Corresponding author: Renata Yanbykh ( ryanbykh@hse.ru ) © 2020 Non-profit partnership “Voprosy Ekonomiki”.
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), which permits to copy and distribute the article for non-commercial purposes, provided that the article is not altered or modified and the original author and source are credited.
Citation:
Yanbykh R, Saraikin V, Lerman Z (2020) Changes in Russia’s agrarian structure: What can we learn from agricultural census? Russian Journal of Economics 6(1): 26-41. https://doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.6.49746
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The classification of agricultural producers by legal-organizational form (agricultural enterprises, peasant (family farms), household plots and gardening associations), traditionally used by the Russian official statistics, is outdated and masks the dynamic changes that have taken place. Due to the lack of output and sales data in 2016 agricultural census, the paper uses some assumptions to calculate the so called “standard revenue” as a measure of the potential output in each census farm. The results highlight that there is only a small share of commercial production units in Russia and there is high heterogeneity of agricultural producers within each legal-organizational farm type. Contrary to a priori expectations, a large number of household plots became commercialized between the previous census in 2006 and the latest census in 2016 and they contribute 19% of the standard revenue of all commercial census units, more than the share of family farms. These results suggest that the old classification used for statistical purposes does not reflect adequately the dynamic changes stemming from the response to market signals.
agricultural census, agrarian structure, farm classification in Russia.
Historically in Russia’s statistical system, farms are classified into four legal-organizational forms:
The classification by legal-organizational form is a legacy of the Soviet system. Many researchers have concluded, however, that the legal-organizational form is not a good measure of farm size. We see from Table
Descriptive statistics of the size of farms of various types by agricultural land, 2016 (quantiles, median, and mean per farm in hectares).
Ag land | Min | 5% | 25% | Median | Mean | 75% | 95% | Max |
Ag enterprises | 0.0 | 0.0 | 128 | 953 | 3187.0 | 3422 | 13 587 | 341 092 |
Peasant farms | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9 | 60 | 329.6 | 270 | 1490 | 40 443 |
Household plots | 0.0 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.52 | 0.21 | 0.77 | 16 073 |
Gardening associations | 0.0 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 84.3 |
Agricultural Census 2016 made it possible to obtain a large array of data, on the basis of which a new classification of farms by size can be proposed. In international practice, farms are typically classified by size, with size measured by land area, by value of output, or by sales revenue.
In this article, we tried to devise a farm classification based on sales revenue, similar to the U.S. system (USDA, 2019), but had to overcome the difficulty created by the missing sales revenue for farms other than agricultural enterprises. To this end, the so-called standard revenue methodology was used;
Our methodology uses two sources of data: (1) the agricultural census (2006 and 2016) that covers all farms (agricultural producers) in Russia and presents strictly quantitative (non-monetary) information — excluding quantities produced; (2) annual reports of agricultural enterprises (corporate farms) consolidated regionally and nationally, with monetary information about production costs and sales revenue. None of the sources provides price information or information about the value of output.
In order to calculate standard revenue, we must introduce the concept and calculate standard area and standard headcount for each farm.
Classification by land area is straightforward: the agricultural census (for both 2006 and 2016) provides detailed information about the area of the respondent farms (broken down by land type and by crop). Total land area is determined by adding up the different types of land (arable, orchards, hay meadows, pastures, etc.) and the land sown to different crops from the census without any weighting.
Each farm is characterized by its own cropping pattern, i.e., the mix of areas sown to different crops. The areas sown to different crops are all expressed in physical hectares and in principle, can be added up to give the total sown area of a farm. Yet each hectare may be valued differently depending on whether it is used to grow wheat, corn, or potatoes, just for example. To reflect the cropping pattern of the farm, the areas sown to different crops are aggregated into a so-called standard area of the farm. The standard area is the weighted sum of all crop areas as reported in the census, with the weights calculated nationally as the production costs per hectare of a particular crop relative to the production cost of cereals per hectare (the production costs are aggregated for all of Russia for each crop). The standard area is thus expressed in so-called “wheat hectares.” The costs are not reported in the census: they are obtained from the annual reports filed by farm enterprises, which are consolidated nationally by the Ministry of Agriculture (the annual reports also give the respective cropped areas). The cost-based standard-area weights are thus macro-level (not farm-level) coefficients that are calculated nationally from consolidated annual reports.
The livestock herd of each farm is similarly characterized by a certain composition of animal species. Unlike the sown area, animals of different species cannot be directly aggregated, and we first have to convert them into standard head that can be summed. The standard headcount, similarly to the standard area, is the weighted sum of the animal heads as reported for the census farm, with the weights calculated nationally as the production costs per physical head of each species relative to the production costs per cow. The standard head is thus expressed in “cow units” (or “livestock units” in Eurostat terminology).
To conclude the first part of the methodological description, we summarize that standard land and standard livestock headcount are calculated for each census farm using the physical land areas by crop and the physical headcount by animal species, as reported in the census. Physical hectares sown to different crops and physical animals of different species are summed using national, country-level (not farm-level!) cost-based weights from annual reports of farms of one particular type — so-called farm enterprises or corporate farms. At the end of this process, we have the standard areas (in wheat hectares) and the standard headcount (in cow units) for all census farms.
Neither quantities produced, nor the value of output, nor sales revenue is reported in the Russian agricultural census (or in other periodic farm surveys): only information about sown areas and livestock headcount is collected (by crop or animal species). Eurostat calculates the value of output as the product of the quantity produced by the average market price (over three or five years). In Russia, this approach has been ruled out for practical reasons: Russia is much larger than any of the Eurostat countries, and no reliable price information is available with sufficiently high regional resolution.
In the absence of price information for the calculation of the value of output, Russian researchers have to rely on the sales revenue as the only monetary indicator of farm operations. Sales revenue (by crop and by animal product) is available in annual financial reports, but only those of one particular farm type: farm enterprises or corporate farms. Farms of other types (peasant farms, household plots, individual entrepreneurs), in most cases, do not have to prepare annual reports, and no sales revenue is available for them in the statistical databases. By calculating the reported revenue numbers (in rubles) for crops and animal products, we would obtain respectively the aggregated crop sales revenue and the aggregated livestock revenue in each corporate farm.
While the annual reports are indeed available for some 20,000 agricultural enterprises in Russia, considerations of practical access limit the use of these data to regional aggregates (consolidated regional reports for some 80 administrative units, including oblasts, federal republics, and krays). For each region, we use the methodology described in the previous step to calculate the standard area and the standard animal headcount for the active agricultural enterprises by applying conversion coefficients derived from national cost data in nationally consolidated annual reports.
Dividing the regional crop sales by the regional standard area, we obtain the standard crop revenue per (standard) hectare; similarly, dividing the regional livestock revenue by the regional standard headcount, we obtain the regional standard livestock revenue per (standard) head.
Thus, for active corporate farms in each region, we have the standard area, the standard headcount, and the standard sales revenue (from crops and from livestock separately). Given this information, we calculate the standard crop sales revenue per standard hectare and the standard livestock sales revenue per standard animal head.
We now boldly assume that the regional sales revenue results per standard hectare and standard head obtained for corporate farms hold also for farms of other types (specifically, peasant farms, household plots, and independent entrepreneurs). We accordingly multiply these regional ratios by the standard area and the standard headcount of each census farm in the corresponding region as calculated in the previous step. We, in effect, use the standard sales revenue calculated for corporate farms to fill in the missing sales revenue numbers for all census farms.
The methodology was validated by running the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test on the original distribution of the reported sales revenue of agricultural enterprises and the calculated distribution of standard revenue for the same agricultural enterprises. The test results do not reject the hypothesis of equal distributions providing support to the proposed methodology.
The stratification by region in the calculation of standard revenue is particularly important as there is considerable variability across regions in both standard crop revenue per hectare and standard livestock revenue per head, which would be lost had we used national averages for revenue. For example, the standard crop revenue in rubles per hectare per year ranged from a maximum of 34,500 in Krasnodar Kray to less than 4,000 in Kirov and Magadan oblasts, Perm and Trans-Baikal krays, and a number of Siberian ethnic republics. The standard livestock revenue similarly varied from a high of 152,700 rubles per head per year in Tula Oblast to a low of less than 50,000 rubles per head per year in a number of Caucasian and Siberian republics. These regional order-of-magnitude differences in crop and livestock revenue per standard unit are naturally carried over to the calculation of per farm standard revenue, as outlined above.
The classification of agricultural producers by standard revenue has led to a breakdown into so-called economic activity classes, which is a refinement of the USDA breakdown into economic sales classes. The Russian farms were grouped into three activity classes by standard revenue in U.S. dollar equivalents:
In the USDA classification, a farm is defined as “any place from which $1,000 or more of agricultural products were produced and sold, or normally would have been sold, during the year” (USDA, 2019, p. VIII). The two lowest economic activity classes — residential and subsistence farms — fall outside the USDA definition of a farm, which corresponds to the class of commercial farms in the proposed classification. The results of classification are presented in Table
Structure of economic activity classes by legal-organizational form in the 2016 Agricultural Census.
All census farms | Farms without agricultural production | Agricultural producers | |||
residential & recreational farms | subsistence farms |
commercial farms | |||
Number of farms, thousands | 35 866.8 | 7405.1 | 22 383.6 | 2903.4 | 3174.7 |
All census farms by legal form, % | |||||
Enterprises | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0* | 0* | 0.8 |
Peasant farms | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 3.3 |
Household plots | 64.4 | 48.9 | 60.9 | 96.3 | 95.8 |
Gardening associations | 35.0 | 50.2 | 39.0 | 3.5 | 0.1 |
Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Agricultural land, thousand hectares | 141 011.5 | 7558.3 | 2181.2 | 1236.3 | 130 035.7 |
Agricultural land by legal form, % | |||||
Enterprises | 63.5 | 53.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 65.8 |
Peasant farms | 27.9 | 25.7 | 1.2 | 3.2 | 28.6 |
Household plots | 8.3 | 21.3 | 77.7 | 95.0 | 5.6 |
Gardening associations | 0.3 | 0 | 20.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Standard revenue, billion rubles | 3 930.4 | 0 | 108.5 | 99.9 | 3 722.0 |
Standard revenue by legal form, % | |||||
Enterprises | 63.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 66.5 | |
Peasant farms | 13.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 14.6 | |
Household plots | 22.3 | 68.5 | 97.2 | 18.9 | |
Gardening associations | 0.9 | 31.5 | 2.6 | 0.0 | |
Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Most of the commercial farms (96% of the group or 3.2 million producers) are household plots; the group also includes about 100,000 peasant farms and 40,000 agricultural enterprises (Table
Characteristics of subsistence and commercial household plots, 2016.
Subsistence household plots | Commercial household plots | |
Number of farms, thousands | 2837.1 | 3041.1 |
Agricultural land per farm, hectares | 0.42 | 2.38 |
Sown area per farm, hectares | 0.13 | 0.46 |
Standard area, standard hectares | 1.36 | 3.29 |
Standard headcount, standard head | 0.17 | 2.32 |
Standard revenue per farm, thousands rubles | 34.71 | 231.60 |
A different perspective is gained by examining the change between 2006 and 2016 Agricultural Censuses (
Structure of legal-organizational farm types by economic activity classes in two censuses (%).
2006 | 2016 | ||||||||
residential | subsistence | commercial | total | residential | subsistence | commercial | total | ||
AgEnt | 2.0 | 3.5 | 94.5 | 100 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 97.8 | 100 | |
PF | 24.9 | 6.9 | 68.3 | 100 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 92.4 | 100 | |
HH | 65.1 | 16.5 | 18.4 | 100 | 70.0 | 14.4 | 15.6 | 100 | |
GAss | 98.8 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 100 | 98.8 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 100 |
Table
Average agricultural land per farm by statistical farm types and economic activity classes (hectares per farm).
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2006 | 2016 | |||||||
residential | subsistence | commercial | all | residential | subsistence | commercial | all | ||
AgEnt | 17.5 | 21.8 | 3010 | 2848 | 27.8 | 36.5 | 3261 | 3187 | |
PF | 3.4 | 15.0 | 213 | 147 | 6.2 | 9.2 | 356 | 330 | |
HH | 0.13 | 0.40 | 1.24 | 0.38 | 0.12 | 0.42 | 2.38 | 0.52 | |
GAss | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.05 |
Changes of mean area of agricultural land per farm by activity class, 2006–2016 (%).
Source: Authors’ calculations based on Table
Commercial farms are a dominant sector in Russian agriculture. They account for fully 95% of the standard revenue of agriculture and control nearly 98% of agricultural and sown area in Russia (Fig.
While the physical stock of land in commercial farms remained fairly constant (the indicators for total land, agricultural land, and sown area), the so-called standard land area increased, boosting the share of commercial farms from 80% to nearly 90% of the total (see Fig.
Share of commercial farms in six performance indicators, 2006 and 2016 (% of respective totals for Russia).
Note: St.Rev — standard revenue, Land — total land area (hectares), AgLand — agricultural land (hectares), St.ha — standard land area (standard hectares), St.head — standard animal headcount (standard head), Sown — sown area (hectares). Sources:
Fig.
Changes of six performance indicators by economic activity class, 2006–2016 (%).
Note: St.Rev — standard revenue, Land — total land area (hectares), AgLand — agricultural land (hectares), St.ha — standard land area (standard hectares), St.head — standard animal headcount (standard head), Sown — sown area (hectares). Sources: Saraikin (2019); Table
The area sown to technical crops in commercial farms increased by 52% between 2006 and 2016, and the area under vegetables grew by 72%, which boosted the standard area despite decreases in the physical area under potatoes (–12%) and perennial orchards (–30%). The standard area in residential and subsistence farms decreased due to the large across-the-board decrease in the sown areas for all crops in these activity classes. The standard animal headcount is also weighted by nationally averaged production costs per physical head, and the increase of this indicator for commercial farms was a direct outcome of the massive increase of about 50% between 2006–2016 in the number of more intensive livestock — pigs and poultry (the number of cows and beef cattle in this period decreased by about 15%). By comparison, the physical headcount of all animal species in residential and subsistence farms decreased quite dramatically (by about 50% and more) between 2006–2016, which naturally resulted in the observed decrease in the standard headcount in these economic activity classes (see Fig.
In the USDA classification by economic sales classes, farms with less than $1,000 are ignored. In the Russian classification by economic activity classes, $1,000 is the threshold between non-commercial and commercial farms. Non-commercial farms with standard revenue up to $1,000 are divided into residential and subsistence family farms, as discussed above, while the commercial farms with standard revenue of more than $1,000 can be subdivided into four subgroups that also follow the USDA classification by economic sales class:
The growth of nominal standard revenue between 2006 and 2016 shows a clear upward trend with average farm size (Fig.
Growth of standard revenue, 2006–2016 (%).
Note: Changes in absolute values of standard revenue, without normalization as in Fig.
All the other performance indicators (total land area, agricultural land area, standard area, standard animal headcount, and sown area) showed noticeable growth for large capitalist farms (40%–70% by most indicators) as opposed to general decline for other economic activity classes (Fig.
Changes of physical indicators by economic activity classes, 2006–2016 (%): Growth by all indicators in large capitalist farms, decline in (almost) all other activity classes (exception: slight growth of total land in residential farms).
Note: St.Rev — standard revenue, Land — total land area (hectares), AgLand — agricultural land (hectares), St.ha — standard land area (standard hectares), St.head — standard animal headcount (standard head), Sown — sown area (hectares). Sources: Saraikin (2019); Tables
The share of large capitalist farms in all performance indicators without exception markedly increased between 2006 and 2016 (Fig.
Share of large capitalist farms in 2006 and 2016 (% of respective totals).
Note: St.Rev — standard revenue, Land — total land area (hectares), AgLand — agricultural land (hectares), St.ha — standard land area (standard hectares), St.head — standard animal headcount (standard head), Sown — sown area (hectares). Sources: Saraikin (2019); Table
Share of small capitalist farms in 2006 and 2016 (% of respective totals).
Note: St.Rev — standard revenue, Land — total land area (hectares), AgLand — agricultural land (hectares), St.ha — standard land area (standard hectares), St.head — standard animal headcount (standard head), Sown — sown area (hectares). Sources: Saraikin (2019); Table
Russia is a huge country spanning eleven time zones, with a great diversity of geographical and agro-climatic conditions. It is not surprising, therefore, that agricultural performance is highly variable across the 80-odd administrative divisions of the second level (oblasts, krays, republics; Fig.
Variability of crop and livestock efficiency measures (standard revenue per hectare and standard revenue per head in thousand rubles) across regions grouped by federal district, 2016.
Source:
The Central Federal District, which includes Moscow and the near-lying oblasts, has the highest performance by both revenue per standard hectare and revenue per standard head (Fig.
Even the high performing federal districts have very low performing regions (Fig.
One-way analysis of variance of crop and livestock efficiency measures by federal district, 2016: Revenue per standard hectare (left panel) and revenue per standard head (right panel), both in thousand rubles.
Note: The horizontal middle bar in each diamond is the mean, the two short horizontal bars near the apexes are the 95% confidence limits. Source:
Analysis of the 2016 agricultural census (
The strong duality by standard revenue is demonstrated in Fig.
Dual structure of Russian agriculture: Concentration of standard revenue in a small number of large farms, 2016.
Source:
Analysis of the 2016 agricultural census highlights the heterogeneity of the agricultural producers within each legal-organizational farm type traditionally identified by Russian official statistics (agricultural enterprises, peasant farms, household plots, gardening associations). Agricultural enterprises and peasant farms produce the bulk of commercial agricultural output, while the commercial output of household plots is produced by a small subset of this huge category of farms. The classification of agricultural producers by legal-organizational form is outdated: some peasant farms produce more revenue than agricultural enterprises and some household plots match or exceed peasant farms by their production. A new farm classification system is required in the new environment, based on sales volumes of the activity class we have defined as commercial farms — some 3.2 million units or 9% of the census farms with annual sales of at least $1,000. This relatively small group of farms contributing 95% of agricultural revenue (see Table
These results suggest that the traditional farm classification used for statistical purposes does not reflect adequately the dynamic changes stemming from the response to market signals. In view of the strong skewness of agrarian structure by both standard revenue and land it may be relevant to revisit the sampling criteria for statistical surveys, eliminating the lower tail of small, recreational and subsistence farms and thus bringing the Russian farm survey criteria more in line with the farm-classification criteria in the U.S. and the E.U.
The agrarian structure changed markedly during the decade 2006-2016, as the corporate farm sector — including the new agroholdings — began regaining the ground it had lost to the family-farm sector after 1990. This is a further indication of the development of market mechanisms in Russia’s agriculture. However, the decrease in the role of small agricultural producers constitutes a distinct danger to national food security and rural development, while the unchecked growth of super-large enterprises biases lobbying efforts, agricultural policies, and budget allocations in favor of the very large producers. To provide a level playing field for all agricultural producers, the government should strive, on the one hand, to ensure a more uniform distribution of agricultural subsidies and, on the other, to assist by every possible means in the development of alternative rural employment opportunities and in integrated development of rural areas. Development of alternative rural employment and rural infrastructure is crucial if we are to achieve the policy goal of supporting only sustainable and market-oriented producers. Subsistence farms should be supported through social budgets earmarked for the development of alternative sources of rural income, not by agricultural production budgets.
The development of massive agroholdings localized in certain regions has had an unexpected negative effect. The local agroholding becomes the sole employer in the region, and yet from considerations of efficiency it must shed labor: there are not enough jobs in the agroholdings for the entire population. Creation of new non-agricultural jobs is a function of infrastructure development and takes time. In the short term, the new rural unemployed either migrate to urban areas in search of employment or retreat into small-scale subsistence farming on their household plot to supplement their pensions. These negative effects play out with special force when the local agroholding goes bankrupt: an entire region is left without sources of employment and income, which leads to abandonment and depopulation as people move elsewhere in search of work. A rural revitalization program approved in June 2019 with a budget of 200 billion rubles annually (Government of the Russian Federation, 2019) is intended for government co-financing of large social-engineering projects in rural areas (roads, housing, water and electricity supply), but however important its potential contribution to rural infrastructure, no amount of comfortable modern housing can replace jobs. Policy makers must address alternative job creation in rural areas as a top priority.