state-owned company: “State failure” or “market failure”? Radygin,Alexander D. Simachev,Yury Entov,Revold M. state-owned company state-owned enterprise privatization state failure market failure political markets state regulation allocative efficiency property rights Russian Journal of Economics 1(1): 55-80 This article will analyze the activity of state-owned companies and their place in the structure of market relations from the standpoint of contemporary approaches to the study of “state failure” and “market failure”. It will also consider the implications of the systematic embedding of private property rights. In addition to considering the costs of the functions of state-owned companies, the authors address the actual experience of the Russian economy in the present day, the experience of forming state corporations and the risks associated with their operation. Particular attention will be paid to the inhibition of incentives to improve the general institutional environment and, conversely, to the increasing incidence of direct state intervention in matters that affect economic development. We will examine the various ways in which the growth of the public sector, de jure and de facto, reduces opportunities for implementing private property rights. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2015 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2015.05.001 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2015.05.001 https://rujec.org/article/27942/ https://rujec.org/article/27942/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2015.05.004 2015-02-28 rujec

Behavioral economics and the ‘new’ paternalism Kapeliushnikov,Rostislav behavioral economics welfare economics new paternalism normative analysis Russian Journal of Economics 1(1): 81-107 The paper provides a critical appraisal of the normative program of behavioral economics known as ‘new paternalism’. First, it explores the theoretical foundations of behavioral economics, describes major behavioral anomalies associated with bounded rationality of economic agents and discusses its normative principles and political implications. It then discusses the main empirical and conceptual drawbacks of new paternalism and provides arguments for the alternative non-welfarist normative tradition based on the idea of freedom. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2015 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2015.05.004 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2015.05.004 https://rujec.org/article/27943/ https://rujec.org/article/27943/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2015.11.004 2015-05-31 rujec

A new reality: Russia and global challenges Medvedev,Dmitry Russian economic policy innovation economy public administration Russian Journal of Economics 1(2): 109-129 The article considers social and economic challenges that Russia faces in the context of present-day global transformation. Key technological, economic, and social trends, which determine the contours of the post-crisis world, are analyzed. A long-term agenda for the country's development aimed at securing a new quality of economic growth is proposed. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2015 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2015.11.004 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2015.11.004 https://rujec.org/article/27944/ https://rujec.org/article/27944/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2015.11.002 2015-05-31 rujec

Economic Fluctuations in Russia (from the late 1920s to 2015) Smirnov,Sergey economic history economic crises planned economy Russia Russian Journal of Economics 1(2): 130-153 In many respects, the historical trajectory of the Russian economy during the XX century has been a terra incognita until now. As for official statistics, at least three important reasons can be given for this. First, many relevant indicators were either not measured or were kept secret and never published. Second, Russia (as the RSFSR) was a part of the USSR, and statistics for the RSFSR were much less prevalent than for the USSR as a whole (historical changes in Russia's borders also require special consideration). Third, an ideological dogma implied the absence of inflation in the planned Soviet economy; therefore, all deflators (if any) were underestimated, and all aggregates in constant and/or comparable prices were overestimated (as were the corresponding growth rates). As for the unofficial historical estimates, most of them were focused on the USSR, not on the RSFSR; therefore, there is a considerable risk in using them as a proxy for historical indicators of the Russian Federation. Hence, our first aim was to construct statistical time series that might be useful in describing the long-term trajectory of the Russian (the RSFSR and/or the RF) economy. Using previously unpublished data stored in Russian archives, we attempted to extend them as far back as possible; in fact, most of the series began in the late 1920s. Our second aim was to denote periods of growth and contraction in the Russian economy and to reveal the economic factors that caused changes in trajectory. Periods of contraction during the era of the planned economy were of special interest for us. We found that recessions had occurred, not only in the market but also in the planned Russian economy (of course, with a significant remark that contractions in the planned economy were much rarer but evidently more destructive). info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2015 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2015.11.002 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2015.11.002 https://rujec.org/article/27945/ https://rujec.org/article/27945/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2015.11.005 2015-05-31 rujec

How (not) to measure Russian regional institutions Baranov,Alexey Malkov,Egor Polishchuk,Leonid I. Rochlitz,Michael Syunyaev,Georgiy institutions institutional measurement regional rankings centralized and decentralized corruption institutional dynamics Russian Journal of Economics 1(2): 154-181 The paper explores various measures of institutional quality in Russian regions, and compares those measures to each other. Such analysis leads to the conclusion that Russian regional institutions are essentially multidimensional, and therefore comparisons of Russian regions in terms of their overall institutional quality could be problematic. New institutional indices are derived from Russian enterprise surveys held under the BEEPS project of the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development. Such indices yield a typology of Russian regions in terms of efficacy of regional administrations’ control over economy and bureaucracy in their regions. Dynamics of regional institutional indices is investigated against the backdrop of Russia-wide institutional trends.JEL classification: D73, D78, H73, H83, O17 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2015 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2015.11.005 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2015.11.005 https://rujec.org/article/27946/ https://rujec.org/article/27946/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2015.11.003 2015-05-31 rujec

Informal institutions and radical ideologies under institutional transformation Starodubrovskaya,Irina institutional change informal institutions anomie intergenerational conflict Islamic fundamentalism Russian Journal of Economics 1(2): 182-198 This article questions one of the central postulates of institutional economic theory, i.e., that of the sustainability and purely evolutionary changes of informal institutions. To study the phenomenon of the destruction of informal institutions and its consequences, we use the tools of sociological theory, which acknowledge that a period of intensive urbanization is characterized by anomie, i.e., a lack of norms, in which traditional institutions are destroyed, while new urban institutions have not yet taken shape. We reviewed the possible reactions of communities and individuals to the conditions of anomie, including the compensatory mechanisms of ideologies. In the case of the Dagestan Republic, we show how the proliferation of fundamentalist Islamic ideology is associated with the state of anomie and the consequences to which it could lead from an institutional point of view. The analysis of the situation in Dagestan is based on long-term field research conducted in the region. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2015 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2015.11.003 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2015.11.003 https://rujec.org/article/27947/ https://rujec.org/article/27947/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2015.11.001 2015-05-31 rujec

Markets of joint products: A theoretical model and policy implications Shastitko,Andrey E. Shastitko,Anastasia joint products joint costs competition Russian Journal of Economics 1(2): 199-216 The article considers the phenomenon of price behavior in markets of joint products. It shows that conclusions about the nature of economic entities’ behavior on this type of market could be inaccurate if the characteristics of these markets, such as joint costs, are not taken into account. For this purpose, a theoretical model, built according to basic microeconomic principals, is applied. This model provides an opportunity to reveal—without further new institutional analysis —that the reason for price deviation from a competitive level does not always lie in actions restricting competition. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2015 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2015.11.001 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2015.11.001 https://rujec.org/article/27948/ https://rujec.org/article/27948/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.005 2015-08-31 rujec

Russian devaluation in 2014–2015: Falling into the abyss or a window of opportunity? Mironov,Valeriy devaluation real exchange rate Marshall-Lerner condition resource curse economic policy Russia Russian Journal of Economics 1(3): 217-239 Falling oil prices are leading to a reduction in domestic demand and lowering of the ruble exchange rate, thus enhancing the price competitiveness of Russian producers and stimulating the supply side of the economy (especially in foreign markets unaffected by the recession). Indeed, all of this create the possibility of offsetting the decline in domestic demand to a varying degree through increased net exports. However, the present study shows that, taking into account all of the structural problems of the Russian economy, the devaluation of the ruble may lead to a more severe recession than anticipated by most experts in their estimates, judging by average consensus forecasts (as of the end of September 2015). info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2015 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.005 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.005 https://rujec.org/article/27949/ https://rujec.org/article/27949/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.002 2015-08-31 rujec

The fiscal gap: An estimate for Russia Goryunov,Evgeny Kotlikoff,Lawrence Sinelnikov-Murylev,Sergey G. fiscal policy fiscal sustainability demographic forecast oil and gas revenues pension system Russian Journal of Economics 1(3): 240-256 The fiscal gap is an indicator of the long-term balance of public finance and is calculated based on the intertemporal government budget constraint, which links government tax revenues and expenditures over long intervals. The estimate of the fiscal gap for the Russian general government has been determined according to three scenarios with varying assumptions regarding demographic trends, productivity growth rates, oil and gas prices and the quantity of extractable reserves. The calculations show that the current fiscal policy cannot provide for the stability of public finance in the long run. The main factors of budget imbalances are the growth of pension and health care expenditures caused by demographic trends and the gradual decline in tax receipts from the oil and gas sector. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2015 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.002 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.002 https://rujec.org/article/27950/ https://rujec.org/article/27950/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.004 2015-08-31 rujec

A theoretical interpretation of the oil prices impact on economic growth in contemporary Russia Idrisov,Georgy Kazakova,Maria Polbin,Andrey oil prices economic growth small open economy Russian Journal of Economics 1(3): 257-272 This article analyzes the impact of global oil prices on Russia's economic growth and its growth rate in terms of output. It also reviews the mechanics of the long-term and short-term impacts on output resulting from changes in oil prices. The authors argue that the effect of oil prices on output has decreased dramatically under current economic conditions ever since the period of recovery growth in the early 2000s. The main conclusion of the paper is that, on the basis of classical models, a constant increase in oil prices cannot influence the long-term economic growth rate and only predetermines short-term transitional trends from one long-term equilibrium to another. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2015 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.004 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.004 https://rujec.org/article/27951/ https://rujec.org/article/27951/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.001 2015-08-31 rujec

Long-term portfolio investments: New insight into return and risk Abramov,Alexander Radygin,Alexander D. Chernova,Maria retirement savings long-term investments investment horizon stock and bond returns stock and bond investment risks portfolio diversification Russian Journal of Economics 1(3): 273-293 This article analyzes the impact of the increase of an investment horizon on the comparative advantages of the basic asset classes and on the principles of constructing the investment strategy. It demonstrates that the traditional approach of portfolio management theory, which states that investments in stocks are preferable over bonds in terms of their long-run risk–return trade-offs, is by no means always consistent with empirical evidence. This article proves the opposite, i.e., that for long-term investors, investments in corporate bonds are more profitable in terms of the risk–return ratio than investments in stocks, arguing in favor of strategies pursued by pension funds and other institutional investors focused primarily on investments in fixed-income instruments, including infrastructural bonds. Emphasis is placed on the need for regular adjustments to long-term investors’ portfolios. As portfolios get older, those investors see a reduction in the returns’ dispersion, while differences in risk between various portfolios increase. This means that to maintain a fixed risk–return ratio for a portfolio as the horizon increases, an investor needs to increase the share of lower-risk financial assets during asset allocation process. This thesis becomes especially relevant in the context of retirement savings management. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2015 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.001 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.001 https://rujec.org/article/27952/ https://rujec.org/article/27952/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.006 2015-08-31 rujec

The myth of the “Culture code” in economic research Tambovtsev,Vitaly culture economic growth culture code reification societal values cultural practices Russian Journal of Economics 1(3): 294-312 This paper is devoted to the critical analysis of today's mainstream approach to the inclusion of the factor of culture in economic research. National culture is treated in this framework as a reified entity measured by societal values and is persistently included as a “culture code” throughout different contexts. The paper presents evidence contradicting this treatment, and an alternative methodology for economic analysis of cultural phenomena is suggested, namely that each mass cultural practice should be analyzed on a “case-by-case” basis, comparing stakeholders’ costs and benefits. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2015 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.006 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.006 https://rujec.org/article/27953/ https://rujec.org/article/27953/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.003 2015-08-31 rujec

The elites’ demand for law: “Overcrowded streetcar (tram) effect” Grigoryev,Leonid M. elite demand for law rule of law Russian Journal of Economics 1(3): 313-327 The demand for law on the part of the society (business, middle class, civil society) is not sufficient at the transformation stage — the reciprocal demand for law from the power elite is necessary. Contemporary theory states that in the contrary case the pressure on elites would require a more open regime of participation. In order to strengthen the positions of the power elite in the long-run it is necessary to limit endless redistribution of assets and introduce the common rule for all. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2015 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.003 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.003 https://rujec.org/article/27954/ https://rujec.org/article/27954/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2016.02.001 2015-11-30 rujec

Output gap uncertainty and real-time monetary policy Grigoli,Francesco Herman,Alexander Swiston,Andrew Di Bella,Gabriel output gap monetary policy policy rule data revisions real-time uncertainty Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru inflation target business cycle Russian Journal of Economics 1(4): 329-358 Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing principally to the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. We show that country desks tend to overestimate economic slack, especially during recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap revisions is predictable based on output dynamics, data quality, and policy frameworks. We also show that for a group of Latin American inflation targeters the prescriptions from monetary policy rules are subject to large changes due to revised output gap estimates. These explain a sizable proportion of the deviation of inflation from target, suggesting this information is not accounted for in real-time policy decisions. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2015 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2016.02.001 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2016.02.001 https://rujec.org/article/27955/ https://rujec.org/article/27955/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2016.02.002 2015-11-30 rujec

The impact of financial sanctions on the Russian economy Gurvich,Evsey T. Prilepskiy,Ilya financial sanctions balance of payments adjustment external debt capital flows Russian Journal of Economics 1(4): 359-385 This paper examines the impact of the current Western financial sanctions on the Russian economy. Modeling the capital flow components (accounting for the influence of other factors, including falling oil prices) reveals that sanctions have directly affected sanctioned state-controlled banks, oil, gas and arms companies by severely constraining foreign funding and have indirectly affected non-sanctioned companies by reducing inflows of foreign direct investment and causing funding conditions to deteriorate. The overall negative effect on gross capital inflow over 2014–2017 is estimated at approximately $280bn. However, the effect on net capital inflow is significantly lower ($160–170bn) due to Russian companies’ self-adjustment, which is evidenced by their utilization of foreign assets accumulated earlier for debt repayment and an overall decrease in gross capital outflow. The sanctions’ estimated effect on GDP is significant (–2.4 p.p. by 2017, compared with a hypothetical scenario with no sanctions) but 3.3 times lower than the estimated effects of the oil price shock. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2015 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2016.02.002 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2016.02.002 https://rujec.org/article/27956/ https://rujec.org/article/27956/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2016.02.003 2015-11-30 rujec

Capital mobility in Russia Ketenci,Natalya Feldstein–Horioka puzzle saving–investment association capital mobility cointegration structural breaks Russia Russian Journal of Economics 1(4): 386-403 This paper investigates the level of capital mobility in Russia, testing the Feldstein–Horioka (1980) puzzle (FHP). The study examines relations between saving and investment flows in Russia in the presence of structural breaks. It employs the quarterly data for the period 1995–2013, in which all estimations are made for two periods: the full period 1995–2013 and 2000–2013, the post-Russian crisis period. The empirical analysis includes the Kejriwal and Perron (2008, 2010) structural break test to determine the presence of structural breaks in series and estimate the savings retention coefficient under the consideration of structural shifts. To facilitate comparison, the parameters of the model were estimated employing the OLS and FMOLS procedures. To test the cointegration relationships between investment and saving flows in Russia, two different cointegration tests were applied to the data. The first applied was the Maki (2012) cointegration test, which allows for an unknown number of breaks; then, in a case where only one break was detected, the Carrion-i-Silvestre and Sanso (2006) cointegration test was employed. The results of this study provide evidence of high capital mobility and reject the existence of the FHP in the post-Russian crisis period. Evidence of the cointegration presence indicates the solvency of a current account in Russia. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2015 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2016.02.003 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2016.02.003 https://rujec.org/article/27957/ https://rujec.org/article/27957/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2016.02.004 2015-11-30 rujec

Fiscal decentralization and regional economic growth: Theory, empirics, and the Russian experience Yushkov,Andrey fiscal decentralization economic growth Russian regions Russian Journal of Economics 1(4): 404-418 The article addresses the theoretical and empirical relation between fiscal decentralization and economic growth. An empirical analysis of Russian regions for 2005–2012 shows that excessive expenditure decentralization within the region, which is not accompanied by the respective level of revenue decentralization, is significantly and negatively related to regional economic growth. In contrast, regional dependence on intergovernmental fiscal transfers from the federal center is positively associated with economic growth. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2015 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2016.02.004 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2016.02.004 https://rujec.org/article/27958/ https://rujec.org/article/27958/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2016.02.005 2015-11-30 rujec

Hyman Minsky's financial instability hypothesis and the Greek debt crisis Beshenov,Sergey Rozmainsky,Ivan financial instability hypothesis Minsky Post-Keynesianism financial fragility Greek crisis austerity measures Russian Journal of Economics 1(4): 419-438 This article attempts to analyze the current debt crisis in Greece based on the financial instability hypothesis developed by Hyman Minsky. This article shows that the hypothesis provides an understanding of how an economy endogenously becomes “financially fragile” and thus prone to crises. The authors analyze how public and private sector behavior in the Greek economy led to the country's debt crisis. In particular, based on a sample of 36 Greek companies, the authors show that between 2001 and 2014, the majority of those companies had switched to fragile financial structures. Special attention is devoted to the negative consequences of applying the neoclassical doctrine of “austerity measures” in Greece as the principal “anti-crisis” concept of mainstream economic science. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2015 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2016.02.005 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2016.02.005 https://rujec.org/article/27959/ https://rujec.org/article/27959/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2016.04.001 2016-02-29 rujec

Anti-crisis measures or structural reforms: Russian economic policy in 2015 Mau,Vladimir economic policy crisis structural reforms global trends Russia Russian Journal of Economics 2(1): 1-22 This paper addresses the trends and challenges of 2015 for social and economic policy in the near future. The analysis of the global crisis includes uneven developments between the leading advanced and emerging economies, new models of economic growth that look differently across different countries, the prospects of globalization and the challenges of “regional globalization,” currency configurations of the future, and energy price trends and their influence on the political and economic prospects of particular states. The current challenges are discussed in the context of the previous 30 years. Among the main topics on Russia, there are approaches to a new growth model, structural transformation (including import-substitution issues), economic trends, budget and monetary outlines, and social issues. Priorities for economic policy are also a topic of discussion. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2016 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2016.04.001 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2016.04.001 https://rujec.org/article/27960/ https://rujec.org/article/27960/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2016.04.002 2016-02-29 rujec

Russian stock market in the aftermath of the Ukrainian crisis Nivorozhkin,Eugene Castagneto-Gissey,Giorgio synchronicity decoupling equity stock market Ukrainian crisis Russia Russian Journal of Economics 2(1): 23-40 This paper studies the dynamic relationship between returns in the Russian stock market and global equity markets in the aftermath of the 2014 Ukrainian crisis. We apply dynamic goodness-of-fit and bootstrapped regression approaches to study the behavior of global equity indices. Our results reveal a significant fall in the degree of synchronicity between the Russian and global equity returns after the crisis outbreak. The Russian stock market clearly decoupled from both developed and emerging markets, as shown by a 30–50% decline in returns correlation. In view of dramatic increase in synchronicity across the Russian sectoral stock indices after the sanctions were introduced, our results suggest that the economic sanctions imposed on Russia during that period have effectively isolated the Russian equity market from the rest of the world and triggered extensive portfolio outflows from the Russian market. As a result of the economic sanctions and the limited choice of investments in Russia, the decreased co-movement between the Russian and global equity returns is unlikely to provide investors with superior diversification opportunities, whilst the returns of the Russian market in the medium-term will likely continue to be predominately driven by idiosyncratic news. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2016 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2016.04.002 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2016.04.002 https://rujec.org/article/27961/ https://rujec.org/article/27961/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2016.04.003 2016-02-29 rujec

In the absence of private property rights: Political control and state corporatism during Putin's first tenure Vanteeva,Nadia state corporatism industry growth property rights Russia Russian Journal of Economics 2(1): 41-55 This paper argues that Russia's choice of economic organization, which is based on the renewed role of the state, is a response to the existence of severe transaction costs, and subsequent mitigation of contractual incompleteness in the absence of a strong property rights system. Ill-defined property rights have historically hampered formation of business classes in Russia, reducing the necessity for appropriate market infrastructure. This also implied that if Russia's political and economic system had more than one competing hierarchy, the objective of the elites would not have entailed long-term economic growth, as gains from short-term wealth tunneling would have been much larger. As in the early 2000s Russian investment projects were generally defined by large sunk costs and long-term to maturity, under a weak legal system a new substitute governing mechanism, which took form of the state–private co-partnership system, has arisen in order to reduce hold-up costs leading to high levels of underinvestment. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2016 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2016.04.003 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2016.04.003 https://rujec.org/article/27962/ https://rujec.org/article/27962/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2016.04.004 2016-02-29 rujec

Under-reported income of Russian households Murashov,Yaroslav Ratnikova,Tatiana under-reported household income household consumer behavior under-reported income parameter regression analyses instruments random effects Russian Journal of Economics 2(1): 56-85 In the proposed paper, an attempt is made to estimate the proportion of unstated income for Russian households based on micro data. An overview of microeconomic approaches to estimating the scale of under-reported income is provided. These approaches are weakly represented in the national literature, so their strengths and weaknesses are also analyzed. A theoretical model of household consumer behavior is described that allows the size of under-reported income to be estimated. The structure of household incomes and expenditures is studied based on an RLMS sample for 2012. The model is estimated using household subsamples based on the type of household and household income. The estimation technique utilizes regression variables and random effects. The resulting subsample estimates were applied to the general population and compared with those obtained by other researchers using alternative methods and other data. A comparison is made to estimates of under-reported income developed for British households. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2016 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2016.04.004 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2016.04.004 https://rujec.org/article/27963/ https://rujec.org/article/27963/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2016.04.005 2016-02-29 rujec

Meeting blindly… Is Austrian economics useful for dynamic capabilities theory? Shastitko,Andrey E. Golovanova,Svetlana competition antitrust policy entrepreneurship dynamic capabilities Austrian economics new institutional economics strategic management sustainable competitive advantages Russian Journal of Economics 2(1): 86-110 This paper relates competition studies and views on competition policy within Austrian economics to the dynamic capabilities theory. The idea of interacting research programs in economics is used to provide the frame for reflecting on particular issues of competition, on the one hand, and (1) ignorance, (2) knowledge (including tacit knowledge), (3) rationality, (4) equilibrium, (5) innovation, (6) entrepreneurship, and (7) monopoly, on the other hand. Unlike the majority of previous studies, these issues are discussed here mainly through the lens of new institutional economics. Williamson's three-level scheme is used to explain opportunities and constraints for mutually enriching exchange of concepts between different but close approaches in economic research. This paper shows that there are important interconnections and complementarities despite significant differences in objects of study and weak mutual flows of ideas and concepts. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2016 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2016.04.005 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2016.04.005 https://rujec.org/article/27964/ https://rujec.org/article/27964/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2016.06.001 2016-05-31 rujec

Economic sovereignty. An agenda for Militant Russia Malle,Silvana Russia economic security import substitution development eastward trade investment China Russian Journal of Economics 2(2): 111-128 This paper argues that Russia has embarked on a difficult path to economic sovereignty and heightened security to withstand rising antagonism from the West that culminated with the application of punitive sanctions against Russia's positioning on Ukraine. With the aim of lessening economic dependence on trade with the EU, its major trade partner for decades, Russia tries to work out a patriotic model of growth based on two vectors: import and trade partner substitution. The pursuit of self-sufficiency in foodstuffs adds an important pillar to security concerns as reflected earlier in the 2010 Doctrine on Food Security. But import substitution will be costly and difficult to manage. Fiscal balances and exchange rates will need to adjust to the new challenges. Finding new partners eastwards is also complicated. Trade with China, in hydrocarbons or other commodities, requires massive infrastructural work that neither the government nor private investors can afford in a situation of financial stringency. Investment from China is slow to materialize as the economic slowdown also impinges on China's projects. Nonetheless important deals on gas and infrastructure have been agreed and are pursued despite difficulties. A favourable institutional framework aimed at attracting investors to the Far East is in place. It will be up to the local administrations to make the best of it and venture capital to run the risk. The outlook is long-term, but both Russia and China have learnt from history to be patient. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2016 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2016.06.001 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2016.06.001 https://rujec.org/article/27965/ https://rujec.org/article/27965/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2016.06.002 2016-05-31 rujec

The military dimension of a more Militant Russia Cooper,Julian Russia economy military expenditure defence sanctions economic performance Russian Journal of Economics 2(2): 129-145 The article analyses the development of the military dimension of Russia's economy over the past decade or more, including the significant growth of military expenditure and its principal driver, spending on the ambitious state armament programme to 2020. For the first time for almost twenty-five years Russia once again possesses capable armed forces. With greater economic and military strength Russia's leadership now feels able to be more assertive, even militant, on the world stage. These developments threaten to be constrained by the poor performance of the economy, facing the government with a policy challenge. However, for Russia and the main Western powers there can be no going back to the status quo ante. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2016 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2016.06.002 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2016.06.002 https://rujec.org/article/27966/ https://rujec.org/article/27966/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2016.06.003 2016-05-31 rujec

What is Russia trying to defend? Yakovlev,Andrei A. Russia transition economy model of economic development Ukrainian crisis elites ideology Russian Journal of Economics 2(2): 146-161 Contrary to the focus on the events of the last two years (2014–2015) associated with the accession of Crimea to Russia and military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, in this study, I stress that serious changes in Russian domestic policy (with strong pressure on political opposition, state propaganda and sharp anti-Western rhetoric, as well as the fight against “foreign agents’) became visible in 2012. Geopolitical ambitions to revise the “global order” (introduced by the USA after the collapse of the USSR) and the increased role of Russia in “global governance” were declared by leaders of the country much earlier, with Vladimir Putin's famous Munich speech in 2007. These ambitions were based on the robust economic growth of the mid-2000s, which encouraged the Russian ruling elite to adopt the view that Russia (with its huge energy resources) is a new economic superpower. In this paper, I will show that the concept of “Militant Russia” in a proper sense can be attributed rather to the period of the mid-2000s. After 2008–2009, the global financial crisis and, especially, the Arab Spring and mass political protests against electoral fraud in Moscow in December 2011, the Russian ruling elite made mostly “militant” attempts to defend its power and assets. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2016 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2016.06.003 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2016.06.003 https://rujec.org/article/27967/ https://rujec.org/article/27967/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2016.06.005 2016-05-31 rujec

Firm entry and exit during a crisis period: Evidence from Russian regions Iwasaki,Ichiro Maurel,Mathilde Meunier,Bogdan firm entry firm exit institutions economic integration crisis Russia Russian Journal of Economics 2(2): 162-191 In this paper, we aim to empirically analyze the determinants of firm entry and exit in Russia using a regional-level panel data for the years of 2008–2014, with special emphasis on institutional failures and the politico-economic impact of external crises. We found that these two elements exhibit statistically significant and economically meaningful effects both on the creation and destruction of Russian firms, controlling for potentially explanatory factors. Our empirical results also suggest that the process of firm entry and exit is manifold across Russian regions due to their heterogeneity. Nevertheless, a surprisingly robust estimate of the world oil price (irrespective of the difference in target regions) suggests a possible high exposure of each Russian region to a global crisis. This comes from the importance of oil trade with the world and, accordingly, the ongoing crisis may bring a harmful influence to regeneration of Russian businesses. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2016 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2016.06.005 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2016.06.005 https://rujec.org/article/27968/ https://rujec.org/article/27968/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2016.06.004 2016-05-31 rujec

Polarization or upgrading? Evolution of employment in transitional Russia Gimpelson,Vladimir E. Kapeliushnikov,Rostislav job polarization job upgrading job quality employment restructuring Russia Russian Journal of Economics 2(2): 192-218 This paper discusses the structural changes in Russian employment and explores whether the evolution of employment from 2000 to 2012 followed the scenario of progressive upgrading in job quality or brought about the polarization of jobs in terms of quality. Jobs are defined in this study as occupation-industry cells, and their quality is measured through relative earnings and education level. Using detailed micro-data from a few complementary large-scale surveys, we rank all jobs according to the earnings and educational criteria and divide these distributions into five quintiles. At the next stage, we explore dynamic changes in job quality and socio-demographic characteristics of workers in different quintiles. The paper rejects the polarization scenario and confirms the upgrading hypothesis. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2016 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2016.06.004 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2016.06.004 https://rujec.org/article/27969/ https://rujec.org/article/27969/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2016.08.001 2016-08-31 rujec

Russia's economy: Before the long transition Akindinova,Natalya V. Kuzminov,Yaroslav I. Yasin,Evgeny three-sector economic model economic development scenarios fiscal policy social policy middle class Russian Journal of Economics 2(3): 219-245 This article explains the main stages and results of economic development in Russia since the early 1990s. It describes the process of the formation and the basic features of a three-sector economic model, as well as the reasons for its stability and existing constraints on economic growth. The authors consider the most likely scenario for the evolution of the current economic model under steadily declining export revenues. They also investigate fiscal and social risks and alternatives in economic policy. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2016 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2016.08.001 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2016.08.001 https://rujec.org/article/27970/ https://rujec.org/article/27970/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2016.09.001 2016-08-31 rujec

Central bank policy under significant balance-of-payment shocks and structural shifts Sinyakov,Andrey Yudaeva,Ksenia monetary policy terms-of-trade shock Russian economy IS-MP model Russian Journal of Economics 2(3): 246-278 In this paper, we analyze a number of monetary and FX policy alternatives using the model of a small open oil-exporting economy hit by severe balance-of-payment shocks, such as those that simultaneously affected the Russian economy in 2014–2015. For our purposes, we modify Romer's (2013) IS-MP general equilibrium model by adding a structure similar to the Russian economy (tradables and oil vs. non-tradables). In the model, we consider an optimal policy mix that includes a floating exchange rate, FX liquidity provision by a central bank and temporary tightening of monetary policy. The flexible exchange rate works as a shock absorber, helping restore aggregate demand and domestic production. If inflation expectations are not anchored, contractionary monetary policy helps to stabilize them. Financial stability risks are addressed by lending FX liquidity to the banking sector. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2016 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2016.09.001 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2016.09.001 https://rujec.org/article/27971/ https://rujec.org/article/27971/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2016.09.002 2016-08-31 rujec

Terms of trade and Russian economic development Idrisov,Georgy Ponomarev,Yury Sinelnikov-Murylev,Sergey G. economic development terms of trade GDP GDI Russian Journal of Economics 2(3): 279-301 The paper discusses economic development trends in Russia in late 2014 and 2015 and reviews the basic mechanisms of how changes in the terms of trade affect the economic development of countries from a historical perspective and with a particular focus on those changes in the Russian economy that occurred in late 2014 and 2015. The authors demonstrate that structural reforms aimed at diversification of production and exports are necessary for sustainable economic development, for social stability and for reducing the impact of variability in the terms of trade on the Russian economy. During periods of instability in the government agenda's measures for the real and financial sectors, it is necessary not only to compensate economic agents losses caused by changes in the terms of trade but also to improve the economic structure and to develop and enhance the stability of the financial markets. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2016 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2016.09.002 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2016.09.002 https://rujec.org/article/27972/ https://rujec.org/article/27972/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2016.08.002 2016-08-31 rujec

Currency crises in post-Soviet economies — a never ending story? Dabrowski,Marek currency crisis former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine global financial crisis commodity prices monetary regimes Russian Journal of Economics 2(3): 302-326 Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, its successor states have suffered from cyclical currency crises. The most recent episode of 2014–2016 was caused by a combination of external and domestic factors. The former include tighter US monetary policy, slower global growth, and declining commodity prices, whereas the latter include the former Soviet Union (FSU) economies’ extreme macroeconomic fragility (a legacy of past crises), numerous microeconomic rigidities and structural distortions in addition to governmental deficits. In addition, the Russian–Ukraine conflict dealt a heavy blow to both economies and their neighbors. Effective anti-crisis policies must aim at eliminating all deep-rooted causes of repeated financial and macroeconomic turbulence and must involve deep structural and institutional reforms in the entire region. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2016 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2016.08.002 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2016.08.002 https://rujec.org/article/27973/ https://rujec.org/article/27973/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2016.11.001 2016-11-30 rujec

Social and economic development of Russia: Finding new dynamics Medvedev,Dmitry economic policy economic growth import substitution global crisis anti-crisis policy Russia Russian Journal of Economics 2(4): 327-348 This paper addresses Russian economic development and economic policy in 2015–2016. The analysis focuses on external and domestic challenges as well as the anti-crisis policy of the Russian government. Special attention is paid to key elements of the new model of economic growth in Russia. The paper discusses economic policy priorities for sustainable growth that include budget efficiency, structural reforms and import substitution, the encouragement of entrepreneurship, the efficiency of public administration, and the modernization of the welfare state. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2016 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2016.11.001 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2016.11.001 https://rujec.org/article/27974/ https://rujec.org/article/27974/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2016.11.002 2016-11-30 rujec

Institutional constraints and economic development Gurvich,Evsey T. economic reforms economic programs institutions growth diagnostics Russian Journal of Economics 2(4): 349-374 This article is an attempt to find a grounded answer to the question of why many large-scale economic development programs worked out in Russia from 2000 through 2010 have failed to yield the expected results. To this end, the author has diagnosed the Russian economy, including a comparative analysis against 20 countries at similar levels of development and analyzed both the Russian and global experience in developing and implementing economic programs. The author concludes that the development of the Russian economy is currently hindered by a rigid institutional framework and that growth cannot accelerate without removing it as part of the political process. Based on the analysis of various types of institutional reforms, specific measures are proposed that can ensure the country's evolutional development and can mitigate the economic and social risks threatening Russia if the status quo is maintained. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2016 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2016.11.002 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2016.11.002 https://rujec.org/article/27975/ https://rujec.org/article/27975/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2016.11.003 2016-11-30 rujec

Leniency programs and socially beneficial cooperation: Effects of type I errors Pavlova,Natalia Shastitko,Andrey E. antitrust competition collusion cooperation agreements leniency enforcement errors corruption compliance policies Russian Journal of Economics 2(4): 375-401 This study operationalizes the concept of hostility tradition in antitrust as mentioned by Oliver Williamson and Ronald Coase through erroneous law enforcement effects. The antitrust agency may commit type I, not just type II, errors when evaluating an agreement in terms of cartels. Moreover, firms can compete in a standard way, collude or engage in cooperative agreements that improve efficiency. The antitrust agency may misinterpret such cooperative agreements, committing a type I error (over-enforcement). The model set-up is drawn from Motta and Polo (2003) and is extended as described above using the findings of Ghebrihiwet and Motchenkova (2010). Three effects play a role in this environment. Type I errors may induce firms that would engage in socially efficient cooperation absent errors to opt for collusion (the deserved punishment effect). For other parameter configurations, type I errors may interrupt ongoing cooperation when investigated. In this case, the firms falsely report collusion and apply for leniency, fearing being erroneously fined (the disrupted cooperation effect). Finally, over-enforcement may prevent beneficial cooperation from starting given the threat of being mistakenly fined (the prevented cooperation effect). The results help us understand the negative impact that a hostility tradition in antitrust — which is more likely for inexperienced regimes and regimes with low standards of evidence — and the resulting type I enforcement errors can have on social welfare when applied to the regulation of horizontal agreements. Additional interpretations are discussed in light of leniency programs for corruption and compliance policies for antitrust violations. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2016 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2016.11.003 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2016.11.003 https://rujec.org/article/27976/ https://rujec.org/article/27976/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2016.11.004 2016-11-30 rujec

Present at the confusion Nellis,John Soviet Union Russia economic transition enterprise reform privatization Russian Journal of Economics 2(4): 402-429 By the fall of 1990 the economic position of the USSR had deteriorated to the point where the Gorbachev government sought the advice and assistance of the major Western international financial institutions: the International Monetary Fund, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the World Bank. These IFIs were asked to diagnose the situation and recommend measures to assist in the transition from plan to market. The reform of industrial and manufacturing enterprises was a key issue among the many analyzed. This article's author, from the World Bank, worked on the enterprise reform team. Drawing on extensive notes from 1990 and 1991 interviews with Soviet and Russian officials, reformers and enterprise managers, this article portrays in detail the extent of the economic — and political — dislocation of the Soviet Union in 1990, the acutely uncertain policy and legal environments in which enterprise managers and government overseers tried to function, and the various and sometimes desperate means by which those in the enterprise sector struggled to position themselves for survival in the newly emerging economy. A major theme is the widespread but ultimately fruitless effort on the part of the Soviet and then Russian reformers to find a gradualist, minimally painful way to carry out the transition of enterprises to market operations. One result of that failure was the much-criticized Russian privatization program. The conclusion is that for political as much as economic reasons, the pace of enterprise reform adopted was unavoidable. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2016 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2016.11.004 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2016.11.004 https://rujec.org/article/27977/ https://rujec.org/article/27977/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2017.02.001 2017-02-28 rujec

State-owned enterprises in the Russian market: Ownership structure and their role in the economy Abramov,Alexander Radygin,Alexander D. Chernova,Maria state ownership state-owned enterprises privatization capitalization private companies direct ownership indirect ownership Russian Journal of Economics 3(1): 1-23 This article analyzes the ownership structure of state-owned companies and their role in the Russian economy. Using a sample of 114 of the largest Russian companies, we estimated direct and indirect state participation as a percentage of shareholdings for direct and indirect federal property during the time period of 2006–2014. We used two methods to estimate the role of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), which allowed us to compare our results with OECD and Rosstat statistics for a broader sample of Russian companies owned by the public sector. This study revealed a decline in SOEs’ share in the capitalization of the Russian stock market and a slight increase in their share of total revenues and employment. The results indicated that public SOEs demonstrated significantly higher productivity compared to non-public SOEs and private companies had a distinct advantage in productivity compared with public SOEs. Despite the significant advantages in productivity of private companies over the SOEs, over a 9-year period, we observed that this gap narrowed. This may be due to conditions of high financial volatility and stagnation of the economy that result in certain advantages for SOEs in terms of access to sources of long-term funding and other forms of state support. However, SOEs with indirect state control experienced a rapid growth in revenue and productivity compared to other firms. This may indicate the presence of a specific stock selection mechanism for transferring more effective SOEs from direct state ownership to indirect control as an alternative to privatization. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2017 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2017.02.001 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.02.001 https://rujec.org/article/27978/ https://rujec.org/article/27978/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2017.02.002 2017-02-28 rujec

Positive collaboration: Factors and mechanisms of evolution Polterovich,Victor coordination positive and negative collaboration golden rule of morality transaction costs tolerance cosmopolitanism altruism radius of trust catching-up development Russian Journal of Economics 3(1): 24-41 This article proposes that two types of collaboration can be distinguished: a positive collaboration (not directed against third parties) and negative collaboration. I consider the hypothesis that in the process of social development, the transaction costs ratio of the three main types of coordination — competition, power, and collaboration — is changing in favor of the latter. The article examines the mechanisms that are responsible for the implementation of this tendency and attempts to explain its nonmonotonicity. It is shown that the strengthening role of positive collaboration is largely explained by cultural changes, including the enhancement of tolerance culture, spread of cosmopolitanism and altruism, and increase in the planning horizon as well as trust radius. I demonstrate the importance of the institutions that support positive collaboration in the process of catching-up development; it is shown that shock reforms could lead to the formation of negative collaboration mechanisms. A program of interdisciplinary research is outlined for the further development of these ideas. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2017 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2017.02.002 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.02.002 https://rujec.org/article/27980/ https://rujec.org/article/27980/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2017.02.003 2017-02-28 rujec

Income inequality revisited 60 years later: Piketty vs Kuznets Lyubimov,Ivan income inequality economic growth labor income economic rents CEOs Russian Journal of Economics 3(1): 42-53 This paper compares two popular views on the evolution of income inequality. The article by Simon Kuznets, which was published in American Economic Review in 1955, considers inequality as a byproduct of economic growth and suggests that a relatively rich economy should also be less unequal. In contrast, Thomas Piketty indicates that inequality is progressing, and an internationally coordinated policy is required to bring inequality under control. My paper applies the arguments of Kuznets and Piketty to the problem of income inequality in modern Russia. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2017 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2017.02.003 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.02.003 https://rujec.org/article/27981/ https://rujec.org/article/27981/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2017.02.004 2017-02-28 rujec

Eurasian Economic Union: Current state and preliminary results Vinokurov,Evgeny Y. Eurasian Economic Union regional integration customs union common market non-tariff barriers free trade area foreign direct investments Russian Journal of Economics 3(1): 54-70 This paper assesses the current results of the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). On the one hand, the EAEU has not been an impeccable “success story”. The EAEU's progress has slowed after initial rapid progress. On the other hand, it has achieved much. The EAEU is best viewed not as an exception to general rules of regional economic integration, but rather as a functioning customs union with its own successes and stumbling blocks, enriched by several additional quite developed areas of economic integration. This paper reviews the state of Eurasian institutions, the single market for goods and services, the state of mutual trade and investment flows among member states, ongoing work to eliminate non-tariff barriers, problems pertaining to the efficient coordination of macroeconomic policies, progress toward establishing an EAEU network of free trade areas, the state of the common labor market, and the dynamics of public opinion relative to Eurasian integration in the five member states. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2017 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2017.02.004 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.02.004 https://rujec.org/article/27982/ https://rujec.org/article/27982/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2017.02.005 2017-02-28 rujec

Investment drought in the Russian economy: Structural characteristics and turnaround perspectives Berezinskaya,Olga fixed capital investments investment drought Russian Journal of Economics 3(1): 71-82 The investment drought of 2013–2015 in Russia is the first prolonged period of no capital investment growth in the last 17 years. After stagnation in 2013–2014, fixed capital investments in real terms have systemically lagged behind industrial output growth and GDP. Lack of capital expenditures not only lowers demand and inhibits growth of construction, machinery, industrial production and the economy as a whole, but also preserves existing structural imbalances and technological gaps in the Russian economy. The duration of investment drought and its significant disincentivizing effect on current and expected growth of the Russian economy suggest the importance of analyzing structural characteristics of the investment process and triggers of capital investment. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2017 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2017.02.005 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.02.005 https://rujec.org/article/27983/ https://rujec.org/article/27983/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2017.02.006 2017-02-28 rujec

Wage discrimination against foreign workers in Russia Vakulenko,Elena Leukhin,Roman discrimination Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition international labor migration Russian Journal of Economics 3(1): 83-100 We try to determine with the help of the Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition technique whether foreign workers are discriminated against in Russia. We use the Russian Ministry of Labor (Rostrud) data on migrants’ applications and the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS, provided by the Higher School of Economics) for the period 2009–2013. We show that there is significant discrimination against foreign workers. The average salary of Russian workers with the same level of productivity as migrants exceeds migrants’ average salary by 40%. The industries in which the workers are employed have made most substantial contribution to the discrimination gap. Moreover, there is evidence that the lower salaries of foreign workers do not reduce the salaries of Russians employed in similar positions. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2017 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2017.02.006 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.02.006 https://rujec.org/article/27984/ https://rujec.org/article/27984/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2017.02.007 2017-02-28 rujec

Calendar anomalies in the Russian stock market Maria Caporale,Guglielmo Zakirova,Valentina calendar effects Russian stock market transaction costs Russian Journal of Economics 3(1): 101-108 This research note investigates whether or not calendar anomalies (such as the January, day-of-the-week and turn-of-the-month effects) characterize the Russian stock market, which could be interpreted as evidence against market efficiency. Specifically, OLS, GARCH, EGARCH and TGARCH models are estimated using daily data for the MICEX market index over the period Sept. 1997–Apr. 2016. The empirical results show the importance of taking into account transactions costs (proxied by the bid-ask spreads): once these are incorporated into the analysis, calendar anomalies disappear, and therefore, there is no evidence of exploitable profit opportunities based on them that would be inconsistent with market efficiency. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2017 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2017.02.007 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.02.007 https://rujec.org/article/27979/ https://rujec.org/article/27979/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2017.06.001 2017-05-31 rujec

Lessons in stabilization and prospects for growth: Russia's economic policy in 2016 Mau,Vladimir economic policy structural crisis new model of growth Russia Russian Journal of Economics 3(2): 109-128 Economic growth is a primary challenge of the political agenda of leading countries, including Russia. This study discusses existing hypotheses that are related to “secular stagnation” and the “productivity paradox”, which include the demand side of the problem (cyclical factors), special features of technological innovations (technological factors), anti-crisis policy that prevents “creative destruction” (political factors), and the irrelevance of the GDP measurement (statistical problems). Limits to growth contribute to a new global policy trend and the emerging of populism; this study discusses the prospects of the transformation from political populism to economic populism. Global challenges provide the basis for a more extensive analysis of Russian economic development and, particularly, the results of the 2015–2016 anti-crisis policy, which helped the Russian economy to adapt to new economic realities of the post-crisis world. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2017 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2017.06.001 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.06.001 https://rujec.org/article/27985/ https://rujec.org/article/27985/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2017.06.002 2017-05-31 rujec

State ownership and efficiency characteristics Abramov,Alexander Radygin,Alexander D. Entov,Revold M. Chernova,Maria state-owned enterprises private companies performance labor productivity profitability privatization mixed ownership direct and indirect state ownership Russian Journal of Economics 3(2): 129-157 This study examines the influence of state participation in the ownership structure of companies on their financial efficiency using a sample of 114 largest companies in Russia. As an indirect indicator of efficiency, we used a variety of financial indicators: revenue per employee (gross margin), return on equity, profit margin and debt burden. The effects of direct and indirect state ownership are considered separately. Using econometric analysis, we conclude that the dominance of the block of shares owned by the state has a negative effect on the performance characteristics, and its increase is associated with an increase in the debt burden of the companies. According to our criteria, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) perform worse on average than private companies. The mechanism of how changes in the “real sector” affect profitability is examined particularly closely. The study shows that a change in the profitability of private companies is characterized by a significant dependence on the movement of labor productivity characteristics. At the same time, for SOEs, a similar correlation was not revealed. These companies demonstrated no visible relationship between their profitability and performance characteristics. The study shows that increases in the size of direct government ownership lead to lower labor productivity and profitability; the impact of indirect ownership is, seemingly, more complicated. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2017 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2017.06.002 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.06.002 https://rujec.org/article/27986/ https://rujec.org/article/27986/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2017.06.003 2017-05-31 rujec

Testing and interpreting uncovered interest parity in Russia Vasilyev,Dmitry Busygin,Vladimir Busygin,Sergey interest parity forward premium puzzle carry trade risk premium foreign exchange reserves Russian Journal of Economics 3(2): 158-173 The failure of uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) is a well-known phenomenon of the last thirty years. UIP failure is more prominent in advanced economies than in emerging market economies. Typically, UIP estimation for an advanced economy generates a negative coefficient, meaning that a higher interest rate in advanced economy A will result in the appreciation of economy A's exchange rate. For emerging market economies, higher interest rates usually correspond to future depreciation, although this depreciation is not sufficient for UIP to hold. This paper shows that UIP holds in Russia better than in other emerging market economies when the UIP equation accounts for a constant risk premium. Consequently, there is no forward premium puzzle for Russian data for 2001–2014. To determine the results for Russia and to compare them with the results for other countries, we estimate UIP first for Russia and then for advanced and emerging market economies using seemingly unrelated regressions and panel data analysis. By comparing the profitability of static and dynamic carry trade strategies, we also confirm that in emerging market economies, risk premiums are often constant, whereas in advanced economies, risk premiums are almost always volatile. This may explain why UIP holds better in emerging market economies. It also enables us to formulate a hypothesis that macroeconomic policies of emerging market economies (e.g., the accumulation of large foreign exchange reserves) stabilize risk premiums. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2017 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2017.06.003 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.06.003 https://rujec.org/article/27987/ https://rujec.org/article/27987/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2017.06.004 2017-05-31 rujec

Industrial clusters in Russia: The development of special economic zones and industrial parks Sosnovskikh,Sergey industrial cluster special economic zone industrial park Russia state competition collaboration innovation Russian Journal of Economics 3(2): 174-199 This paper investigates the process of developing and implementing special economic zones (SEZs) and industrial parks in Russia. Governments commonly use SEZ policies to develop and diversify exports, create jobs and launch technology/knowledge sharing. The industrial cluster concept is based on the significance of rivalry and supplier networks within the cluster, the combination of geographical specificities and government policies that lead to innovation and productivity growth. This study reveals that in Russia the government′s approach in developing these initiatives has strongly interfered with business activities and prevented the vital competitive and collaborative behavior of firms within these economic zones. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2017 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2017.06.004 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.06.004 https://rujec.org/article/27988/ https://rujec.org/article/27988/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2017.06.005 2017-05-31 rujec

Discrete institutional alternatives: Theoretical and policy issues (Celebrating the 80th anniversary of Ronald Coase's “Nature of the Firm”) Shastitko,Andrey E. Ménard,Claude transactions institutions discrete institutional alternatives contracts market failures Russian Journal of Economics 3(2): 200-220 This paper addresses the comparative analysis of discrete institutional alternatives in organizing transactions among distinct economic entities. The theoretical framework for understanding this issue was introduced by Ronald Coase 80 years ago. Following this seminal contribution, a standard theoretical distinction now exists between the institutionally embedded set of economic exchanges (the transactions) and the institutional settings within which these transactions are organized, firms and markets being the epitomized polar cases. On the normative side, this approach facilitated better understanding of failures and flaws in the organization of numerous transactions and of how to fix them. Three examples are provided to illustrate the issues at stake: contracting on large diameter pipes for PJSC “Gazprom” infrastructure projects, contracting in commercial real estate, and determining governance mechanisms for companies facing significant switching costs in highly concentrated markets. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2017 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2017.06.005 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.06.005 https://rujec.org/article/27989/ https://rujec.org/article/27989/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2017.09.001 2017-08-31 rujec

Fiscal maneuver and restructuring of the Russian economy Kudrin,Alexey L. Sokolov,Ilya fiscal policy fiscal maneuver state budget productive expenditures budget expenditures structure structural reforms economic growth Russian Journal of Economics 3(3): 221-239 The paper discusses fiscal policy parameters through 2024. The suggested way to ensure long-term fiscal stability is stabilizing both the general government revenues and expenditures as percentages of GDP at levels differing by the public debt service payments and then applying a new version of the fiscal rule. The redistribution of fiscal spending from unproductive to productive areas (primarily investment in human and physical capital) is considered to boost economic growth. The possible use of additional spending on education, public health, and transport systems is presented, as is the optimization of expenditures in nonproductive areas. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2017 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2017.09.001 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.09.001 https://rujec.org/article/27990/ https://rujec.org/article/27990/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2017.09.002 2017-08-31 rujec

Russian manufacturing production capacity: Primary trends and structural characteristics Salnikov,Vladimir Galimov,Dmitry Mikheeva,Olga Gnidchenko,Andrey Rybalka,Alexey production capacity manufacturing capacity utilization rate capital investments fixed assets Russian economy Russian Journal of Economics 3(3): 240-262 This paper estimates the capacity utilization rate for Russian manufacturing. We also propose a way to build continuous production capacity time series and indicators to describe the basic characteristics of production capacity. The data come from form 1-natura-BM of the Russian Federal State Statistics Service. Our findings on the trends and structural characteristics of production capacity are shown to be significant for economic policy since we found that in recent years capacities utilization rate in Russian manufacturing industry has been not extremely high and that there is a strong correlation not only between capacities utilization rate and inflation rate but between capacities utilization rate and capacities commissioning intensity as well. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2017 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2017.09.002 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.09.002 https://rujec.org/article/27991/ https://rujec.org/article/27991/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2017.09.003 2017-08-31 rujec

Assessment of gross urban product in Russian cities and its contribution to Russian GDP in 2000–2015 Kosareva,Nadezhda Polidi,Tatyana gross urban product economic growth gross domestic product urban economics Russian Journal of Economics 3(3): 263-279 The article presents a new methodology for estimating gross urban product (the gross domestic product by city or metropolitan level) in Russia under extremely low statistical data availability about economy performance at the local level. These estimates provide new analytical instruments for assessing disparities in economic development between more than 1,000 Russian cities and other areas, and cities’ contributions to GDP as well as for comparing indicators of Russian cities with those of foreign countries. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2017 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2017.09.003 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.09.003 https://rujec.org/article/27992/ https://rujec.org/article/27992/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2017.09.004 2017-08-31 rujec

Customs unions, currency crises, and monetary policy coordination: The case of the Eurasian Economic Union Vinokurov,Evgeny Y. Demidenko,Mikhail Korshunov,Dmitry Kovacs,Mihaly customs union monetary policy macroeconomic policy coordination Eurasian Economic Union monetary union Russian Journal of Economics 3(3): 280-295 After achieving substantial progress in establishing a common customs territory and regulations, customs unions face potential disruptions due to a lack of monetary policy coordination. These disruptions might appear in the form of currency shocks and the ensuing trade conflicts. We approach this issue by looking at the case of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The volatility of national currencies in 2014–2015 resulted in sizable shifts in competitiveness, culminating in a currency crisis in some member states. This raises the questions of how to gradually achieve a more coordinated monetary policy, what monetary policy options are available, and what would be their relative impact on macroeconomic stability. Using a set of modeling tools and econometric models, we review three monetary regimes, which represent moves from fully independent exchange rate policy through increased policy coordination to joint exchange rate setting. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2017 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2017.09.004 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.09.004 https://rujec.org/article/27993/ https://rujec.org/article/27993/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2017.09.005 2017-08-31 rujec

Central Asia — twenty-five years after the breakup of the USSR Batsaikhan,Uuriintuya Dabrowski,Marek Central Asia post-communism transition economic policy analysis Russian Journal of Economics 3(3): 296-320 Central Asia consists of five culturally and ethnically diverse countries that have followed different paths to political and economic transformation in the past 25 years since achieving independence from the Soviet Union. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have in relative terms made strides in market reforms, while Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have not yet completed their transitions to market economies. Tajikistan represents an intermediate case. After experiencing more than a decade of growth based on hydrocarbon booms, Central Asian countries are faced with increasing challenges resulting from falling commodity prices, declining trade and lower migrant remittances. The main policy challenge is to move away from commodity-based growth strategies to market-oriented diversification and adoption of a broad spectrum of economic, institutional and political reforms. The major obstacles to political reform and structural diversification in the five Central Asian economies are internal and external geopolitical factors and deeply embedded institutional weaknesses within each country, particularly in areas where economic management interacts with authoritarian political systems and imperfect legal institutions. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2017 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2017.09.005 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.09.005 https://rujec.org/article/27994/ https://rujec.org/article/27994/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2017.09.006 2017-08-31 rujec

Financial development and economic growth nexus in Russia Ono,Shigeki financial development economic growth causality VAR Russia Russian Journal of Economics 3(3): 321-332 This paper examines the finance-growth nexus in Russia with the vector autoregression model, taking oil prices and foreign exchange rates into account. The analyzed period is from 1999 through 2008 (Subperiod 1) and from 2009 through 2014 (Subperiod 2). The results for Subperiod 1 suggest that there is causality from economic growth to money supply and bank lending, which implies demand-following responses. The results for Subperiod 2 show that economic growth Granger causes bank lending while there is no causality from money supply to economic growth, which could be related to the dramatic decrease in the amount of intervention in foreign exchange markets. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2017 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2017.09.006 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.09.006 https://rujec.org/article/27995/ https://rujec.org/article/27995/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2017.12.001 2017-11-30 rujec

The Russian economy in comparative perspective Dabrowski,Marek Russian Journal of Economics 3(4): 333-335 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2017 Foreword text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2017.12.001 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.12.001 https://rujec.org/article/27996/ https://rujec.org/article/27996/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2017.12.002 2017-11-30 rujec

Revolutions and evolutions in Russia: In search of a solution to the path dependence problem Auzan,Alexander institutions growth cultural traits institutional reform revolution Russian Journal of Economics 3(4): 336-347 Russian history demonstrates its propensity to “revolving motions,” particularly in regard to the institutions of serfdom and autocracy, thus illustrating the existence of path dependence. Over time, Russia attempted to leave the inefficient development trajectory through two alternative modalities: revolution and evolution. However, the goals of revolutions are typically specific. As such, the primary vector of transition (after the revolutions of 1991 and 1993) was directed at overcoming the shortage economy and moving towards a consumer society, rather than at building a market economy and democratic society. In Russia, the social contract concept evolved since 2000, and included a sequence of three different formulations: “taxes in exchange for order” were announced, “loyalty in exchange for stability” de facto implemented, and “constrained consumption in exchange for belonging to the superpower” emerged after 2014. I thus argue that Russia's development strongly requires a long-term strategy focus on changing informal institutions and the social contract, so that institutional reforms and new incentives can be put in place. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2017 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2017.12.002 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.12.002 https://rujec.org/article/27997/ https://rujec.org/article/27997/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2017.12.003 2017-11-30 rujec

Sources of long run economic growth in Russia before and after the global financial crisis Voskoboynikov,Ilya B. Russia industry growth accounting global financial crisis World KLEMS Russian Journal of Economics 3(4): 348-365 Although productivity decline in the global economy was observed before 2008, the global financial crisis of 2008 stimulated study of its source. In this context, recent literature mentions inefficient investments in machinery, human capital, and organizational processes. This can include skill mismatch and the lack of technology diffusion from advanced to emerging industries and firms. To what extent is this global view helpful in understanding recent productivity decline in the Russian economy? The present study reports that at least some of these sources can be observed in Russia as well. Using conventional industry growth accounting, it compares pre- and post-crisis sources of growth for the Russian economy. Specifically, it presents aggregate labor productivity growth as the sum of capital intensity and total factor productivity (TFP) growth in industries, and the contribution of labor reallocation between industries. It shows that the stagnation of 2008–2014 is more the result of the TFP decline and the deterioration of the allocation of labor than the lack of capital input. Moreover, the TFP decline started in Russia a few years before the crisis, as it did in major global economies, such as the United States, OECD countries, China, and Brazil. At the same time, relatively stable capital intensity made the Russian pattern to some degree similar to resource abundant Australia and Canada. Furthermore, the contribution of information and communications technology capital to labor productivity growth in Russia declined after 2008, which could have also hampered technology diffusion. Finally, the structure of the flow of capital services in Russia changed after 2008. Before the crisis, the contribution of machinery and equipment dominated, while after the crisis, construction provided the lion's share of capital input. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2017 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2017.12.003 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.12.003 https://rujec.org/article/27998/ https://rujec.org/article/27998/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2017.12.004 2017-11-30 rujec

Breaking monetary policy rules in Russia Korhonen,Iikka Nuutilainen,Riikka monetary policy rule Taylor rule McCallum rule Russia inflation Russian Journal of Economics 3(4): 366-378 This study estimates whether the monetary policy rules of Bank of Russia have changed recently. Russia has moved towards inflation targeting over the past years, which is reflected in our empirical estimations. We start by estimating various monetary policy rules for Russia, concluding that a variant of the Taylor rule depicts Bank of Russia's monetary policy over the past decade well. Moreover, there have been two clear breaks in the coefficients of the estimated monetary policy rule, possibly signifying a shift towards traditional inflation targeting and also the current recent economic turbulence. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2017 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2017.12.004 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.12.004 https://rujec.org/article/27999/ https://rujec.org/article/27999/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2017.12.005 2017-11-30 rujec

Analysis of the debt burden in Russian economy sectors Popova,Svetlana Karlova,Nataliya Ponomarenko,Alexey Deryugina,Elena debt burden capital structure sector analysis microdata of Russian companies emerging markets Russian Journal of Economics 3(4): 379-410 This paper provides an analysis of the debt burden of Russian companies and raises the issue of debt-level heterogeneity across economic sectors. To identify the causes of this heterogeneity, it estimates a regression model that includes both fundamental explanatory variables of companies and industry fixed effects. The results of the analysis demonstrate that standard variables, such as profitability, company size, asset turnover, and fixed-asset turnover ratio have a strong statistical significance. However, these do not fully explain the variation in the debt levels of companies in different sectors. According to model estimation, there are other industry specific factors that produce an imbalance between fundamental factors and companies’ debt levels. An understanding of the formation process and structure of debt burden in individual industries is extremely important for the financial stability of companies and for an effective monetary policy. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2017 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2017.12.005 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.12.005 https://rujec.org/article/28000/ https://rujec.org/article/28000/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2017.12.006 2017-11-30 rujec

Macroeconomic and structural properties of the Russian labor market: A cross-country comparison Gurvich,Evsey T. Vakulenko,Elena Russian labor market cross-country comparative analysis macroeconomic models migration Russian Journal of Economics 3(4): 411-424 We suggest a new way to identify salient features of the Russian labor market. Parameters of basic macroeconomic models pertinent to the Russian labor market are compared to a sample of other countries. We find that estimated values of Okun's coefficient and the elasticity of real wages to labor productivity in Russia are typical for emerging markets. What really distinguishes the labor market is that the elasticity of real wages relative to unemployment in Russia is very high by international standards. The overall conclusion is that the Russian labor market can be characterized by a combination of serious structural problems (such as low employee mobility, the significant size of the shadow sector, etc.) and solid macroeconomic performance, verified by the persistently low rate of unemployment in recent years. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2017 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2017.12.006 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.12.006 https://rujec.org/article/28001/ https://rujec.org/article/28001/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2017.12.007 2017-11-30 rujec

Factors determining intra-regional fiscal decentralization in Russia and the US Alexeev,Michael Mamedov,Arseny fiscal federalism expenditure decentralization Russian economy US economy Russian Journal of Economics 3(4): 425-444 We use panel data for Russia's regions (2005–2013) and the US states (1997–2013) and several different econometric specifications to estimate and compare the determinants of fiscal decentralization in the two countries. We find that while the factors of decentralization in the US states largely conform to existing theoretical predictions, this is not so for Russia, where almost no factors are consistently associated with intraregional fiscal decentralization. Moreover, our results for Russia differ from prior results based on earlier data. We conjecture that the recent weakening of the effects of conventional fiscal decentralization determinants in Russia is due to the decline of democratic institutions in Russia's regions and overall political and economic centralization in the country. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2017 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2017.12.007 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.12.007 https://rujec.org/article/28002/ https://rujec.org/article/28002/download/pdf/ en

10.1016/j.ruje.2017.12.008 2017-11-30 rujec

Multinational companies from transition economies and their outward foreign direct investment Andreff,Wladimir Andreff,Madeleine outward foreign direct investment multinational companies post-communist transition economies investment development path linkage-leverage-learning push factors Russian Journal of Economics 3(4): 445-474 Multinational companies (MNCs) based in 26 post-communist transition economies (PTEs) emerged during the 1990s. Their outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) boomed dramatically from 2000 to 2007 in these countries, and then muddled through the financial crisis and great recession at difference paces on different paths. This difference is revealed in a sample of 15 PTEs for which data are available from 2000 to 2015. Most of these economies appear to be on the brink of moving from the second to the third stage of Dunning's investment development path. The geographical distribution of their OFDI favors host countries located in other PTEs, developed market economies, and tax havens while their industrial structure is more concentrated on services rather than on manufacturing and the primary sector. PTE-based MNCs primarily adopt a strategy of market-seeking OFDI. Econometric testing shows that push factors are major determinants of OFDI. The results demonstrate that OFDI is determined by the home country's level of economic development, the size of its home market, and its rate of growth as well as technological variables: OFDI decreases with an increase in the number of scientists in the home economy and with an increase in the share of high-tech products in overall exports, exhibiting a negative technological gap. A lagged relationship between OFDI and previous inward FDI suggests that Mathews’ linkage-leverage-learning theory is relevant in the case of PTEs. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2017 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.1016/j.ruje.2017.12.008 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.12.008 https://rujec.org/article/28003/ https://rujec.org/article/28003/download/pdf/ en

10.3897/j.ruje.4.26012 2018-04-20 rujec

Austrian economics and its reception in different countries Avtonomov,Vladimir S. n/a Russian Journal of Economics 4(1): 1-7 n/a info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2018 Foreword text/html info:doi:10.3897/j.ruje.4.26012 https://doi.org/10.3897/j.ruje.4.26012 https://rujec.org/article/26012/ https://rujec.org/article/26012/download/pdf/ en

10.3897/j.ruje.4.26001 2018-04-20 rujec

From Karl Menger to Charles Menger? How Austrian economics (hardly) spread in France Campagnolo,Gilles Austrian School of Economics Hayek Friedrich Menger Carl Simiand François productive reception transfer of theories in the social sciences. Russian Journal of Economics 4(1): 8-30 The father of the “Austrian” Marginalist revolution and founder of the so-called “Austrian School of economics”, Carl Menger, had a mixed reception during different periods of development of French economics. Somewhat welcomed in the early days, he was rather forgotten later on. Even his major works were not published in translation until recently. What is the reason for such a situation? Criticisms of classical political economy have to be understood in their French context. In comparison to other countries, this paper details the case of France, besides showing how later Austrians, such as Friedrich Hayek, found a limited audience. This comparative study of economic ideas in France must start with the reception of the views of the founder and the role and impact of adopting/adapting or rejecting his views by French scholars. What place did they find in French academia? From Carl Menger to a “Frenchified” Charles Menger, how was Austrian economic thought disseminated in France? This essay starts by recalling the Belle-Époque and an astonishing letter by Charles Rist for the Jubiläum of Menger, in which he deplored the lack of translation of the latter’s works. The Austrian School in France is then discussed as pure economics replaces political economy in the Interwar period, with the 1938 Paris Congress of “liberal thinkers,” as the Vienna Circle became known, also comparing issues in philosophy. The paper considers how Austrian theories of “pure science” were received in Paris from the Vienna of the 1900s, at a time of ”Crossroads,” to the present day, through the Postwar and Cold War, until a revival since the 1990s and a rethinking of economic ideas after 2008. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2018 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.3897/j.ruje.4.26001 https://doi.org/10.3897/j.ruje.4.26001 https://rujec.org/article/26001/ https://rujec.org/article/26001/download/pdf/ en

10.3897/j.ruje.4.26006 2018-04-23 rujec

The reception of Austrian economics in Italy Magliulo,Antonio Austrian economics Italian economics international spread of economic ideas Russian Journal of Economics 4(1): 65-86 Nowadays the Austrian School enjoys high reputation in Italy: books by Mises, Hayek and other Austrian economists are constantly republished and reviewed with great interest, both inside and outside academic circles. The situation was very different decades ago, when just a few Italian economists devoted attention to the Austrian School. This work studies the reception of Austrian Economics in Italy, from the beginning to our days, so as to bring out, by way of comparison, relevant features of Italian economic culture. We will try to offer just an overview of the entire story, in an attempt to provide useful elements for a deeper analysis of further topics and periods. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2018 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.3897/j.ruje.4.26006 https://doi.org/10.3897/j.ruje.4.26006 https://rujec.org/article/26006/ https://rujec.org/article/26006/download/pdf/ en

10.3897/j.ruje.4.26005 2018-04-23 rujec

The Austrian school in Bulgaria: A history Nenovsky,Nikolay Penchev,Pencho history of economic thought dissemination of economic ideas Austrian school Bulgaria Russian Journal of Economics 4(1): 44-64 The main goal of this study is to highlight the acceptance, dissemination, interpretation, criticism and make some attempts at contributing to Austrian economics made in Bulgaria during the last 120 years. We consider some of the main characteristics of the Austrian school, such as subjectivism and marginalism, as basic components of the economic thought in Bulgaria and as incentives for the development of some original theoretical contributions. Even during the first few years of Communist regime (1944–1989), with its Marxist monopoly over intellectual life, the Austrian school had some impact on the economic thought in the country. Subsequent to the collapse of Communism, there was a sort of a Renaissance and rediscovery of this school. Another contribution of our study is that it illustrates the adaptability and spontaneous evolution of ideas in a different and sometimes hostile environment. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2018 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.3897/j.ruje.4.26005 https://doi.org/10.3897/j.ruje.4.26005 https://rujec.org/article/26005/ https://rujec.org/article/26005/download/pdf/ en

10.3897/j.ruje.4.26002 2018-04-23 rujec

The Austrian school of economics in Russia: From criticism and rejection to absorption and adoption Avtonomov,Vladimir S. Makasheva,Natalia Austrian school of economics Marginal Revolution Marxism Russian economic thought marginal utility theory Russian Journal of Economics 4(1): 31-43 Dissemination and adoption of Western economic ideas in Russia have never been a simple process, always bearing marks of the socio-political and ideological circumstances of the country and inner processes in economics, as well as marks of the national intellectual tradition in general. It is not surprising that the history of Austrian economics in Russia was akin to a long road with many windings and turns. We can distinguish three different periods, or waves, each of them rather complex: from the 1890s until the late 1920s (introduction and, to a certain degree, adoption and criticism), from the beginning of the 1930s until the mid-1980s (hostile attitude and ignorance), and from the mid-1980s onwards (rediscovery, dissemination, and adoption). info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2018 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.3897/j.ruje.4.26002 https://doi.org/10.3897/j.ruje.4.26002 https://rujec.org/article/26002/ https://rujec.org/article/26002/download/pdf/ en

10.3897/j.ruje.4.27743 2018-06-30 rujec

Russian economic policy: Challenges of growth Mau,Vladimir economic policy structural crisis social state new model of growth Russia Russian Journal of Economics 4(2): 87-107 The paper discusses the main challenges of Russian economy at the turning period from contraction to growth. The analysis is based on comparison of global economic trends and special features of Russian performance. Among global problems, it concentrates on prospects of “non-inflation growth”, perspectives of global currencies and the role of cryptocurrencies, central banks independence and their role in economic growth stimulation, new tasks and patterns of government regulation, inequality and growth. In the Russian case, the key topics are prospects of macroeconomic stimulation of growth, inflation targeting, new fiscal rule, social dynamics and new challenges to welfare state. The paper concludes that the main obstacles for economic growth in Russia are concentrated in the non-economic area. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2018 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.3897/j.ruje.4.27743 https://doi.org/10.3897/j.ruje.4.27743 https://rujec.org/article/27743/ https://rujec.org/article/27743/download/pdf/ en

10.3897/j.ruje.4.27741 2018-06-30 rujec

Fiscal federalism and regional performance in Russia Di Bella,Gabriel Dynnikova,Oksana Grigoli,Francesco convergence federalism regional policies Russia transfers Russian Journal of Economics 4(2): 108-132 Sound regional policies are essential for balanced and sustained economic growth. The interaction of federal and regional policies with cross-regional structural differences affects human and physical capital formation, the business climate, private investment, market depth, and competition. This paper summarizes the main elements of Russia’s fiscal federalism, describes the channels through which it operates, and assesses the effectiveness of regional transfers in reducing regional disparities. The results suggest that federal transfers to regions contributed to reducing disparities arising from heterogeneous regional tax bases and fiscal revenues. This allowed regions with initially lower per capita income to increase human and physical capital at higher rates. There is little evidence for transfers contributing to increased cross-regional growth synchronization. The results also suggest that federal transfers did not significantly improve regional fiscal sustainability, a conclusion that is supported by the lack of convergence in per capita real income across Russian regions in the last 15 years. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2018 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.3897/j.ruje.4.27741 https://doi.org/10.3897/j.ruje.4.27741 https://rujec.org/article/27741/ https://rujec.org/article/27741/download/pdf/ en

10.3897/j.ruje.4.27737 2018-06-30 rujec

Increase of banks’ credit risks forecasting power by the usage of the set of alternative models Karminsky,Alexander M. Khromova,Ella banks credit ratings probability of default ordered logit models ordered probit models rating agencies Russian Journal of Economics 4(2): 155-174 The paper is aimed at comparing the divergence of existing credit risk models and creating a synergic model with superior forecasting power based on a rating model and probability of default model of Russian banks. The paper demonstrates that rating models, if applied alone, tend to overestimate an instability of a bank, whereas probability of default models give underestimated results. As a result of the assigning of optimal weights and monotonic transformations to these models, the new synergic model of banks’ credit risks with higher forecasting power (predicted 44% of precise estimates) was obtained. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2018 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.3897/j.ruje.4.27737 https://doi.org/10.3897/j.ruje.4.27737 https://rujec.org/article/27737/ https://rujec.org/article/27737/download/pdf/ en

10.3897/j.ruje.4.27726 2018-06-30 rujec

Old wine and new bottles: A critical appraisal of the middle-income trap in BRICS countries Hartwell,Christopher A. middle income trap growth BRICS institutions total factor productivity Russian Journal of Economics 4(2): 133-154 The idea of a middle-income trap is now over a decade old and continues to be applied to growth paths which have not been self-sustaining. With the bulk of emerging markets now approaching middle-income status, and given the reality of slower growth for many countries (and the policy recommendations that currently exist for overcoming this problem), is the middle-income trap still a relevant framework? Using reference to the BRICS countries, the key finding of this analysis is that the middle-income trap conceptualization is of little value-added, as fundamentals still matter, especially in relation to macroeconomic stability. Similarly, we note that “quality” institutions are necessary, both political and economic, including (smaller) size of government and property rights. The “trap” as currently formulated is thus nothing new or particularly relevant, as it repackages some familiar structural issues while avoiding other crucial ones. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2018 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.3897/j.ruje.4.27726 https://doi.org/10.3897/j.ruje.4.27726 https://rujec.org/article/27726/ https://rujec.org/article/27726/download/pdf/ en

10.3897/j.ruje.4.27031 2018-06-30 rujec

The curse of antitrust facing bilateral monopoly: Is regulation hopeless? Shastitko,Andrey E. Ménard,Claude Pavlova,Natalia antitrust policy bilateral monopoly hybrid governance switching costs critical transactions bargaining power. Russian Journal of Economics 4(2): 175-196 This paper is about the challenges that antitrust authorities face when dealing with bilateral monopolies. The curse of antitrust refers to traps threatening the efficient applicability of antitrust policies in these situations. Standard theories diverge about the attainability of equilibrium under bilateral monopolies but share skepticism about its efficiency if it ever exists. We suggest a different approach, based on transaction cost theory. First, since bilateral monopolies often develop in the upper segment of value chains, misalignment between parties may generate negative externalities. Second, if parties reach an agreement, the impact of the governance mechanism implemented must be assessed beyond the usual parameters of prices and quantities. Indeed, the risk of negative externalities in the absence of appropriate governance increases dramatically when “critical transactions” are at stake. With vertical integration prohibited, second-best alternatives in which antitrust authorities leave room for innovative hybrid governance may allow internalizing externalities while avoiding high switching costs. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2018 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.3897/j.ruje.4.27031 https://doi.org/10.3897/j.ruje.4.27031 https://rujec.org/article/27031/ https://rujec.org/article/27031/download/pdf/ en

10.3897/j.ruje.4.30163 2018-10-09 rujec

Russian budget structure efficiency: Empirical study Kudrin,Alexey L. Knobel,Alexander VAR time series fiscal policy budget maneuver national budget structure of government economic growth. Russian Journal of Economics 4(3): 197-214 This paper investigates the economic efficiency of Russian public expenditures in 2002–2016 by estimation of their multiplicative impact on the GDP level and economic growth. We use the empirical methodology based on Corsetti et al. (2012). We estimate a number of fiscal multipliers: on national security, law-enforcement activity, national defense, education, health care and sport and road infrastructure. For assessing the influence of budget structure on long-term economic growth rates, we estimate the SVAR model in which GDP growth is a structural variable. The research shows a positive influence of budgetary resources redistribution from non-productive government expenditures to productive ones on economic development. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2018 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.3897/j.ruje.4.30163 https://doi.org/10.3897/j.ruje.4.30163 https://rujec.org/article/30163/ https://rujec.org/article/30163/download/pdf/ en

10.3897/j.ruje.4.30166 2018-10-09 rujec

A new stage of demographic change: A warning for economists Vishnevsky (1935-2021),Anatoly Shcherbakova,Ekaterina Russia demographic changes population growth natural increase net migration population ageing ageing of the labor force retirement age. Russian Journal of Economics 4(3): 229-248 The current stage of demographic changes in all countries that have experienced a demographic transition is characterized by two main features: (1) cessation of population growth; (2) a progressive increase in the total dependency ratio, which until recently, despite the long-run population ageing, was declining. Both of these features are unfavorable from the economic point of view. In Russia, the situation is aggravated by the peculiarities of the population pyramid, heavily deformed by the social and military upheavals of the 20th century. The article shows that, for a long time, the demographic trends in Russia favored its economic development, but now the country is entering a long period of unfavorable demographic changes. The cessation of growth of the Russian population, the reduction in the working-age population and its ageing and the increase in the dependency ratio will have a deterrent effect on economic development and, at the same time, make it more difficult to solve social problems. In particular, these factors will create greater problems for the pension system for people older than working age. The issue of using the migration resource to mitigate the negative consequences of demographic changes is discussed. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2018 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.3897/j.ruje.4.30166 https://doi.org/10.3897/j.ruje.4.30166 https://rujec.org/article/30166/ https://rujec.org/article/30166/download/pdf/ en

10.3897/j.ruje.4.28482 2018-10-09 rujec

The environmental Kuznets curve in the case of Russia Ketenci,Natalya CO2 emissions environment Kuznets curve cointegration Russia. Russian Journal of Economics 4(3): 249-265 This study explores the relationships between carbon emissions and their main determinants such as energy consumption, real income, international trade, level of education and level of urbanization in the Russian Federation, employing data for the period 1991–2016. Support for the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis is found in this study, stating that environment pollution decreases in Russia after income achieves a certain threshold. The ARDL bounds test is employed in order to estimate short-run and long-run relationships in the estimated model. Energy consumption, real income, education and urbanization levels are found to be significant determinants of carbon emissions, while trade openness does not have an impact. The Granger causality test indicates two-way relationships between carbon emissions and energy use, real income and education. Only a single one-way causality runs from carbon emission to trade and no causality was found between carbon emissions and level of urbanization. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2018 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.3897/j.ruje.4.28482 https://doi.org/10.3897/j.ruje.4.28482 https://rujec.org/article/28482/ https://rujec.org/article/28482/download/pdf/ en

10.3897/j.ruje.4.30170 2018-10-09 rujec

Examining interrelation between global and national income inequalities Dabrowski,Marek income inequality wealth inequality income convergence globalization. Russian Journal of Economics 4(3): 266-284 The last decade brought increasing attention to income and wealth inequalities in advanced economies because of their increase in several countries and negative social and political implications. However, this debate is often limited to the single-country perspective, disregarding decreasing global income inequalities, i.e. inequalities between individuals in the entire world. This paper focuses mainly on the global dimension of the inequality trends but also tries to update statistics on national inequality trends which, contrary to the dominant narrative, seem to go in various directions depending on a concrete country. Finally, an attempt is made to analyze the potential interrelation and trade-off between decreasing global inequalities and increasing national inequalities and the role of globalization, in its various forms, in such a trade-off. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2018 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.3897/j.ruje.4.30170 https://doi.org/10.3897/j.ruje.4.30170 https://rujec.org/article/30170/ https://rujec.org/article/30170/download/pdf/ en

10.3897/j.ruje.4.30171 2018-10-09 rujec

Whither modern economics? Subjective semi-sociological observations Kapeliushnikov,Rostislav econometrics epistemology experiments behavioral economics methodology ideology. Russian Journal of Economics 4(3): 285-304 The paper summarizes main recent sociological, epistemological, methodological and ideological trends in modern economics and tries to evaluate its current state and further perspectives. Special attention has been paid to a change in economists’ methodological ideal: economic science began with trying to become like physics but actually has become like medical statistics. The paper’s general conclusion is that what we are witnessing today in modern economics is simply an ordinary working state rather than a triumph or a crisis. However, that state is not very promising since the period of new large theoretical ideas seems to be over for economics, the new atheoretical tendency in it is becoming stronger and in the very near future, economics is most likely to become more and more interventionist. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2018 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.3897/j.ruje.4.30171 https://doi.org/10.3897/j.ruje.4.30171 https://rujec.org/article/30171/ https://rujec.org/article/30171/download/pdf/ en

10.3897/j.ruje.4.27086 2018-10-09 rujec

The demand for defense spending in Russia: Economic and strategic determinants Kollias,Christos Paleologou,Suzanna-Maria Tzeremes,Panayiotis Tzeremes,Nickolaos Russian defense spending military expenditure GAMMs. Russian Journal of Economics 4(3): 215-228 The allocation of resources to defense and national security is influenced by several factors, both domestic and external. Findings, reported in the relevant empirical literature, suggest that military spending is determined by a cohort of economic, strategic and political factors. This paper estimates a demand function for Russian military expenditure for the period 1992–2015. The results indicate that Russian defense spending is strongly dependent on income from energy exports as well as on the overall performance of the Russian economy. Strategic factors also emerge as significant determinants of such expenditure. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2018 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.3897/j.ruje.4.27086 https://doi.org/10.3897/j.ruje.4.27086 https://rujec.org/article/27086/ https://rujec.org/article/27086/download/pdf/ en

10.3897/j.ruje.4.33617 2018-12-31 rujec

Decomposition of growth rates for the Russian economy Drobyshevsky,Sergey M. Idrisov,Georgy Kaukin,Andrey Pavlov,Pavel Sinelnikov-Murylev,Sergey G. economic growth total factor productivity NAWRU terms of trade business cycle Russian Journal of Economics 4(4): 305-327 In this paper, we present a methodology of GDP growth rate decomposition adapted for the Russian economy. We calculated the indicators for structural unemployment (NAWRU) and total factor productivity in Russia. We estimated the structural, foreign trade and cyclical components of GDP growth rates under various macroeconomic scenarios for the period from 2018 through 2024. The study shows that a significant contribution to growth rates for the period 2018 through 2024 will be made by the sum of the business cycle and random shock component, which, combined with the revitalization of investments in 2017, may indicate the beginning of a new cycle of economic growth in Russia. In the scenarios reviewed, the contribution from the foreign trade component will be negative from 2018 to 2024. The calculations indicate further stagnation of structural growth rates in the Russian economy from 2018 to 2024 at the level of approximately 1.5 p.p. in all of the basic macroeconomic scenarios reviewed. This points to the inexpediency in postponing structural reforms to create conditions for Russia’s economy to achieve growth rates that exceed world averages. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2018 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.3897/j.ruje.4.33617 https://doi.org/10.3897/j.ruje.4.33617 https://rujec.org/article/33617/ https://rujec.org/article/33617/download/pdf/ en

10.3897/j.ruje.4.33619 2018-12-31 rujec

Environmental awareness: The case of climate change Weber,Shlomo Wiesmeth,Hans environmental awareness climate change public goods Kyoto Protocol renewable energies regional economics diversity. Russian Journal of Economics 4(4): 328-345 The extent of provision of a public good often relies on social awareness and public support for it. This applies, in particular, to global reduction of greenhouse gases and its relevance for mitigating climate change. We examine the concept of “public awareness” by introducing a formal model that analyzes efforts to mitigate climate change in a setting with heterogeneous countries. In the theoretical part we examine the Nash equilibrium of the contribution game. The effects of awareness and economic parameters on mitigation efforts can be disentangled, raising the possibility of linking awareness of climate change with economic wealth. The second part provides some empirical observations and offers the rankings of countries regarding awareness for climate change, as well as an empirical relationship between awareness and economic wealth. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2018 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.3897/j.ruje.4.33619 https://doi.org/10.3897/j.ruje.4.33619 https://rujec.org/article/33619/ https://rujec.org/article/33619/download/pdf/ en

10.3897/j.ruje.4.33621 2018-12-31 rujec

Towards a general theory of social and economic development: Evolution of coordination mechanisms Polterovich,Victor inclusive institutions extractive institutions limited access order open access order cycle of emancipation violence rent power competition collaboration industrial revolution welfare state civic culture. Russian Journal of Economics 4(4): 346-385 A new approach to understanding social and economic development is proposed, based on consideration of the evolution of coordination mechanisms. The work consists of two parts. In the first part, a critical analysis of four recently proposed theories of social development, focusing on geographical, institutional or cultural factors, is given. These theories have greatly enriched our understanding of the evolution of society, however, as analysis shows, none of them provides a satisfactory description of the driving forces and mechanisms of this evolution; the main reason is rooted in their common deficiency — monocausality. It is proposed to distinguish between two types of development, catching up and leading. The basic ideas of the theory of catching up development are presented. This approach makes it possible to explain the phenomenon of the “economic miracle” as a result of mutually conditioned changes in culture, institutions, technological progress and well-being in the context of interaction of competition, power and collaboration mechanisms. The second part is devoted to the theory of leading socioeconomic development. It is shown how in Western Europe, as a result of the interaction of the above four factors, specific forms and combinations of the three main mechanisms of coordination — competition, power and collaboration — emerged at each stage of evolution. I emphasize the importance of ideology and the phenomenon of technical progress in the formation of institutions of economic and political competition that contributed to the creation of the welfare state. These changes and economic growth created the conditions for further transformation of civil culture: increasing levels of trust, tolerance, altruism and cosmopolitanism, expanding the planning horizon. The decrease in the level of coercion built into the mechanisms of power and competition are demonstrated as well as the expansion of the role of collaboration. A hypothesis is advanced that the speed of this process depends on geographical factors. The idea of the welfare world is discussed. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2018 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.3897/j.ruje.4.33621 https://doi.org/10.3897/j.ruje.4.33621 https://rujec.org/article/33621/ https://rujec.org/article/33621/download/pdf/ en

10.3897/j.ruje.4.33622 2018-12-31 rujec

Formation of sects in a religious market Bukin,Kirill Levin,Mark religious market strictness of a denomination non-religious community sect. Russian Journal of Economics 4(4): 386-396 This paper is an extension of the recent work by the authors where a simplifying assumption of no costs of entry to the religious market was set. In the present paper, the religious market is regulated in the sense that a sect in order to establish itself in a market has to bear costs of entry. In the case of one official denomination the strict sect attracts less flock, and the monopoly church will acquire more church-goers and even marginally religious people will hesitate between joining the church and staying nonreligious. In case of prohibitively high costs the sect will shrink to zero and the church will take control over almost all population with the remaining small group of nonbelievers. A comparative statics problem in the case of the two official churches was also considered. In stage one of the game these churches choose their position in the strictness interval with the subsequent emergence of sects. The more costly is entry the less populated will be the strict sect and even the moderate sect will turn more liberal with the loss of some of its members. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2018 Research Note text/html info:doi:10.3897/j.ruje.4.33622 https://doi.org/10.3897/j.ruje.4.33622 https://rujec.org/article/33622/ https://rujec.org/article/33622/download/pdf/ en

10.32609/j.ruje.5.35233 2019-04-17 rujec

Structural changes and economic growth in the world economy and Russia Mironov,Valeriy Konovalova,Liudmila economic growth labour productivity structure of economy structural policy Thirlwall’s law Russia Russian Journal of Economics 5(1): 1-26 The article considers the problem of the relationship of structural changes and economic growth in the global economy and Russia in the framework of different methodological approaches. At the same time, the paper provides the analysis of complementarity of economic policy types, which, on the one hand, are aimed at developing the fundamentals of GDP growth (institutions, human capital and macroeconomic stabilization), and on the other hand, at initiating growth (with stable fundamentals) with the help of structural policy measures. In the study of structural changes in the global economy, new forms of policies of this kind have been revealed, in particular aimed at identifying sectors — drivers of economic growth based on a portfolio approach. In a given paper a preliminary version of the model of the Russian economy is provided, using a multisector version of the Thirlwall’s Law. Besides, the authors highlight a number of target parameters of indicators of competitiveness of the sectors of the Russian economy that allow us to expect its growth rate to accelerate above the exogenously given growth rate of the world economy. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2019 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.32609/j.ruje.5.35233 https://doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.5.35233 https://rujec.org/article/35233/ https://rujec.org/article/35233/download/pdf/ en

10.32609/j.ruje.5.35507 2019-04-17 rujec

The phantom of technological unemployment Kapeliushnikov,Rostislav technological change labor demand compensation theory technological unemployment computerization robotics Russian Journal of Economics 5(1): 88-116 Nowadays there are many gloomy prophecies provided by both technologists and economists about the detrimental effects of the so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution on aggregate employment and its composition. These prophecies imply that in the near future we will face Robocalypse — a massive replacement of people by machines alongside an explosion in joblessness. This paper provides theoretical, empirical and historical evidence that the phenomenon of technological unemployment is a phantom. The most general results can be summarized as follows: in the long run, reduction in labor demand under the impact of new technologies is merely a theoretical possibility that has never before been realized in practice; at the level of individual firms, there is a strong positive relationship between innovations and employment growth; at the sectoral level, technological changes cause a multidirectional employment response, since different industries are at different stages of the life cycle; at the macro level, technological progress acts as a positive or neutral, but not a negative factor; a surge in technological unemployment, even in the short-term, seems a remote prospect since in coming decades the pace of technological change is unlikely to be fast enough by historical standards; the impact of new technologies on labor supply may be a more serious problem than their impact on labor demand; technological changes seem to have a much greater effect on the composition of employment than on its level. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2019 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.32609/j.ruje.5.35507 https://doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.5.35507 https://rujec.org/article/35507/ https://rujec.org/article/35507/download/pdf/ en

10.32609/j.ruje.5.35234 2019-04-17 rujec

Global trends and national goals: Russia approaches a new model of economic growth Mau,Vladimir economic policy economic growth national projects global crisis sanctions Russia Russian Journal of Economics 5(1): 27-45 This paper deals with global trends and their influence on Russian economic and social performance. A new economic crisis is looming, and the lack of institutional reforms, which were put on the agenda by the crisis of 2008–2009, is a source of current concern. In 2018 Russian authorities announced a set of national goals and projects as the central point of social and economic policy for 2018–2024. The new economic growth policy includes the shift from the demand-side growth model to the supply-side one, broad implementation of project methods in economic policy, and continuation of conservative fiscal and monetary policy. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2019 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.32609/j.ruje.5.35234 https://doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.5.35234 https://rujec.org/article/35234/ https://rujec.org/article/35234/download/pdf/ en

10.32609/j.ruje.5.35485 2019-04-17 rujec

Relative social inequality in the world: Rigidity against the economic growth, 1992–2016 Grigoryev,Leonid M. Pavlyushina,Victoria inequality economic growth clusters income distribution Russian Journal of Economics 5(1): 46-66 The study of economic growth and social inequality goes back to the works of S. Kuznets, A. Atkinson, P. Krugman, J. Stiglitz, T. Piketti, and B. Milanovic. Statistical analysis of social inequalities for a large set of countries, divided into seven clusters, was conducted for the period 2000–2016. The share of incomes of the 10th decile was used as a measure of inequality. The hypothesis of the positive impact of economic growth on the reduction of social inequality was tested. Stylized facts on an array of 106 countries for the period under review indicate a high degree of stability of the level of inequality in most groups, especially in the most developed countries, and in particular in the Anglo-Saxon ones. The distribution of key socioeconomic and even political indicators for clusters shows their strong relationship with the structure of cluster inequality. This makes it possible to significantly deepen the analysis, in particular the one concerning the stages of world development. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2019 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.32609/j.ruje.5.35485 https://doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.5.35485 https://rujec.org/article/35485/ https://rujec.org/article/35485/download/pdf/ en

10.32609/j.ruje.5.35506 2019-04-17 rujec

Can emerging markets be a source of global troubles again? Dabrowski,Marek emerging markets financial crisis currency crisis crisis prevention spill-over contagion Russian Journal of Economics 5(1): 67-87 After two turbulent decades (1980s and 1990s) when emerging-market economies were frequent victims of financial crises, in the first two decades of the 21st century their macroeconomic performance improved. Nevertheless, there were three crisis episodes that hit some of these countries: (i) the spill-over effects of the global financial crisis in 2008–2009; (ii) the consequences of the decline in commodity prices in 2014–2016 for their exporters; (iii) the turbulence in Argentina and Turkey in 2018. Currency crises in Argentina and Turkey in 2018 underlined again the key role of prudent domestic policies. Early policy correction can help to prevent a crisis and avoid its economic, social and political costs. If crisis cannot be avoided, the comprehensive anti-crisis package, including up-front monetary and fiscal adjustment, should be adopted as quickly as possible to arrest market panic and reverse negative expectations. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2019 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.32609/j.ruje.5.35506 https://doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.5.35506 https://rujec.org/article/35506/ https://rujec.org/article/35506/download/pdf/ en

10.32609/j.ruje.5.38706 2019-07-31 rujec

Import and export of high-tech products in Russian manufacturing companies Fedyunina,Anna Averyanova,Yuliya export of high-tech products import of semi-finished products Russian economy. Russian Journal of Economics 5(2): 199-210 The paper explores the relationship between the import of semi-finished products and means of production and the export of high-tech products in Russian manufacturing companies. The key question of the research is whether the export of high-tech products is connected with the import of complex components and semi-finished products. The study confirms that the export of high-tech products is determined by the import of high-tech semi-finished products for the export-intensive Russian manufacturing companies. The research does not find any relationship between the import of equipment and means of production and the export of high-tech products. This has important implications for Russia’s structural policy aimed at expanding exports of high-tech products. First, introducing protectionist measures in relation to the import of foreign components should take place gradually to allow companies to adapt to the new conditions. Secondly, they should proceed selectively in order to allow access of Russian exporters to critical components and means of production that have no Russian counterparts. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2019 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.32609/j.ruje.5.38706 https://doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.5.38706 https://rujec.org/article/38706/ https://rujec.org/article/38706/download/pdf/ en

10.32609/j.ruje.5.38703 2019-07-31 rujec

Confidence in future monetary policy as a way to overcome the liquidity trap Kuznetsova,Olga Merzlyakov,Sergey Pekarski,Sergey liquidity trap unconventional monetary policy time inconsistency. Russian Journal of Economics 5(2): 117-135 The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 has changed the landscape for monetary policy. Many central banks in developed economies had to employ various unconventional policy tools to overcome a liquidity trap. These included large-scale asset purchase programs, forward guidance and negative interest rate policies. While recently, some central banks were able to return to conventional monetary policy, for many countries the effectiveness of unconventional policies remains an issue. In this paper we assess diverse practices of unconventional monetary policy with a particular focus on expectations and time consistency. The principal aspect of successful policy in terms of overcoming a liquidity trap is the confidence that interest rates will remain low for a prolonged period. However, forming such expectations faces the problem of time inconsistency of optimal policy. We discuss some directions to solve this problem. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2019 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.32609/j.ruje.5.38703 https://doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.5.38703 https://rujec.org/article/38703/ https://rujec.org/article/38703/download/pdf/ en

10.32609/j.ruje.5.38704 2019-07-31 rujec

The Belt and Road turns five Baltensperger,Michael Dadush,Uri China international trade trade agreements development globalization. Russian Journal of Economics 5(2): 136-153 China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an international trade and development strategy. Launched in 2013, it is one of the ways that China asserts its role in world affairs and captures the opportunities of globalization. The BRI has the potential to enhance development prospects across the world and in China, but that potential might not be realized because the BRI’s objectives are too broad and ill-defined, and its execution is too often non-transparent, lacking in due diligence and uncoordinated. This article documents the background and context of the BRI, recounts what is known about the extent of the initiative and specifies its various motivations. It highlights that the initiative meets very large infrastructure investments gaps, which is welcome and needed, and that China’s goal of forging stronger links with its trading partners around the world are legitimate, so long, of course, as the underlying intent remains peaceful. Though many observers welcome the BRI, many others oppose it for good reasons, while others misunderstand it and oppose it for bad reasons. The paper identifies and discusses concerns about the initiative that relate to its geopolitical objectives, its priorities, its geographic scope, the role of state-owned enterprises, the allocation of resources, issues of transparency and of due diligence. Particularly, it shows that this initiative deals with a vast number of countries that are in very different states of development and that an apparent lack of well-defined priorities is holding the initiative back. The paper also highlights the issue of debt overload which is distressing several BRI countries and discourages further projects. It points briefly to possible improvements that China and the other stakeholders in the BRI can make to get the most out of their investments. The BRI, to be effective, needs to meet the basic conditions of a trade and development strategy, which are clear objectives, adequate resources, selectivity, a workable implementation plan, due diligence and clear communication. Involvement of multilateral lenders could help with this. Finally, China has to improve the evaluation of project’s risks and costs and step up its due diligence approach to demonstrate that it respects the long-term interests of those countries that are at the receiving end of its BRI projects. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2019 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.32609/j.ruje.5.38704 https://doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.5.38704 https://rujec.org/article/38704/ https://rujec.org/article/38704/download/pdf/ en

10.32609/j.ruje.5.38705 2019-07-31 rujec

The structure of public spending and economic growth in Russia Balaev,Alexey public expenditures expenditures structure productive expenditures economic growth econometric model Russian Journal of Economics 5(2): 154-176 This paper examines how Russia’s GDP growth responds to changes in the structure of general government spending. We consider models with expenditures as a percentage of total spending and expenditures as a percentage of GDP. Each model is constructed as a structural vector autoregression (SVAR). We show that redistribution in favor of productive expenditures (national economy, education, healthcare) increases the rate of economic growth, and an increase in the share of unproductive expenditures (national defense, social policy) reduces it. The maximum positive effect comes from expenditures on the national economy: their increase by 1% of GDP with constant total expenditures increases the growth rate of GDP by 1.1 p.p. An increase in expenditures on education by 1% of GDP with constant total expenses contributes +0.8 p.p. to the growth rate of GDP. The corresponding effect of healthcare expenditures is +0.1 p.p. Defense and social spending make negative contributions: –2.1 and –0.7 p.p. respectively. These results are consistent with existing estimates of fiscal multipliers for Russia and calculations based on data from other countries and cross-country data. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2019 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.32609/j.ruje.5.38705 https://doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.5.38705 https://rujec.org/article/38705/ https://rujec.org/article/38705/download/pdf/ en

10.32609/j.ruje.5.34753 2019-07-31 rujec

Russia’s diversification prospects Lyubimov,Ivan export diversification economic complexity export destinations. Russian Journal of Economics 5(2): 177-198 The Russian economy heavily relies on exports of its natural resources. However, the resource-based status quo does not seem to be the route towards Russia’s long-run prosperity. To improve its position in the global income ranking, Russia needs to diversify its exports and make them more complex. Using highly detailed data on trade flows and applying network theory apparatus, we evaluate the level of export complexity in Russia from 1995 to 2016 and compare it with that of its BRICS fellow members. We find that Russia is stagnant with respects to its relative level of export complexity. This sluggishness embraced the entire period between 1995 and 2016, much longer than the stage of anemic growth that started there a decade ago. We also conclude that the current stock of know-how in Russia is relatively low and fragmented, thus not letting Russia diversify into a broad range of more complex products. Russia might also need to export a wider variety of products to richer economies. Today, on a par with Brazil and South Africa, it supplies a broader range of goods to its slowly growing next-door neighbors. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2019 Research Note text/html info:doi:10.32609/j.ruje.5.34753 https://doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.5.34753 https://rujec.org/article/34753/ https://rujec.org/article/34753/download/pdf/ en

10.32609/j.ruje.5.38073 2019-10-21 rujec

The impact of currency crises on economic growth and foreign direct investment: The analysis of emerging and developing economies Abdushukurov,Nurilla currency crises economic growth foreign direct investment exchange market pressure index generalized method of moments. Russian Journal of Economics 5(3): 220-250 In this paper, the discussion centers on the possible effects of currency crises on different economic indicators, with special attention to economic growth and foreign direct investment. There is insufficient research on this topic to draw any firm conclusions about the associations between currency crises and aforementioned variables. In fact, it appears that the impact of currency crises on economic growth and foreign direct investment is negative respectively. However, this study indicates that foreign direct investment can be positively correlated with currency crises as contrary to the common belief. The current study analyzes these relationships through dynamic panel models. The annual panel data for 71 emerging and developing countries are extracted from reliable databases for the time period of 2005–2014. Generalized method of moments estimators are used to obtain efficient and consistent results so as to reach necessary conclusions. The majority of estimated coefficients are significant and unbiased statistically, and also consistent with the economic theories proposed. The main results indicate that the presence of a currency crisis in a particular economy has a negative impact on economic growth, while its effect on foreign investment inflows is most likely positive. Robustness tests demonstrate that used models in the study are both economically and econometrically robust and valid. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2019 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.32609/j.ruje.5.38073 https://doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.5.38073 https://rujec.org/article/38073/ https://rujec.org/article/38073/download/pdf/ en

10.32609/j.ruje.5.47349 2019-10-21 rujec

Monetary policy and the effect of the oil prices pass-through to inflation Kartaev,Philipp Medvedev,Ilya oil prices inflation targeting exchange rate pass-through effect monetary policy. Russian Journal of Economics 5(3): 211-219 The paper examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation, as well as the impact of the choice of the monetary policy regime on the strength of this influence. We used dynamic models on panel data for the countries of the world for 2000–2017. It is shown that the impact of changes in oil prices on inflation is carried out predominantly through the channel of exchange rate. The paper demonstrates the influence of the transition to inflation targeting on the nature of the relationship between oil price shocks and inflation. This effect is asymmetrical: during periods of rising oil prices, inflation targeting reduces the effect of the oil prices pass-through, limiting the negative effects of shock. During periods of decline in oil prices, this monetary policy regime, in contrast, contributes to a stronger pass-through, helping to reduce inflation. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2019 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.32609/j.ruje.5.47349 https://doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.5.47349 https://rujec.org/article/47349/ https://rujec.org/article/47349/download/pdf/ en

10.32609/j.ruje.5.47348 2019-10-21 rujec

Sociology of individual tragedies. Homicides and suicides: Cross-country cluster analysis Grigoryev,Leonid M. Popovets,Lyubov homicides suicides sociology inequality Russia transformation BRICS Russian Journal of Economics 5(3): 251-276 Sociology and psychology closely study the phenomena of homicide and suicide among countries of the world, but both remain little studied in the context of the levels of countries’ development and international comparisons. Developed countries (in terms of GDP per capita) show a decrease in the relative rate of homicides, but the case of suicides is not so explicit. This paper examines the relative levels of suicides and homicides all around the world in the context of socio-economic indices as well as indicators of mental health among the population. Addressing the example of the BRICS countries, the authors discuss the impact of economic imbalances on homicide and suicide levels. The analysis demonstrates that social inequality determines cross-country differences for relative levels in terms of homicide rates, including the course of events in the post-Soviet countries. And in the case of Russia, it is possible to make a conclusion not only about the presence of deep inter-regional differences, but also about a large-scale reduction in the frequency of two tragic phenomena between 2000 and 2017 during the economic recovery. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2019 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.32609/j.ruje.5.47348 https://doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.5.47348 https://rujec.org/article/47348/ https://rujec.org/article/47348/download/pdf/ en

10.32609/j.ruje.5.47422 2019-10-21 rujec

The influence of conference calls’ semantic characteristics on the company market performance: Text analysis Fyodorova,Elena Sayakhov,Ruslan Demin,Igor Afanasyev,Dmitriy conference call semantic analysis thematic analysis non-financial information neural network MLP linguistic glossaries Russian Journal of Economics 5(3): 297-320 The purpose of the study is to find out the influence of semantic (emotional coloring, length and complexity of the text) and thematic features (environmental, corporate-social and legal context) of conference calls with market analysts and investors on future company performance (CAR) and analysts’ recommendation for the share. The empirical framework of the research includes annual conference calls of public companies on the Moscow (MOEX) and London Stock Exchanges (LSE) from 2015 to 2019. The research methodology is based on the semantic analysis of the call text by using the linguistic dictionaries NRC 2010 and Corporate Social Responsibility 2016. The results of the study illustrate the significant impact of textual features of the conference call (the general tone of the call, the tone of management and the negative tone of analysts, the length and complexity of the text) on the abnormal stock returns (for 3, 14, 30 days). This relation is consistent for companies of both stock exchanges, but diverges in terms of the influence of the thematic characteristics of the call that can be explained by the mandatory disclosure of this information by European public companies (ESG Reports), as opposed to voluntary publication by Russian companies. The results can be applied both by the management of public companies in order to improve companies’ attractiveness (perception and transparency) and its market value in the short and medium-term period, and by investors to manage effectively the portfolio by predicting the future dynamics of the company’s share price after a conference call based on semantic tone and thematic features. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2019 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.32609/j.ruje.5.47422 https://doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.5.47422 https://rujec.org/article/47422/ https://rujec.org/article/47422/download/pdf/ en

10.32609/j.ruje.5.33497 2019-10-21 rujec

The effects of trust mediator and education level moderator on adoption of Islamic banking system in Tajikistan Ashurov,Sharofiddin Abdullah Othman,Anwar Hasan Islamic banking system mediating and moderators role trust education level SEM survey data Tajikistan Russian Journal of Economics 5(3): 277-296 High levels of trust and education are essential factors in the banking industry, especially for an Islamic banking system that is Shariah-based. Therefore, this paper seeks to measure the impact of trust and educational level on the decision as to whether to adopt Islamic banking in Tajikistan for business activities. The data of the study was developed based on a survey and collected through a distributed questionnaire. A total of 408 respondents were obtained from 14 banks in Tajikistan. The study adopted the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) approach (using AMOS version 22.00) to examine these relationships. The findings of the study revealed that relative advantage and product knowledge were statistically significant in influencing perceived trust in Islamic banks, while perceived trust in Islamic banks had a directly significant impact on the adoption of the Islamic banking system in Tajikistan. Also it found that perceived trust plays a mediating role between awareness and adoption of the Islamic Banking system. This indicates that banks’ customers in Tajikistan have more trust in, and prefer dealing with, a banking system that is Shariah-based in line with their Islamic beliefs. In addition, the findings revealed that educational level plays a significant moderating role between the awareness of Islamic banks and the adoption of the Islamic banking system. The findings of the study therefore may assist policy makers to improve the current banking industry, by focusing on the Islamic banking system that would be able to restore trust and create interest among the Muslim majority population as they believe in the Islamic banking system, which will contribute positively to economic growth. info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2405-4739 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/2618-7213 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Non-profit partnership "Voprosy Ekonomiki" 2019 Research Article text/html info:doi:10.32609/j.ruje.5.33497 https://doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.5.33497 https://rujec.org/article/33497/ https://rujec.org/article/33497/download/pdf/ en cGFnZT0xJnNldD1ydWplYyZmcm9tPSZ1bnRpbD0mbWV0YWRhdGFfcHJlZml4PW9haV9kYw==