Variable;Source;"Time of measurement";Definition
"Annual data"
"Abs. output gap revision";"IMF WEO; Authors’ calculations";"t + 7; t + 1";"Absolute value of the cumulative output gap revision of time t, measured between time t +1 and t +7 in percent of potential GDP. Output gap deviations are calculated using HP filtered WEO data, observed WEO data, or observed OECD data."
"Abs. output gap (HP filtered WEO data)";"IMF WEO; Authors’ calculations";"t + 1";"Absolute value of the initial output gap in time t, in percent of potential GDP. Potential GDP is calculated using a Hodrick-Prescott filter on real GDP data from each fall WEO vintage between 1990 and 2014. The smoothing parameter λ is set to 100 to replicate WEO output gap estimates as close as possible. To ensure accurate smoothing, we run the HP filter on each country-vintage if there is available data from 1980 onwards and at least 15 consecutive observations. WEO data for forecasts five years ahead is included in the HP filter to avoid endpoint bias."
"Abs. output gap (observed WEO/ OECD estimate)";"IMF WEO; OECD";"t + 1";"Absolute value of the initial output gap in time t, in percent of potential GDP. Estimates are obtained from the IMF WEO or the OECD economic outlook."
"Abs. real GDP growth surprise";"IMF WEO; OECD; Authors’ calculations";"t + 1";"Difference between real GDP growth and the mean growth of the last 10 years, in absolute terms. Data are calculated using observed WEO data or observed OECD data."
"Abs. world real GDP growth surprise";"IMF WEO; OECD; Authors’ calculations";"t + 1";"Difference between real world GDP growth and the mean world growth of the last 10 years, in absolute terms. Data are calculated using observed WEO data or observed OECD data."
"Real GDP growth SD";"IMF WEO; OECD; Authors’ calculations";"t + 1";"Standard deviation of domestic real GDP growth over the last 10 years. Data are calculated using observed WEO data or observed OECD data."
Rents/GDP;"World Bank Worldwide Development Indicators";;"Total natural resources rents, in percent of GDP. Defined as the sum of oil, natural gas, coal, mineral, and forest rents."
Inflation;"IMF WEO; Authors’ calculations";;"Bounded CPI-based inflation indicator, derived from the intertemporal consumption optimization of consumer in a discrete time framework. The indicator is calculated as the inflation rate divided by one plus the rate of inflation —expressed in decimals rather than percent —such that the indicator is always bounded between zero and one."
"Inflation targeting";"IMF Finance & Development";;"Dummy variable for an inflation targeting framework; 1 = yes, 0 = no."
"Cyclical fiscal rules";"IMF Fiscal Rules Dataset";;"Dummy variable for a national or supranational stabilization fiscal rule; 1 = yes, 0 = no."
OECD;"Authors’ calculations";;"Dummy variable for OECD member economy as of 1990; 1 = yes, 0 = no."
LIC;"IMF; Authors’ calculations";;"Dummy variable for low income country as classified by the IMF; 1 = yes, 0 = no."
"Small economy";"Authors’ calculations";;"Dummy variable for small economy; 1 = yes, 0 = no. Defined as economies with average populations below the 10th percentile of the population distribution."
"Time index";"Authors’ calculations";;"Linear trend accounting for the learning process of estimating the output gap across the sample period."
GDDS;"IMF; Authors’ calculations";;"Dummy variable for IMF member using the General Data Dissemination System; 1 = yes, 0 = no."
SDDS;"IMF; Authors’ calculations";;"Dummy variable for IMF member using the Special Data Dissemination System; 1 = yes, 0 = no."
Conflict;"World Bank Worldwide Development Indicators";;"Dummy variable based on battle-related deaths; 1 = more than 1,000 deaths, 0 = all other cases."
"Bureaucratic quality";"International Country Risk Guide";;"Ranking of quality of bureaucracy and institutional strength. Higher ranking corresponds to stronger bureaucratic institutions."
"Control of corruption";"International Country Risk Guide";;"Ranking of corruption within the political system. Higher ranking corresponds to less corruption."
"Abs. average future real GDP growth differential";"IMF WEO; Authors’ calculations";"t + 7";"Absolute value of the difference between the mean real GDP growth of the last five years and the mean real GDP growth of the following five years."
"Quarterly data"
"Output gap (initial)";"National authorities; Authors’ calculations";"t + 1";"Value of the initial output gap in time t, in percent of potential GDP. Potential GDP is calculated using a Hodrick-Prescott filter on real GDP data with a smoothing parameter of 1600. To avoid endpoint bias in the HP filter, observed real GDP data is spliced with real GDP growth expectations data to extend the series past the endpoint of actual data."
"Output gap (final)";"National authorities; Authors’ calculations";;"Constructed using the same method as the initial output gap, with data available through 2014Q2."
"Real GDP";"National authorities";"t + 1";"Real GDP in local currency."
"Real GDP expectations";"National authorities";"t + 1";"Real GDP growth expectations of market participants surveyed by country central banks, in percent."
"Headline inflation";"National authorities";"t + 1";"Consumer price index, 12 month percent change"
"Core inflation";"National authorities";"t+ 1";"Core consumer price index, 12 month percent change"
"Inflation expectations";"National authorities";"t + 1";"Twelve-month ahead inflation expectations of market participants surveyed by country central banks, in percent."
"Policy rate";"National authorities";"t + 1";"Nominal interest rate, in percent."