Research Article
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Article title
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Abstract
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Keywords
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1. Introduction
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1. Theoretical description of the economy
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1.1. Long-run equilibrium and the structure of the economy
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1.1.1. Economic equilibrium
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1.1.2. Structure of the economy
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1.2. Structural transformation of the economy following changes in oil prices and the role of the real foreign exchange rate
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1.2.1. The real foreign exchange rate and its role in the economy
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1.2.2. Production capacity of the economy following changes in the foreign exchange rate
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2. Equilibrium model, inflation and economic policy
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2.1. Equilibrium in the goods and money markets (IS-MP model), equilibrium output and the equilibrium real interest rate
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2.1.1. Equilibrium in the goods market: the Investment-Savings (IS) line
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2.1.2. Equilibrium in the money market: the Monetary Policy (MP) line
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2.2. Equilibrium in the foreign exchange market
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2.3. Inflation, inflation expectations, and the relationship between inflation and GDP movements
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2.4. Fiscal policy
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3. Alternative monetary policy under balance of payment shocks
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3.1. Maintaining the foreign exchange rate at the same level or gradual devaluation
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3.2. Sterilized interventions to support the foreign exchange rate
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3.3. Utilization of foreign exchange refinancing tools to address excessive stress in the foreign exchange market
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3.4. Transition to a floating foreign exchange rate with anchored inflation expectations
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3.5. Transition to a floating foreign exchange rate and a temporary increase in interest rates
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3.6. Fiscal policy during an oil shock
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4. Conclusions: The role of the monetary and fiscal policies during balance of payment shocks
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Acknowledgements
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References
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Appendix